Small Craft Advisory 957, NWS Anchorage, AK

309 
FZAK52 PAFC 140051
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141415-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Bering moves inland
tonight. A front in the western Bering moves over the central
Bering Thu afternoon and reaches Southwest Alaska Fri morning. A
970 mb low 70 nm north of Adak Thu afternoon moves 200 nm
northeast of Adak at 967 mb Thu night and then moves 240 nm northwest
of Dutch Harbor Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-141415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141415-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141415-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141415-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms after midnight from Adak west.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms after 
midnight from Adak west.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141415-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
bering side...16 ft Pacific side. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side... 18 ft Pacific 
side.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141415-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray north of
Cape Newenham.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 25 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray N of 60 N.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

012 
FZAK52 PAFC 141303
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150200-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 165 nm southwest of Shemya with an associated front 
deepens to 966 mb 195 nm north of Adak by Fri morning and then moves
to 150 nm west of Dutch Harbor at 982 mb by Sat morning. A 967 mb 
low 55 nm north of Cold Bay Fri morning moves inland over Southwest 
Alaska by Fri night.

$$

PKZ150-150200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150200-
Bristol Bay-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150200-
Unalaska Bay-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain with snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150200-
Adak to Kiska-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft 
Bering side...16 ft Pacific side. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...18 ft Pacific side.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft Bering side...22 ft Pacific side.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150200-
Kiska to Attu-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 55 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The train of lows continues with deep southerly flow from the
eastern Pacific up to the southern mainland of Alaska. A weak
low is lifting northward across Southwest Alaska today, with a
secondary low nearly stationary south of Cold Bay. Temperatures
have warmed enough across Southwest Alaska to produce mainly rain.
Showers persists along the Gulf coast behind a front which moved
inland this morning. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions continue
across Southcentral.

Satellite imagery shows signs of a frontal wave several hundred
miles south of Kodiak Island. With weak upper level support and
low level baroclinicity expect the process of cyclogenesis to be
slow.

Broad northerly flow and cold advection across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians continues to produce snow showers. However, a pattern
change is in store with a strong jet over the northwest Pacific
beginning to drive eastward south of the Aleutian chain. A deep
mature low north of the jet is slowly making its way toward the
western Aleutians.

Ultimately, the eastward progression of this low/trough will
cause the high amplitude trough over the north central Pacific
to lift northward and lead to a pattern change across the entire
Alaska region as we head through the remainder of the week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have finally converged on a similar solution with the
developing low over the northeast Pacific today and its track to
Southwest Alaska. There are still some minor differences in
intensity and track of the front across the Gulf, but forecast
confidence has greatly increased. However, confidence quickly
falls behind this system, with yet another frontal wave or low
tracking northward across the eastern Gulf as the upper trough
begins to lift northward on Wednesday. For now prefer the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM idea of a weak fast moving low and will disregard
the very different Canadian solutions which depict a much slower
and deeper low. The end result of this feature will be to prolong
and enhance precipitation in eastern Prince William Sound and the
Copper River Basin.

Model differences also develop as trough moves to the Bering Sea
and Aleutians the next couple days, with favorable conditions
for development of multiple surface lows rotating around a broad
upper center. Bottom line, forecast confidence drops off
considerably as we head through Wednesday and beyond. As far as
the plan for the forecast, will focus on depicting key aspects
of the pattern change and not worry too much about location of
individual features at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The big question early on is whether Turnagain winds will
bend into the airport this afternoon/evening on a consistent basis
or just an occasional gust. Pressure gradients look very marginal.
Have stuck with a bit of wind in the forecast, but it may stay
just to the south over Fire Island. Otherwise, with strong
downslope flow VFR conditions will dominate through the TAF
period. With a marginally deeper and faster moving low headed
inland across Southwest Alaska tomorrow and a much stronger front
crossing Southeast winds will definitely move into the airport
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The pattern over Southcentral Alaska continues with the next front
moving north through the southern Gulf. It will make it to the
north Gulf coast early Wednesday morning bringing more precip to
the coast. Lower elevations look to see mostly rain from the
front.

Some showers will sneak past the coastal ranges bringing rain and
snow to inland locations, with the further inland areas seeing
more snow than rain. Winds will also accompany the front with the
strongest winds through east-west oriented gaps. After the front
pushes inland, flow will remain out of the south which will result
in continued showers along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Broad southerly flow over the region continues to transport
moisture and predominantly rain showers (some snow showers along
the Kuskokwim Delta coast) over parts of Southwest this
afternoon. A strengthening shortwave moving north from the Pacific
will plow into Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight
and tomorrow, bringing rain with a mix of wet snow to those
regions. This system exits tomorrow evening and will be a series
of very weak and subtle shortwaves which will keep snow chances
over the region through Thursday as colder air slowly infiltrates
eastward behind each successive shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low over Bristol Bay will lift north tonight, keeping an
enhanced northerly pressure gradient over the central Bering
Sea/Eastern Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands. The gradient will
begin to weaken tomorrow with a gale force front entering the far
western Bering Sea this evening and moving east slowly through
Thursday. The air mass should be cold enough to mainly support
snow since it will quickly occlude tonight, although some rain
will mix in at times as the front tracks east.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The weather pattern will remain active through day 7 (Tuesday).
We expect a continuation of the train of lows moving into the Gulf
of Alaska and Bering Sea. The models continue to struggle with
this pattern and coming into agreement on the location and
intensity of these storms for the entire extended forecast period.

Beginning Thursday, a strong low will move to the western Alaska
Peninsula area, though where exactly is still uncertain. It will
then push a front into the Gulf of Alaska. The ensemble mean
looks to be the best path forward at this point. By Friday the
deterministic operational model runs differ significantly with
respect to where the low center will be. This storm should be in
the Eastern Bering Sea by Friday, but here again, the models
diverge with the placement of the low center. This has a
significant impact on the sensible weather over the southern
mainland and the Bering Sea/Aleutians. As we progress through the
weekend the models do come into agreement bringing the strong
large low to the Prince William Sound region by Sunday thus
finally breaking down the blocking ridge over the west coast of
North America. The big take away from this will be a trend to
cooler temperatures as we near the weekend and into early next
week. Beyond Sunday the models once again diverge and have
significantly different solutions Monday and Tuesday, thus overall
confidence in the extended forecast is on the low side. The
overall approach to the extended forecast will be to nudge and
trend toward the ensemble solution, but in general we will not be
making any big changes to the forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 125 130 131 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...SA