Storm Warning 171, NWS Anchorage, AK

993 
FZAK51 PAFC 040042
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041330-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A strong front over the northern Gulf will move onshore late this
evening. A 961 mb low 70 nm southeast of Chignik will move across 
Kodiak Island tonight and then inland across Southwest Alaska Monday
morning. A 1005 mb low will develop in the southern Gulf Mon evening
then move to 75 nm east of Seward at 1005 mb by Tue afternoon. This
low will then dissipate and move inland by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ119-041330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Near the
coast, SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 20
ft building to 26 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 becoming SE by midnight. Seas 23 ft 
subsiding to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft building to 28 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE by midnight. Seas 22 ft 
subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041330-
Resurrection Bay-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041330-
Prince William Sound-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041330-
Port Valdez-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt shifting to SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041330-
Valdez Narrows-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041330-
Valdez Arm-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming Se and increasing to 35 kt 
during the evening. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041330-
Passage Canal-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041330-
Barren Islands East-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft subsiding to 22 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041330-
Chiniak Bay-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041330-
Marmot Bay-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041330-
Shelikof Strait-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt by noon. Seas 12 FT building
to 20 ft by afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 5 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
in ice free waters 10 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041330-
Kachemak Bay-
342 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 35 kt during the morning. 
Seas 3 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

195 
FZAK51 PAFC 041254
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050200-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 969 mb low 90 nm southwest of Homer will move near Bethel at 981 
mb Mon afternoon. A 1003 mb low 240 nm south of Middleton Island Mon 
night will move near Seward Tue afternoon and then dissipate. A 990 
mb North Pacific low will move to 280 nm south of Kodiak City early 
Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-050200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050200-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050200-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050200-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050200-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050200-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050200-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt near Whittier during the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050200-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft subsiding to 22 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050200-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050200-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050200-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 6 ft after 
midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050200-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 35 kt during the morning. Seas 5 
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Two low pressure systems are impacting the forecast area this
morning. One over the western Bering is feeding colder more
unstable air through the central Bering and Aleutians. The second
much more impactful one for mainland Alaska is still centered well
south of the eastern Aleutians, but its moisture field extends
well northeastward out ahead of it into Southcentral. Downsloping
on strong southeast winds continues to keep Anchorage, the western
Kenai, and portions of the Matanuska Valley dry. However, snow
continues up in the Susitna Valley, where several inches of
accumulation occurred through the day. There the wind direction is
more south to southwest, which is promoting upslope flow causing
greater precipitation rates throughout the valley. Snow has been
reported in Talkeetna nearly continuously for about 24 hours now.
A cold rain continues through much of Prince William Sound this
morning as well with temps just a hair above freezing.

Precipitation-wise, most of Southwest Alaska remains much quieter.
Occasional shallow snow showers have occurred in Bethel, and while
fog was a factor through portions of Bristol Bay earlier tonight,
it has since dissipated as the low well south of the Aleutians
approaches and creates a drier more offshore flow in Southwest
Alaska.

A soon-to-be very familiar upper level pattern is the cause of the
active weather in Southcentral with relatively quiet conditions in
Southwest Alaska. A deep trough centered over the western Bering
is where any semblance of cold air exists now and will remain for
the foreseeable future, meanwhile a building ridge over much of
western North America, including eastern Alaska continues to
strengthen. Thus, in between these upper level features, a warm,
wet weather pattern is setting up.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models begin the next few days in decent agreement regarding a
strengthening low centered well south of the Aleutians, tracking
the center near southern Kodiak Island Sunday evening and then
turning northwestward across the Alaska Range into Southwest
Alaska. The next low (or set of lows) is far less well-resolved
resulting in large disagreements between the models for a couple
reasons. The primary one is it's much weaker than the first low
regardless of the model choice, and is thus much more difficult
for the models to resolve. The second reason is that the low is
moving into Alaska from the south. And while this will be a very
common theme for the foreseeable future, south of Alaska is the
Pacific Ocean, which has much fewer observations (both upper air
and surface), than any land mass. Thus, there is much less data
being supplied to the models from that portion of the world that
isn't calculated by the models themselves, so they have much less
to go on to start resolving the weaker systems that track here
from that direction.

Thus with regards to model choice, due to the wide disagreement
there are between them by day 2 and beyond, an ensemble approach
taking the favorable portions of several different solutions was
used. Most significant forecast changes were on the local scale.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Wind shear
concerns will also persist through much of the day as light
northerly winds continue at the surface with stronger southeast
winds moving over them at 2,000 ft above ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With the major low taking a track to near Kodiak and then
northwestward it is putting Southcentral Alaska the Gulf of
Alaska right in the warm advection section of the storm. This is
causing some precipitation-type challenges in the forecast to
determine when and where snow (or the chance of snow) will mix
with or turn to rain. Numerous locations along the Gulf coast are
already rain but inland areas and higher elevations are more
challenging.

Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley will likely not see any
precipitation today due to the strong cross-barrier flow. However,
by late afternoon or this evening the southeast winds should move
into the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley bringing
temperatures approaching or exceeding 40 degrees so any
precipitation by this afternoon should be rain for those areas.
This will be the first chinook in a while with warm, above
freezing temperatures and gusty winds.

The Susitna Valley will also see a lot of downsloping today
(after snow early this morning). The Western side of the valley
where it starts to ascend the Alaska Range will see significant
snowfall through this system though the more heavily populated
sections will mostly downslope out.

The western Kenai peninsula will be mostly downsloped, but the far
western part with most of the population will be close to the
dividing line between the downslope and rain today. Tomorrow will
be a windy day there as Gale force winds from the south will build
in the Inlet. Cold advection will be associated with the southwest
winds but it looks like all precipitation should remain rain
through tomorrow. This will be something to keep watch as any snow
would limit visibilities in the gusty winds.

The eastern Kenai Peninsula will be at increased avalanche risk
due to the precipitation and strong winds in the system.

In addition to the widespread Gale and Storm warnings in the
marine areas, sea heights today into tonight will be between 20
and 30 feet for a good portion of the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Some lingering showers and patchy fog scattered around the
Bristol Bay area early this morning will dissipate quickly, as a
rapidly intensifying North Pacific low pushes its associated front
across the Alaska and Aleutian ranges this morning. This low will
track just west of Kodiak Island by tonight, aided by a strong
southerly jet advecting copious amounts of moisture and warm air
into southwest. The associated warm front out ahead of this low
will move ashore this morning, spreading precipitation first
across the AKPen, Bristol Bay area, and lower Kuskokwim Valley,
and then northwestward into the Kuskokwim Delta by this afternoon.
Over the Bristol Bay area, precipitation will initially fall as
snow and begin to mix and change over to rain as upper level
temperatures warm aloft and mix down to the surface by this
afternoon from south to north. Any rain over the area will
transition back to snow by Monday morning, as colder air from
the Bering wraps around the back end of the system and filters
over the southwest mainland.

Precipitation over the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley
should mostly fall as snow, before tapering off by Monday
afternoon. Gusty winds will accompany the warm front, leading to
areas of blowing snow reducing visibilities to 1/2 mile or less at
times over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon through tonight. By
Monday evening, the system will push north out of the area
bringing a return of colder and drier conditions through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low will move northward into the Aleutian Range today,
bringing some warmer air and a rain/snow mix over the eastern
Bering and Aleutians. By this evening, colder air will begin to
advect down over the eastern Bering and Aleutians and change the
precipitation predominantly back to snow through Monday afternoon.
The colder air mentioned above, along with a tightening gradient
over the area will also bring some gusty north to northwest winds
to the eastern Bering/Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday
morning through Monday. For the western Bering and Aleutians, a
persistent low over the far western Bering will continue to bring
cold air into the area from the west, as it weakens and tracks
through the Bering through Tuesday morning. This will lead to cold
and blustery conditions as well as widespread snow showers and
gusty winds over the western and Central Aleutians/Bering through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Although the overall pattern in the long term forecast has
remained consistent, the models have been highly variable on
moving individual features through the pattern. Confidence is
moderate that next week will be warmer and windier for
the mainland, and cooler with showers for the Bering Sea. There is
some agreement that there will be a few low pressure systems that
move northward into the Gulf of Alaska, but the exact timing and
strength of these remains a mystery. Regardless, with this
pattern, residents in Southcentral and Southwest Alaska should
expect periods of southeasterly winds, with precipitation on the
windward sides of the mountains. Right now, none of these systems
appear to be particularly strong, although with warming
temperatures, precip type will be a forecast challenge for the
Kenai Peninsula, lower Susitna and Matanuska Valley, Anchorage,
and Bristol Bay. Elsewhere the precipitation should remain all
snow.

Confidence in the Bering Sea forecast isn't any higher in the long
term, although the variability in the forecast will have less of
an impact. The features moving through the Bering Sea during this
time are not expected to be strong, and winds are not even
expected to reach gale strength. However, the differing locations
of each individual low could mean significant differences in wind
direction as we move forward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 119 125 131 132 150 351 352.
Gale Warning: 120 129 130 136 138 139 140 155 160 165 176 177 178
180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...LF