Brisk Wind Advisory 231, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term solutions continue with good run to run
continuity that they have shown the last week or so. There are
still some fairly big changes around 60 hours each cycle that have
to be dealt with. 30/12Z solutions initialized well against the
30/18Z surface analysis with good positions with features about
3 mb lower across the area. SREF/NAM precipitation solution
favored for the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging building over the area as a 510 dam
low moves northeast across the Arctic with a trough persisting
over the area just offshore of the Arctic Coast. The ridge axis
will lie from over the Southeast Panhandle Coast to Yakutat to St
Lawrence Island by late this evening, and from Dawson YT to Noatak
and west across the Chukchi Sea by Sunday morning. As the ridge
moves north a 510 dam low over the Eastern Aleutians will move
north over the Bering Sea over the Pribilofs, then slowly west. A
shortwave will move north in the Pacific to lie from the low
southeast over Sand Point into the northeast Pacific by Sunday
afternoon, and by Monday morning will lie from Nunivak Island east
over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, then over the Panhandle. The ridge
will be over the Eastern Brooks Range and Arctic Plain by Monday
morning with a 530 dam high near 75N 180. The shortwave will
continue to move north Monday and weaken while a weak ridge builds
in behind it, and a 504 dam low moves over Sand Point. The low
will absorb the low that was moving west early Tuesday. The high
near the Dateline will move to the Central Arctic Monday night at
528 dam. At 850 hpa...Warmer air pushing up from the south will
raise temperatures south of the Brooks Range into 0 to -10 range
by Sunday morning, while to the north of the Range the
temperatures will rise to -10 to -15.

Surface...High pressure persists over the Yukon Territory with
a broad area of low pressure over mainland Alaska and the eastern
Bering Sea. 1040 mb high persists in the Upper Tanana Valley and
Yukon Territory with leeside low enhancing today and tonight as
976 mb lows in the Eastern Aleutians rotate around each other and
a 978 mb low moves to Bristol Bay then over the Kuskokwim Delta as
it dissipates Sunday morning. A weather front associated with the
lows will spread mainly snow over the lower Yukon Delta, parts of
the Western Interior, and the Seward Peninsula. Strong pressure
gradient developing across the Alaska Range and down the Tanana
Valley will relax by late Sunday. A 1012 dam low just offshore
from Point Barrow will continue to move northeast into the
Beaufort Sea tonight. A 1038 mb high over Siberia will move to the
Siberian Arctic Coast by Sunday morning, then near 75N 180 by
Sunday evening.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, patchy fog, flurries, and
winds turning onshore for most areas at 5 to 15 mph. For the
Northwest Coast winds will be turning offshore and increasing as
the pressure gradient across the Chukchi Sea and Western Arctic is
squeezed.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty active from the Seward
Peninsula south and over St lawrence Island as the lows spin a
front north tonight and pressure gradient gets squeezed across the
Eastern Bering Sea. Models have increase the amount of
precipitation in the lower Yukon Delta so will issue Winter
Weather Advisory for zone 215 to go with the ones already issued.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally quiet, with warming
temperatures across the area. Some gap winds gusting to 55 mph in
the Alaska Range, and Tanana Valley Jet is kicking winds up from
Dot lake to Nenana with winds around Delta Junction gusting to
55 mph and gusts to around 25 mph in Nenana. A weather front will
move across the area from south to north, but not expecting any
precipitation south of the Yukon River as moisture is downsloped
out.

&&

Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low will be moving
into the Western Bering Sea Thursday and Friday, but models area
still all over with the location and strength so will use a blend
for now.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

SDB DEC 17