Brisk Wind Advisory 114, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
108 PM AKST Mon Mar 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12z model suite initialized well as far as position of major
features against the 12 surface analysis but the models across the
board initialized the surface low over Banks Island around 5 mb
too high. The 12z model suite also verified about 3 mb too high
against the 18z surface analysis on the same feature. Model spread
is reasonable through the mid range. Large differences emerge both
between model families and between model runs in the long range.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a highly amplified pattern continues with a 512
DM low located over the northern Alaska Panhandle downstream of a
ridge with axis from the Gulf of Anadyr to Unalaska. The ridge
tilts to the east Wednesday with its axis progged to extend from
the Bering Strait to Unalaska. A shortwave rides up and over the
the ridge flattening the ridge Wednesday. The shortwave pushes
north in to the arctic Thursday as the ridge continues to tilt to
the east Thursday. The ridge axis lies from Barrow to Unalaska
Thursday and Friday and will contribute to a significant warming
trend over western Alaska and the western interior Tuesday and
Wednesday but also the central and eastern interior later in the
week. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks will rise from around 24
below celsius this morning to 20 below Tuesday and Wednesday
morning. By Friday morning 850 mb temperatures rise to around 10
below with around 5 below expected over the weekend. A shortwave
over the eastern north slope will continue to dive south and east
and will be the focal point for another round of blowing snow and
low wind chill values over the easter north slope Tuesday evening
and Wednesday.

On the surface it was another cold morning this morning
throughout the interior with Fairbanks dropping to 38 below and
many locations dropping into the 40s below. Another cold morning
on tap Tuesday morning with the cold airmass aloft, calm winds and
clear skies providing optimal radiational cooling. The warm march
sun combined with nearly 11 hours of daylight will help rebound
temperatures to near zero again tomorrow afternoon. A gradual warm
up begins Wednesday over the interior as temperatures aloft warm
as the upper level ridge tilts east over the state through Friday.
Low temperatures over the central interior will warm from the 30s
and 40s below Tuesday morning to around zero over the weekend.
High temperatures over the central interior will warm from around
zero Tuesday to around 30 above over the weekend.

Ongoing Winter Weather Advisories for the eastern north slope
remain on track with low visibilities and low wind chill values.
Conditions are expected to improve later this evening as winds
diminish, however the next shortwave moving over the ridge will
move over the eastern north slope Tuesday night and Wednesday and
will provide another round of light snow and stronger winds that
may flirt with Winter Weather Advisory criteria again Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Tranquil late winter weather expected
elsewhere over northern Alaska through the rest of the week under
building surface high pressure. Expect mostly clear skies and dry
conditions with temperatures rising to above normal levels by the
end of the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

CCC MAR 17