Brisk Wind Advisory 199, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run continuity looks good in the short term. There
seems to be a bit better agreement in the midrange, though the
feature heights and pressures from the GFS are a bit stronger than
the other solutions. The 30/12Z solutions lined up well with the
30/18Z surface analysis. With good continuity it seems like an
equal blend in the way to go today at least in the short term.
Will need to tweak the temperatures on an individual basis.
Extended guidance from WPC, which used primarily a blend of the
Ensemble means, will be favored.

Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging extends southeast over the Central
Arctic Coast from a 541 dam high near 81N 160E and will rotate
west with the axis moving over Wainwright by Friday afternoon,
and over the Chukchi Sea by Friday morning. As that is happening a
509 dam low near the Bering Strait will move just south of Wrangel
Island, then gets absorbed into a 486 dam low in the Bering Sea.
Ridging south of the Bering Strait will continue to move east
squeezing out a col over the Central and Eastern Interior, with
the axis moving to lie from King Salmon to Cape Lisburne by Friday
morning, and from Cordova to Point Lay by Saturday morning. The
low in the Bering Sea will slide east a bit as an associated wave
pushes east over the Eastern Bering Sea by Friday morning, and to
the Bering Strait by Friday afternoon. The wave will push inland a
bit as it moves north up the coast and merges with troughing over
the Chukchi Sea and Arctic Coast. A 506 dam low over Banks Island
will drift southwest to MacKenzie Bay by Friday morning with
troughing extending west over the Eastern Arctic Coast. At 850
hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will remain fairly
static from -5C to -15C as the -10 isotherm moves to lie from
Dawson YT to Point Lay by Friday evening as some warm air in
advance of the next system pushes north over the Lower Yukon
Delta.

Surface...Ridging continues over the Arctic extending south
over the Central Arctic Coast from a 1034 mb high north of the New
Siberian Islands. Weak high pressure remains over the Central and
Eastern Interior and continues to weaken. A vertically stacked
low that was over Cold Bay yesterday has move to south of the Gulf
of Alaska at 990 mb and will continue to move east and southeast. A
trough of low pressure over the Western Interior will merge
overnight with low pressure around a 963 mb low in the Western
Bering Sea that will be pushing into the Eastern Bering Sea
tonight. A weather front associated with the low in the Bering Sea
will move to St Lawrence Island by midnight and to the West Coast
by Friday morning. Lee side troughing redevelops Friday and high
pressure over the Copper River Basin strengthens so expect the
pressure gradient to tighten up across the Alaska Range Friday
night with strong gap winds developing in the Alaska Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, flurries, areas of fog,
mainly northeast winds. No significant snow expected. Strongest
winds will be over the Northwest Arctic Coast as they increase as
the weather front moves into the area Friday afternoon and
southeast winds increase to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Blizzard developing on St
Lawrence Island tonight and Warning has been issued. As the front
move to the coast Advisories are in effect for coastal areas south
of the Bering Strait. Will be issuing Winter Weather Advisories
for zones 207, 208, 209, and 210 as near Blizzard conditions
develop. Strongest winds will be on St Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait Coast with gusts around 50 mph. Inland conditions
not as poor as winds will not be as strong. Expect some areas of
Blowing Snow reducing visibiltiy, and some heavier snow around
Kaltag and the Nulato Hills where around 7 inches of snow may
fall.

Central and Eastern Interior...Weak high pressure over the area
will continue to weaken as the low approaches from the west.
Leeside troughing developing and gap winds will increase Friday
through the Alaska Range and continue into late Saturday. Gap
winds in the Eastern Brooks Range will pick up Saturday afternoon
and diminish Sunday. Weak trough over the Upper Yukon Flats will
slide south tonight spreading clouds to the Alaska Range and a
chance of light snow or flurries to the Middle Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm
through Saturday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...960ish mb low moves out of the
North Pacific to Bristol Bay early Monday setting up a strong
Chinook event over the Alaska Range. Expect much warmer
temperatures in the Alaska Range, and areas north of the Range.
Highs Monday and Tuesday at Denali NP could reach 40, and many
locations around the Middle Tanana Valley could see highs in the
20s to near 30. Temperatures will cool after Tuesday. Winds with
the Chinook may be gusting to 70 mph in some Alaska Range
locations.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.

&&

SDB NOV 17