Small Craft Advisory 891, NWS Anchorage, AK

577 
FZAK51 PAFC 230028
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231300-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Broad low pressure exits the Southeastern Gulf by Thu morning. A
front extends across the Northern Gulf through Fri afternoon. A
985 mb low forms 40 nm East of Kodiak City Thu morning and moves 
to 300 nm Southwest of Sitka at 978 mb for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-231300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near the Hitchenbrook
entrance this evening. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out the Copper River Delta.
Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt in
the evening. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late morning. Seas building to
8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231300-
Resurrection Bay-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
30 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. 
Freezing spray in the evening.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231300-
Prince William Sound-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to 
35 kt in the evening W of Seal Island. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231300-
Port Valdez-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231300-
Valdez Narrows-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231300-
Valdez Arm-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231300-
Passage Canal-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in
the evening.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231300-
Barren Islands East-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Snow 
and rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building 
to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231300-
Chiniak Bay-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231300-
Marmot Bay-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231300-
Shelikof Strait-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-231300-
Kachemak Bay-
328 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Early this afternoon a weak front stretches along a line from
just south of Talkeetna to the southern tip of the western Kenai.
The upper trough driving this feature is swinging eastward from a
parent low over the Chukchi Sea. An upper shortwave ridge is to
the east of the trough with nearly zonal flow to its west over the
Bering. The next impactful low to monitor is quickly approaching
the western Aleutians from the North Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement on the synoptic pattern
through the short range forecast into early Thursday evening. Good
model consistency is noted along the last several runs, therefore
only minor updates were needed for the afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF package,
however there is a chance for brief MVFR to develop along a weak
front projected to move across the Anchorage Bowl this evening.
Winds will generally be a light northerly flow through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A weak shortwave trough will continue pushing east across
Southcentral this evening bringing a quick shot of snow to most
locations on the west side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains,
though no more than an inch of accumulation is expected. The
trough weakened considerably as it came over the Alaska Range
today and will fall apart even more as it moves over higher
terrain to the east, meaning areas along the Prince William Sound
and Gulf Coast should see little if any snow from this system.
High pressure will build in again behind the departing trough
tonight and tomorrow bringing another shot of cold air advection
and strengthening northerly gap winds. The orientation of the
upper level flow and pressure gradient will favor areas along the
coast including Valdez/Thompson Pass, Whittier, and Seward, where
winds could gust as high as 35-50 mph peaking tomorrow afternoon.

The flow will rapidly shift tomorrow evening as another low over
the western part of the state moves in. A front extending from the Eastern
Bering across the AKPEN will sweep NE over Kodiak and the
Southern Kenai bringing another round of rain and snow to those
areas. High pressure over NW Canada will block the low from moving
further north and push the center to the south and east over the
Gulf, keeping the area mostly dry through the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The forecast period commences with a polar low over the Chukchi
Sea with the remnants of the frontal boundary moving into western
Alaska. In the wake of the frontal passage, ridging will build
into southwest Alaska tonight resulting in a lull between
cyclones. Wednesday a mature low will have emerged into the
central Bering and the models have converged on a solution that
bring this storm to southwest Alaska late this forecast period.
Early Thursday the surface low will begin to dive southeastward
from Nunivak Island to Bristol Bay. Widespread precipitation and
coastal impacts anticipated with this storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The progressive pattern for the Bering and Aleutians continues.
A low that is currently south of Attu Island is progged to
rapidly deepen and push north and east. This storm is projected to
evolve into a significant storm that will harness a widespread
area of cold air advection. The attendant cold front will migrate
eastward impacting the Aleutian Chain and the Central Bering. The
operational runs of the GFS and the NAM have the surface low
deepening more than 20 mb in 24 hrs. Anticipate strong winds,
rough seas and wintry precipitation. Early Thursday, the surface
low will begin to dive southeastward from Nunivak Island to
Bristol Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast heading into the weekend will see the exit of a
strong low into the Gulf of Alaska and eventually the PAC NW of
the lower 48. Friday, winds along the AKPEN should begin to abate
and the concerns for gusts reaching warning level will wane. This
weekend will see a transient Bering Sea ridge build north of the
central Aleutian chain and slowly slide to the east. Low pressure
lifting from the western Pacific will drag a front across the
Bering and merge with a different area of low pressure Sunday.
This will reintroduce precipitation across much of the southwest.
However, with strong southerly wind transporting warmth aloft,
problems with precipitation type arise during this timeframe. The
Friday and through the weekend forecast for southcentral remains
pretty basic. Offshore flow will dominate the entire period and
skies should become relatively cloud free. Temperatures will
slowly drop this weekend with the clearing skies and limited wind
overnight. Chances for snow are bleak through at least Monday.
Guidance takes a turn come next week and becomes challenging. The
long range forecast trended to more of an ensemble weighting as
the standard suite of deterministic models provided a wide range
of forecast possibilities.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...CFW and WSW 155 and 161, NPW 181 and 195.
MARINE...Storms 165 170 179 180 181 185 411-414. Gales 120 130-132
138 150 155 160 172-178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...SS