Small Craft Advisory 86, NWS Anchorage, AK

069 
FZAK51 PAFC 280052
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281345-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN INLAND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER
SATURDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-281345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-281345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-281345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-281345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-281345-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-281345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-281345-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-281345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-281345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-281345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-281345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-281345-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-281345-
MARMOT BAY-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-281345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-281345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-281345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-281345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A powerful shortwave trough is rapidly moving northwest into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. The associated storm
force warm front has moved inland along the North Gulf Coast.
Southeast wind gusts to near 60 knots were reported across Prince
William Sound into Portage Valley and across higher elevations of
Turnagain Pass. Currently, southeast winds have moved across large
swaths of Southcentral including the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley. This "chinook" wind has brought temperatures up into the
low to mid 40s, the warmest temps in nearly two months. Across the
Bering Sea, there is an arctic trough centered over the Western
and Central Bering Sea with strong gale force northwest winds
associated with it. Farther south, a powerful 195 knot Pacific
jet stream is continuing to spin up strong lows along the left
exit region of the jet. The latest in a series of these lows is
developing and moving into the southeast Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As usual, the numerical models are in good agreement with the
large scale synoptic pattern, but they are not in good agreement
at all with a series of lows expected to move toward the northeast
part of the Gulf of Alaska as well as the merging of these lows
with an arctic trough over the Bering Sea. These interactions are
important and will impact how much moisture retrogrades west and
interacts favorably with the arctic trough as it swings east this
weekend. This makes the precipitation forecast for inland
locations across all of southern Alaska lower than average,
including for the Anchorage Bowl. For this forecast, a blend of
all the models was favored to take into account the amount of
discrepancy.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...East southeast winds across the airport will diminish this
evening along with any low level wind shear. More low level wind
shear will be possible near the terminal Friday evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with on rain and
snow showers in the vicinity after midnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
Broad southeasterly flow will continue to keep things warm and
showery through the overnight hours. A broad trough centered over
the Bering will leave the area vulnerable to various shortwaves
riding up from the North Pacific. The flow generally favors
precipitation along the coast with drier conditions on the leeward
side of the mountains. But as we saw this morning in parts of the
Matanuska Borough and Eagle River, some precipitation may be able
to make it over the mountains. The strongest winds have pushed
through most of the area, but things will remain gusty through the
evening hours, especially in favored terrain. The biggest concern
is that later tonight our atmosphere stabilizes enough to allow
radiational cooling. This should lead to many temperatures
dropping below freezing on Fri morning resulting in icy surfaces.
A special weather statement has been issued to address this.

On Friday colder air will start to filter in over the Kenai
Peninsula while a stronger low moves over the Eastern Gulf. The
colder air will lead to increased instability and could make for
some heavy snow showers tracking up the Cook Inlet from Kachemak
Bay. By Fri night, a shortwave within the broad trough will help
to focus these showers and push them through the Anchorage Area.
This should lead to a few inches of fresh snow by Sat morning.
Over the Eastern Gulf, the Fri low tracks quickly northward
bringing some rain to Cordova and light snow to the eastern Copper
River Basin. Another very similar low will follow nearly the same
track on Sat. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this second
system, but if it holds its course, it would bring more rain to
the eastern Gulf and more snow to the Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main features continue to be the low off the coast of the
Kuskokwim Delta and the rotation of a low south of the Alaska
Peninsula into southwest Alaska. The low will remain nearly
stationary off the Kuskokwim Delta coast through Saturday morning
before drifting north Saturday afternoon. The low south of the
Alaska Peninsula moves into the Bristol Bay region tonight as the
remnants of a low in the Barren Island move across the Iliamna area.
Therefore higher probability of precipitation and precipitation
amounts were brought into the forecast for the southwest mainland
through tonight. Friday morning will see the flow predominantly
out of the southwest and west resulting in a change over to more
showery precipitation and colder air advecting into the southwest
mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
To the west of the low and trough are more convective conditions
accompanied with gusty west and northwest wind. Persistent snow
showers across the Pribilof Islands along with the wind is
resulting in reduced visibility in the snow and blowing snow. Snow
showers and blowing snow are prevalent across the length of the
Aleutian Islands in the west to northwest flow. A low over the
Kurile Islands will rapidly move east along the Aleutians as it
dissipates to a trough through Saturday morning.

The next system to cause an impact is the low and associated gale
force front that will move into the western Aleutians by Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Saturday night into Sunday the upper low center over the eastern
Bering lifts north and swings a strong shortwave east from the
western Alaska Range and Gulf of Alaska. This system will bring
light widespread snow across most of the southern mainland and
Gulf Saturday night. A surface ridge transverses the region
briefly on Sunday bringing a break in precipitation across the
gulf and Southcentral.

To the West...an active weather pattern amidst the broad longwave
trough over the Bering keeps ongoing precipitation across the
Aleutians and Southwest. A significant storm system brings a warm
front into the western and Central Aleutians Saturday night
through Sunday. Max southeasterly gales winds are expected to
accompany the front along with snow and a brief period of rain as
warm air intrudes into the southern Bering. This front progresses
to the Pribilof Islands, eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula on
Sunday.

The next system to monitor for gusty winds and snow across all of
the southern mainland and surrounding waters moves into the
western Aleutians Sunday and tracks quickly eastward. This stacked
low pressure system will spread snow across the Bering and
Aleutians on Sunday and then into the Southwest late day. This
system may edge into the western Gulf and Southcentral by Sunday
night however models have not come into agreement with the surface
low track and frontal progression.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 170 179 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...KH