Brisk Wind Advisory 201, NWS Fairbanks, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFG 022339
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-031515-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1033 mb high near 80N and 160E will persist through Monday. A 
weather front will track north across the Chukchi Sea tonight.
Another front will move over the Chukchi Sea Monday.

$$

PKZ225-031515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-031515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-031515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-031515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-031515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
239 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run continuity remains good in the short term.
The midrange and extended periods are in general a mess, maybe a
bit better over the Arctic than they are over areas to the south.
System out west is a bit slower than previous solution had it
moving, but they seem to be getting a better handle on it. The
01/12Z solutions initialized okay with the 01/18Z surface
analysis. Precipitation in the GFS and NAM are a bit slow, the
ECMWF is doing better, at least with the timing. Going to go with
an equal blend again today, but lean a bit on the ECMWF
precipitation timing. Extended guidance from WPC, which is using
primarily a blend of the ensemble means, will be favored.

Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging continues to extend southeast over
the Central Arctic Coast from a 541 dam high near 81N 155E and
will remain nearly stationary into Saturday before it is pushed
east. Ridging also extends north over mainland Alaska from a high
well south in the Pacific. the ridging lies from Seward to Ambler
to Point Lay and links up with the ridging over the Arctic. The
ridging will be pushed east to lie from Cordova to Fairbanks to
Wainwright by Saturday morning, and over the Yukon Territory and
Beaufort Sea by Sunday morning. A shortwave over the Eastern
Bering Sea will move east to lie from Chignik to Grayling to Wales
to the north coast of the Gulf of Anadyr by Saturday morning. By
Saturday evening it will lie from Glennallen to Fairbanks to
Ambler to the north coast of the Gulf of Anadyr, and Sunday
morning it will be over the Arctic Coast. A second branch of the
ridge will rotate around the high over the southwest mainland
early Sunday, then from Yakutat to Bettles by Sunday afternoon,
and over the Yukon Territory and Brooks Range Sunday evening. A
low will develop over the North Pacific late Saturday and move to
Bristol Bay by Sunday evening at 504 dam. A strong shortwave
associated with the low will move to the Gulf of Alaska coast
Monday morning, and to the Alaska Range by Monday afternoon. At
850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will be warming
slightly as the -10 isotherm which lies from Dawson YT to Point
Lay moves slowly to the northeast as the front over the West Coast
pushes north and east. It will continue to slowly warm Monday as a
low moves to Bristol Bay and pushes the zero isotherm north of the
Alaska Range into the interior.

Surface...Ridging continues over the Arctic extending south
over the Central Arctic Coast from a 1034 mb high north of the New
Siberian Islands. Ridging extend south over the central Alaska to
Cook Inlet and south over the Pacific. Ridging will slide east as
weather front over the West Coast moves inland. Leeside troughing
developing north of the Alaska Range with gap flow winds
developing. Leeside troughing developing north of the Brooks Range
Saturday. 969 mb low that is driving the front over the West Coast
will remain stationary over the Western Bering Sea into Sunday,
then moves west. As the low moves west a rapidly developing low
will swing north to Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. Strong
Chinook will develop Sunday night across the Alaska Range and over
the southern Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, flurries, areas of fog,
mainly northeast winds. No significant snow expected. Strongest
winds will be over the Northwest Arctic Coast and a Winter Weather
Advisory will remain in effect. Temperatures warming the next few
days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Blizzard Warning remains in
effect for Bering Strait coast. Remainder of the coastal areas
will continue with Winter Weather Advisories. Inland still expect
some heavier snow around Kaltag and the Nulato Hills through
tonight. Conditions will be improving though the night and
Saturday. Expect more snow on Saturday and Saturday night, but no
significant accumulations are expected.

Central and Eastern Interior...Lower pressure moving over the
interior. Leeside troughing developing with gusty gap winds in the
Alaska Range the next couple days, then Chinook developing Monday.
Snow will be moving in with the low pressure and expect up to 2
inches of accumulation by Saturday night in most areas. Locally a
few areas could see up to 4 inches. Temperatures will continue the
warming trend, and with a full blown Chinook developing Monday
expect temperatures from Fairbanks south to spike up to around 40
in Denali, and 30 around Fairbanks Monday and Tuesday. Gap winds
to around 45 mph tonight and Saturday night in the Alaska Range,
and Saturday night in the Eastern Brooks Range. Chinook winds may
hit 80 mph Monday in the Alaska Range.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Winds through the Alaska Range
will continue to be strong and gusty into mid week. Low moves from
the Gulf of Alaska to the Eastern Bering Sea and will spread snow
up most of the West Coast and Western interior through the week.
Another low will move from the Gulf to the Eastern Bering Sea
Wednesday evening with another round of snow. Temperatures warming
in the southern Interior Monday and Tuesday, then slightly cooler.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235.

&&

SDB DEC 17