Small Craft Advisory 952, NWS Anchorage, AK

828 
FZAK52 PAFC 130022
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131330-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 mb low 400 nm southeast of Chignik will move inland and 
dissipate over Bristol Bay by Wed morning. A front over the western 
Aleutians will move over the central Aleutians Thu night.

$$

PKZ150-131330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131330-
Bristol Bay-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft
subsiding.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131330-
Unalaska Bay-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131330-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131330-
Adak to Kiska-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131330-
Kiska to Attu-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft except 4 ft near the ice edge.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

454 
FZAK52 PAFC 131248
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140200-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Bering weakens through
tonight. A front in the western Bering will move east and move 
inland over Southwest Alaska through Fri morning. A 975 mb low 290 
nm west of Shemya Thu morning will move to 150 nm north of Dutch 
Harbor at 965 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-140200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140200-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon W of
Port Moller. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140200-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140200-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon Pacific
side. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140200-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-140200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 25 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The southern mainland remains entrenched in a deep southerly flow
pattern emanating from the subtropical Pacific between a stout,
persistent ridge over western North America and a broad longwave
trough extending from the Russian Arctic through the Bering Sea
and well into the North Pacific. The next in the parade of
embedded systems tracking northward through the Gulf is bearing
down on the Gulf coast this morning as a front moves through the
northern Gulf and the parent 978 mb low nears the Alaska
Peninsula. Scattered rain showers continue along the coast and
over Southwest AK ahead of these features, with interior portions
of Southcentral staying mostly dry in a relative lull between
systems. The western half of the Bering remains cold enough for
snow in northerly flow on the back side of the trough, with
widespread snow showers and gusty north winds impacting the
Pribilof Islands and the central part of the Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement as the western CONUS
ridge holds strong through mid to late week, but they continue
to differ on some of the details of the various disturbances
moving north towards the mainland. There is good agreement on the
current system approaching the Akpen, but solutions then diverge
rather quickly with the next wave coming up Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Utilized a NAM/GFS blend for the morning package to
depict a middle ground approach for these features until small
scale details are better resolved. Generally speaking, the active,
warm, and wet pattern will continue through the short term, with
the bulk of the precipitation focused along the coast and inland
locations remaining mostly downsloped. Guidance is then hinting at
the ridge finally breaking down later in the week, which is
covered in greater detail in the Long Term portion of the
discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low level wind shear will redevelop this morning as a front
pushes inland along the Gulf coast and winds remain light and
northerly at the surface. Southeast winds will move into the
terminal in the afternoon off of Turnagain Arm as the down inlet
pressure gradient weakens. Winds will then shift back to the north
around 08z Wednesday as the down inlet gradient is reestablished,
with another period of wind shear through Wednesday morning.
Persistent downslope flow is expected to keep the terminal at VFR
conditions through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over northwest Canada will remain in place
through Wednesday night, with a trough over the eastern Bering
Sea. This will bring continued southerly flow aloft to the area,
and will keep temperatures quite warm. A weather front along the
north Gulf coast will move inland today. Most of the precipitation
with this system will fall along and near near the coast, and
mostly as rain for the lower elevations. The next system will push
into the Gulf later today, and reach the coast tonight. This
system will have a strong pressure gradient, and fairly strong
winds will are expected across the Gulf, as well as through
Turnagain Arm. This system will move inland Wednesday night, with
winds and precipitation diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday and
Wednesday)...
A strong area of low pressure is making its way northward towards
the Alaska Peninsula this morning. Ahead of the low, gusty
southeast winds are causing most of the precipitation to dry out
as it downslopes off the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges, keeping areas
immediately west of those ranges largely dry. Further west, the
opposite upsloping is locally enhancing the precipitation on the
east side of the Kuskokwim Mountains, with snow showers aided by
upper level forcing continuing past the mountains into the
Kuskokwim Delta area, primarily from Bethel westward. The low will
cross the Alaska Peninsula into western Bristol Bay later this
morning, then continue northward, tracking along the coast. That
will continue the southeast winds through Bristol Bay and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley, with minimal precipitation expected today
there. However, from Dillingham north and west, upsloping will
enhance the precipitation throughout the day.

As the first low tracks into the Bering Strait tonight,
precipitation will continue along the Kuskokwim Mountains and
redevelop in parts of the Bristol Bay and Lower Kuskokwim Valley
in association with the next low, which by Wednesday morning will
be centered between Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. It
will bring another slug of warm air, so most populated lower-
elevation areas will see mainly rain as temperatures peak in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. The low will continue through interior
Southwest Alaska during the day Wednesday, which will turn the
flow largely southwesterly across the region, keeping moisture
flowing into the area from the Bering. Meanwhile atmospheric
temperatures will gradually cool behind the low, beginning a
turnover of the lingering precipitation back over to snow from
west to east Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures continue
to cool back towards seasonal normals going into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low approaching the Alaska Peninsula moves up along the
coast of mainland Alaska today, the persistent northerly winds and
snow showers that have been ongoing across the central Bering
will slowly diminish and shift eastward going into tonight. The
next low will track a good 200 miles further east across interior
Southwest Alaska today, bringing those northerly winds and much
cooler mid-atmospheric air into the coast by Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile a small area of high pressure builds eastward as well
through the central Bering and Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday
afternoon, temporarily diminishing the precipitation in the area,
but doing relatively little to thin out the clouds. The weak high
will remain over the eastern Bering Wednesday night.

Across the western Bering, a strong front bringing warmer air into
the area will move into the western Aleutians late this afternoon
and this evening, bringing widespread snow showers to the area
before the warmer air builds in and causes the precipitation to at
least mix with rain. A series of triple-point lows developing
along the front will help advance the warmer air and associated
precipitation further east with time into the central Bering and
Aleutians on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Unsettled weather will
continue throughout the western half of the Bering through
Wednesday night and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active pattern remains through the long range forecast as
multiple low pressure systems track across the southern mainland
from the Gulf and Bering. Beginning Wednesday night, the
persistent ridge pattern remains amplified over the Southeast with
a new low moving east across the Southern Bering along a zonal
jet that sets up south of the Aleutians by mid week. This system
is projected to break down the ridge anchored over the Southeast
heading into the weekend. However, there is high uncertainty on
how quickly the ridge breaks down as models continue to diverge in
the low track as it moves to the eastern Bering on Friday.

The storm system rides north of the jet streak and therefore is
not on a fast track. Current model trends are now showing the
streak running ahead of this system, amplifying a new ridge along
the southeast during the weekend. This projection shunts eastward
progress of this low with all models struggling with the strong
shortwaves rotating around the periphery of its center. The ECMWF
and its ensembles had best run to run consistency and was heavily
weighted in the WPC blends which used a blended approach of all
operational models and ensembles.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 125 130>132 150 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...KH/KVP