Brisk Wind Advisory 204, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
551 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern continues over northern Alaska. The 00z
model suite initialized well against the 00z surface analysis and
verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread
remains reasonable in the short range but increases dramatically
in the mid range and extended range. Both run to run as well as
from model family to model family exhibit considerable spread on
the position and strength of several shortwave features moving
north along the building ridge over eastern Alaska and the Yukon.

The differences in position and strength of multiple shortwave
features will manifest themselves in difficult to time surges in
winds over the Alaska Range and northern foothills of the Alaska
Range. Wind strength realized at the surface in these areas will
be highly variable and will alternate between advisory and warning
levels over the next several days as shortwaves moving through
the pattern alternately weaken and strengthen the mountain wave
over the Alaska Range. High Wind Watches have been upgraded to
Warnings as winds are expected to increase dramatically this
afternoon and reach peak intensity late tonight and monday
morning. Wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are expected in these
areas tonight and Monday morning. Another strong wave pushes north
over the Alaska Range Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and
again Wednesday night and Thursday morning and will likely produce
a bump in winds over the Alaska Range and northern foothills
during these time frames.

Temperatures over the interior as a result of the strong chinook
will average well above normal with temperatures reaching the 20s
and lower 30s at times this week especially in the hills.
Temperatures realized at valley level will depend on the strength
of the winds aloft and their ability to scour out lingering valley
inversions. Inversions that linger over interior valley locations
during the day, or reestablish themselves overnight will become
strong as warm air rides over the cold valley floors and will
produce poor dispersion at times.

Strong winds continue to produce reduced visibility along the
northwest Arctic Coast today and are expected to continue through
Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient between a 1036 mb High
pressure system near 80N and 160E and the 960 mb low over the
northern Gulf of Alaska continues to increase. A winter weather
advisory for blowing snow has been issued for this area.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the lower YK Delta
and along the Norton Sound coast for snow and blowing snow
beginning this evening as the 960 my low currently over the
northern pacific makes its way north over Bristol Bay tonight and
Monday morning and over the YK Delta coast Monday as a 980 mb low.
Several inches of snow are expected in these areas and combined
with strong winds is expected to produce visibilities reduced to
one half mile or less at times. Will need to monitor the eastern
north slope for blowing snow reducing visibilities to one half
mile or less on Monday as the gradient increase between the 960 mb
low in the Gulf of Alaska and the 1036 mb high centered near 80N
and 160E.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC DEC 17