Storm Warning 107, NWS Anchorage, AK

968 
FZAK52 PAFC 072310
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081215-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 80 nm North of Cold Bay moves into mainland Alaska this
evening. The associated front moves across the Alaska Peninsula into
the Gulf tonight. A strong front moves across the western and 
central Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081215-
Bristol Bay-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, NW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081215-
Unalaska Bay-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081215-
Adak to Kiska-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081215-
Kiska to Attu-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft after
midnight.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 12 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. S of Cape Newenham, N wind 40 kt. Seas 7
ft. S of Cape Newenham, seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming
W 20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 30 kt E of Saint Matthew 
Island...SW 45 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft building to 
26 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

616 
FZAK52 PAFC 081156
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090045-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 mb low 380 NM northwest of Attu will strengthen to 975 mb 
as it moves to 370 NM west of Saint Matthew Island late tonight 
and then begin to weaken to 983 mb as it moves into the Gulf of 
Anadyr Mon morning. The associated front will move across the 
northern Bering Sea today and Mon. 

$$

PKZ150-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt early increasing to 45 kt. Seas building to 20
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Water Vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low centered
over the northeastern Gulf with an an amplified ridge along the
west mainland. The jet stream running from west to east over most
of the Bering Sea and then clips the southernmost part of Kodiak
Island and into the southern Gulf of Alaska. Max winds are around
160 KT currently and providing upper level support for gusty winds
in those areas.
Further west, a trough is slowly advancing off of Kamchatka and
moving toward the western Aleutians. At the surface, rain is
diminishing across the southern mainland and the Gulf this
afternoon as subsidence along the ridge mixes down drier air.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through the weekend with the overall
synoptic pattern. The NAM was used to make edits as it kept best
run to run consistency and was the middle ground solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next TAF
package. There is a chance that fog develops along the inlet
overnight, so added some VCFG during Saturday morning to address
this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The synoptic pattern features a low southeast of Cordova with
surface troughing extending north of Valdez. A ridge axis will
enter the Gulf Of Alaska and Prince William Sound Saturday.
Offshore winds and gap winds will continue through Saturday
morning as surface troughing persists in the northern Gulf and
ridging builds briefly inland resulting in a tight pressure
gradient. The next frontal system will approach Kodiak Saturday
afternoon and then track north through the western Gulf Saturday
night and over the Kenai Peninsula Sunday morning. Therefore, we
are anticipating another round of unsettled weather with gusty
winds over portions of Southcentral and rain working its way into
the Kenai, Anchorage and MAT-SU areas on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As one low departs the area, the next one is already developing
quick on its heels. After a tranquil period through Saturday
morning, the low will begin spreading rain through Bristol Bay
Saturday afternoon. It will track northeastward, centered in
Bristol Bay Saturday evening, then reform in the Gulf Saturday
night. Precipitation will mainly be rain with this storm, though
communities east of Bethel and from Dillingham north and west may
see a bit of snow mix in early Sunday morning, but due to the
warm ground and marginally cold atmosphere, no significant
accumulations are expected. Another brief break follows the low
with a front racing into the Kuskokwim Delta by Monday morning.
Rainfall totals will range around 1 inch near Bristol Bay to under
a half inch through the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. For Bethel and
points west, no precipitation is expected. The low will produce
gusty winds everywhere in Southwest Alaska Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Two strong systems will impact the Bering this weekend. The first
will be a compact, but strong, low currently approaching the
Central Aleutians. The center will track near Dutch Harbor
Saturday morning following the northern coast of the Alaska
Peninsula and moving into Bristol Bay late Saturday afternoon.
Strong, gusty winds nearing 50 mph with higher gusts will be
possible behind the center of the low as cold air rushes in behind
it.

The second system will be a strong front associated with a low
near the Kamchatka Peninsula that will move into the western
Aleutians early Saturday night with sustained winds near 40 mph
continuing through Sunday afternoon. The front will progress
northeastward through the western and northern Bering through
Sunday night, moving into mainland Alaska early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid term forecast begins with a front moving over southwest
Alaska from the Bering which will bring more rain to the area
Sunday night. The front will mostly fall apart before making it
over Southcentral Alaska but some showers should make it over the
area by Monday night.

Tuesday into Wednesday is where the models start to struggle with
how to handle a low moving into the western Bering. There is
better agreement than yesterday but they still have not locked in
on the intensity or placement of this low. What they all do
agree on is high pressure remaining south of mainland Alaska
through much of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 125 130-132 160-172 174 178 180.
		 Storm 150 155.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...DK