Brisk Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...performance has been pretty good the last couple weeks,
especially in the short term. For the extended periods they have
been good with the major features. This cycle they are handling
the blocking ridge well as the omega block sets up and the ridge
aloft breaks off from the ridge over the Pacific tonight. Will go
with a blend of the current model runs and the current forecast
database to develop the short term forecast.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Big blocking ridge over the west coast with a
560 dam center that will drift over the lower Yukon Delta by
Sunday morning as the ridge is cut off from the Pacific ridge. A
516 dam low will persist off the British Columbia/Pacific
Northwest Coast. A 499 dam closed low near Kamchatka will move
north and weaken to a shortwave as it moves into Siberia and then
pushes over the top of the ridge Tuesday night. The ridge over the
Yukon Delta will move over Kotzebue Sound late Sunday, then drifts
south to the upper Kuskokwim Valley by Monday evening. The high
center will be over Kodiak Island by late Tuesday at 550 dam. A
major shortwave will move to the western Chukchi Sea and Chukotsk
Peninsula late Tuesday and will impact the west coast starting
Wednesday. At 850 hpa...A warming trend through Tuesday morning as
the ridge ushers in some slightly warmer air. Cooling trend
starting Tuesday with a significant cool off Thursday as the 20
below isotherm moves south and west of the forecast area.

Surface...1040 mb high will persist over mainland Alaska into
early next week. A decaying weather front will move north over
the western Bering Sea. A 1006 mb low in the Beaufort Sea will
move east across Banks Island tonight. A 987 mb low over the
Siberian arctic will move east along 80N, with a front moving
east across the high arctic, to near 130W then dive south into
Canada. A 1005 mb low will develop over Siberia Monday and move
north into the Siberian arctic Monday night, then moves to 400 nm
north of Point Barrow by Tuesday afternoon with a cold front
extending southwest to the northwest coast and Chukchi Sea. The
low will move east and the front will lie from MacKenzie Bay to
Bettles to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning, then
continues to push south and east through Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...For the short term improving
conditions as the winds diminish. Expect snow to continue on and
off without significant accumulation. GOES MVFR Probability
product at 07/19Z shows quite a bit of MVFR conditions, so not
expecting much change in the low ceilings over the area, but
visibility will improve. A bit warmer Sunday, then a slow cooling
trend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Relatively quiet compared to the
last couple weeks. Some spotty areas of rain this evening as the
ridge aloft pulls some warmer air north over St Lawrence Island
and possibly the lower Yukon Delta. Some snow showers over the
Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea tonight and Sunday but nothing
significant. Winds diminishing out west as well so most areas
with have winds less than 15 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...With ridge aloft to the west it will
be pretty quiet. A few clouds moved through this morning, but it
will be mostly clear through Monday. A slow warming trend through
mid week. A chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday, then
clearing with much colder temperatures late in the week. Winds
generally light.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240.

&&

SDB JAN 17