Small Craft Advisory 995, NWS Anchorage, AK

849 
FZAK52 PAFC 281253
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-290215-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 mb low 390 nm South of Shemya moves along the front to 240
nm South of Attu at 962 mb Fri morning then to 460 nm South of
Attu at 974 mb by Sat morning. A 981 mb low forms 300 nm South of
Atka Thu night and moves to 50 nm Northwest of Atka at 971 mb by 
Sat morning. The front moves across the Aleutians through Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-290215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft except 4 ft N of Chirikof Island.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft except 2 ft N of Chirikof Island.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ155-290215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except E 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ160-290215-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the
ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the
ice edge.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-290215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-290215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-290215-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-290215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-290215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-290215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-290215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-290215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt except diminishing to 20 kt W of Atka after
midnight. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow with rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-290215-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...Bering side, E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after
midnight. Pacific side, SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Bering side, NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the 
afternoon. Pacific side, W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-290215-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft building to 32 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt except diminishing to 25 kt Pacific side
after midnight. Seas 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt except 25 kt Pacific side. Seas 31 ft Bering 
side...23 ft Pacific side. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-290215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-290215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice
edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the
ice edge.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice
edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-290215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice
edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-290215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
824 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels over Alaska this morning are dominated by a weak
but meridional polar jet stream with areas of high pressure
building in across the Gulf of Alaska and the ALCAN as well as a
high amplitude ridge building in across the Central Bering/Aleutians.
A narrowing upper level trough over the western part of the state
is being squeezed between the two upper level ridges and
weakening. The major storm track associated with the sub-tropical
jet stream is located well to the south over the Central Pacific
Ocean, thus the state is currently seeing a period of rather
tranquil weather. High pressure is leading to areas of fog/low
stratus over the Copper River Basin and the Cook Inlet/Knik Arm
area, with dense fog currently observed over west Anchorage
including the airport.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in decent agreement for the short-term forecast,
though it was noted the cold temperatures seen across inland
regions were not being handled well, so temperatures were manually
decreased to be representative. Recent model runs have shown
better agreement regarding the large area of low pressure forming
across the Aleutians/Bering towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Dense fog will persist over the terminal this morning as a
strong subsidence inversion and light surface winds should keep
the surface from mixing out. Current webcam images across the
Anchorage area show fog continuing to spread throughout the bowl,
so it is expected that LIFR conditions will continue through at
least late morning then breaking up some in the afternoon before
possibly reforming tonight. Due to the stagnant conditions under
the upper level ridge and low sun angle this time of year, it is
possible fog will continue through the whole day with only
periodic breaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Thursday evening)

A quiet weather pattern will persist into the weekend with no
significant systems expected to affect the region. An area of
high pressure has moved over Southcentral diverting the major
storm path away from the area. This in turn has lead to light
winds and steep inversions, helping promote fog development this
morning over the Cook Inlet and Copper River Basin.

Heading into tonight and your day on Thursday, the high
over Siberia will retrograde westward, allowing an upper-level
trough across the Bering Sea to move into west central portions of
the state, with a closed mid-level low forming. Southwesterly
flow developing in the mid and upper-levels south of this low
should allow for some increased cloud cover to develop. Should
this occur, fog potential would be mitigated in those locations.
Otherwise, look for the quiet weather conditions to continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The mainland will be predominantly cold and dry for the next
couple days as a weak outflow pattern sets up over the area. Low-
level moisture trapped near the surface is keeping cloud cover
over a good portion of the area. The pressing question in the
short term is how long do these clouds stick around. Usually a
cold-advection outflow pattern will bring in clear conditions
pretty fast, but the lack of a subsident upper level high pressure
may give the low deck a little more staying power. Currently, the
forecast has the Delta clearing out by this evening. Otherwise,
expect some early fog and flurries while the low-stratus sticks
around then clearing conditions save for some high clouds
streaming in from the Bering Sea. Temperatures will be near normal
but much colder than what we've been seeing lately.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A frontal boundary approaches the western/central Aleutians today.
The front will bring gale-force, possible low-end storm-force
winds to the area along with a mix of snow and rain. The front
will stall over the area through the remainder of the week while
another low deepens near the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

We are still on tap for an upper trough to drop into northwest
Alaska resulting in an upper level low forming in the base of the
trough over the western interior Thursday. The upper low is still
expected to take up residence over the Seward Peninsula region
into the weekend before being pushed north as a trough to the
Arctic coast Saturday/Sunday time frame. Meanwhile, an upper high
over far eastern Asia drifts west and an upper low pushes to
south of the Aleutians Friday. This translates to the main
activity with respect to surface lows remaining along or just
south of the Aleutians through Sunday. The upper level low then
pushes to the eastern Bering Sea in the vicinity of the Pribilof
Islands Monday. This drags the surface low north to the Pribilofs
as well. However, overall model agreement with respect to the
surface lows in particular is poor heading into the weekend and
doesn't fair much better moving into Monday and Tuesday.
Considering potential solutions of a large low centered in the
eastern Bering to a strong large low south of Kodiak Island, and
the difference being a strong southerly push versus east to
northeast offshore flow off the southern mainland, we are taking
an approach of trending with the ensemble mean solutions and not
making any drastic changes beyond day 4 (Saturday).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale warning 173 174 175 176 178 411 413. Storm warning
177. Heavy freezing spray warning 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD/SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...SA