Small Craft Advisory 868, NWS Anchorage, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFC 131152
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140100-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea moves 
to the Alaska Peninsula by Tue night.


$$

PKZ150-140100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140100-
Bristol Bay-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140100-
Unalaska Bay-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140100-
Adak to Kiska-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140100-
Kiska to Attu-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt late afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-140100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
252 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

343 
FZAK52 PAFC 140045
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141400-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front currently located across the western Aleutians this
afternoon will continue to move eastward, reaching the Kuskokwim 
Delta and Alaska Peninsula by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ150-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141400-
Bristol Bay-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141400-
Unalaska Bay-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141400-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141400-
Adak to Kiska-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141400-
Kiska to Attu-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

510 
FZAK52 PAFC 141241
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the Alaska Peninsula moves east and inland Tue night.
A second front approaches the western Aleutians Tue night and 
reaches the eastern Aleutians Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt late morning. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 35 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

979 
FZAK52 PAFC 150102
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151445-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the Alaska Peninsula will move east and inland tonight 
through Wed. A trough in the northern Bering will dig southeast 
across the eastern Bering Wed night through Thu. A front will 
approach and stall over the western Aleutians Wed evening through 
Thu.

$$

PKZ150-151445-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151445-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind
10 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151445-
Bristol Bay-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft 
after midnight.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151445-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151445-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151445-
Unalaska Bay-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151445-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151445-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151445-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151445-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151445-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151445-
Adak to Kiska-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151445-
Kiska to Attu-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151445-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151445-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151445-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151445-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 35 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The next shortwave in the flow is approaching Southern Alaska from
the interior this morning. It will help reestablish upper level
troughing across the eastern portion of the state. Meanwhile, the
sprawling ridge that has been persistent across the Bering for
a couple weeks now remains centered south of Dutch Harbor. East
of the high pressure center, northwest flow off the Bering into
the Alaska Peninsula is maintaining the low stratus and fog around
that area. Over the central and western Bering, broad southerly
flow is transporting abundant moisture into the area from a broad
cyclone over the central Pacific. With each wave a little of that
moisture is tapped and transported into Southwest Alaska.

Across Southcentral, the leading edge of the shortwave and an
upper level jet streak is rapidly making its way southeastward
into the area. The wave will effectively push the cold air that
has been building up in the Copper River Basin out through the
passes and out to the Gulf. The winds through all of the passes
that open into the Gulf remain gusty this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement through the short-term
due in part to the persistent pattern over Alaska. Most of the
synoptic and smaller-scale features are well handled, leading to
higher confidence in the forecast. Uncertainty arises with how
those synoptic and mesoscale features affect portions of the area
on a local scale. Namely, as the next wave pushes across
Southcentral, how gusty the passes will get. A lot of the answer
to that question is determined by the expectation of mountain wave
development. Mountain waves are usually of such small scale that
not even the high resolution models have a good handle on them.
Also, there are some subtle model differences Monday evening as to
whether a easterly wave moves over Thompson Pass and Valdez.
If it happens, that would cause a second peak in the winds to
occur as the wave nicely aligns with the northeast to southwest
orientation of the Pass. Elsewhere, the usual fog and low stratus
concerns for coastal areas of Southwest Alaska and the Bering
remain as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Monday morning. A brief
period of gusty winds is possible late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level wave moving through the area will be dry and not
bring in any precipitation except for possibly some light snow
along the ALaska Range.

Winds once again are the main issue with the focus being on the
Valdez area where a high wind watch is in effect. The timing of
this watch has been adjusted from late Sunday afternoon and
evening to Monday morning through late Tuesday afternoon. While
there is a chance a gust to 75 mph could occur this evening in
Valdez or Thompson Pass, the real event looks to be Monday and
Tuesday with frequent gusts to 80 mph possible. That is the reason
the timing was changed for this event. This event reaching
warning level winds (75 mph) is also directly tied to cold air
moving out of the Copper River Basin in addition to a tight
pressure gradient. That is the factor that is most challenging.
Without a good push of cold air (which is in place in the Copper
River Basin) winds will not reach warning levels so this is
something to keep watching as this event develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An Arctic front pushes across the Kuskokwim just east of Bethel to
the western Alaska Range through this afternoon. Several inches of
snow will accumulate across the Kuskokwim Valley with the highest
amounts expected across higher elevations. Snow should diminish
this evening, however a strong upper level disturbance from the
Arctic low may prolong this snow event along the Alaska Range.
Gusty northerly flow increases this evening along the Aleutian and
Alaska Ranges as forcing from the upper wave surges a cold dense
air mass through the southern mainland. This should mitigate fog
development across most of the southwest, however patchy fog along
the coastal areas is likely to develop as a ridge shifts east
across the Bering.

Monday night into Tuesday the flow slackens behind the front and
the Bering ridge shifts across Bristol Bay. This pattern keeps dry
conditions across the region through Tuesday afternoon. A front
tracking across the Bering moves to the Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday
night spreading precipitation slowly eastward into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A North Pacific low sends a front across the western half of the
Aleutian Chain this morning with a northeastward track through
this afternoon. The front progresses to the Pribilof Islands and
eastern Aleutians late afternoon or early evening then stalls as
the ridge over the eastern waters blocks further movement. A
reinforcing wave propagates eastward from a low over the
Kamchatka Peninsula Sunday night bringing another surge of rain
into Monday with gusty gales across the central Aleutians. This
system effectively breaks the ridge down across the eastern waters
on Tuesday bringing rain to the west coast and Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Little overall change is expected in the forecast early next week
as widespread offshore flow continues to bring outflow winds to
much of the Gulf Coast with clear and cold conditions to the South
Mainland. There is however good agreement that this pattern will
begin to break down Tue-Wed, as a North Pacific low strong enough
to begin weakening the persistent ridging over the Bering. This
low will push through the Bering through Wednesday, which should
help both scour out the widespread fog over the Bering/Southwest
Mainland as well as begin to diminish the outflow winds along the
North Gulf Coast. This pattern shift should also allow for a
series of deeper lows to move through the Bering and into the Gulf
beginning late next week into next weekend, leading to a much more
active and progressive weather pattern than last week. There is
however a large spread in the model guidance in both the track and
intensity of these lows, largely because of differences in how
much cold air will be available in the mainland, so the details in
the long term forecast are very broad brushed for now.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch: 131.
MARINE...Gales: 120 126 127 128 130 131 132 150 175 176 177 185
351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DEK