Small Craft Advisory 849, NWS Anchorage, AK

135 
FZAK51 PAFC 081244
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090145-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure pushes into the Southern Gulf through Thu morning. A 
1009 mb low forms 40 nm Southwest of Kenai Thu and moves to 65 nm 
Southeast of Middleton Island at 1000 mb by Fri morning. The 
associated front moves across the Gulf through Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ119-090145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090145-
Resurrection Bay-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090145-
Prince William Sound-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090145-
Port Valdez-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090145-
Valdez Narrows-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090145-
Valdez Arm-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090145-
Passage Canal-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090145-
Barren Islands East-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090145-
Chiniak Bay-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090145-
Marmot Bay-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090145-
Shelikof Strait-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090145-
Kachemak Bay-
344 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

941 
FZAK51 PAFC 090003
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091315-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure pushes into the Southern Gulf through Thu afternoon.
A 1004 mb low forms 40 nm south of Seward Thu afternoon and moves
to 210 nm southwest of Middleton Island at 1000 mb by Fri
afternoon with an associated front moving across the Gulf.

$$

PKZ119-091315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091315-
Resurrection Bay-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091315-
Prince William Sound-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091315-
Port Valdez-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091315-
Valdez Narrows-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091315-
Valdez Arm-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091315-
Passage Canal-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 40 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091315-
Barren Islands East-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091315-
Chiniak Bay-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091315-
Marmot Bay-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091315-
Shelikof Strait-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-091315-
Kachemak Bay-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude upper level ridge is centered across the western
half of the state and extends north all the way up into the
Beaufort Sea. An upper level jet max is diving south through
Southcentral and is moving off to the east as the ridge axis moves
over central Alaska. This is acting to loosen the pressure
gradient across the region which is leading to weakening northerly
gap winds along the Gulf Coast and the Matanuska Valley. Skies
underneath the ridge are mostly cloud free leading to rapidly
falling temperatures, especially across the Copper River Basin,
where temps have dropped below zero.

Further west, a long wave trough over the Bering is pushing east
towards the coast, with the associated frontal boundary bringing a
large swath of cloud cover over Western Alaska. The Bethel radar
is showing an area of precipitation, mostly rain, beginning to
move ashore along the west coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are again in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern through the short term. Noteworthy differences begin to
show by Wednesday night as an upper level shortwave moves across
the west coast. The NAM is a bit weaker than the GFS and EC
models, showing a less pronounced front, so the forecast hedged
more towards the stronger solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the day. There is a
chance of fog developing over the Upper Cook Inlet and Knik Arm
tonight as flow weakens with the ridge axis moving overhead. Left
in vicinity fog for now as timing and extent are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will build overhead today, leading to a gradual
slackening of the pressure gradient and allowing winds to die
down most places. With colder air pooled in the Copper River
Basin, winds will linger a little longer in parts of the
Matanuska Valley, Valdez to Thompson Pass area, and out of the
Copper River Delta.

Dry and cool weather will be the story through Wednesday night
as high pressure aloft is replaced by deep and fairly strong
westerly flow, which is often a dry pattern for Southcentral.
Temperature inversions will quickly steepen tonight as the surface
radiates out, so expect to see development of some fog,
particularly in the favored areas of northern Cook Inlet and the
Copper River Basin. A few passing clouds associated with a very
weak upper short-wave should keep it localized. Weak cold air
advection behind this short-wave will kick up winds once again
along the coast, though not as strong as the event which just
occurred.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front stretched along the Kuskokwim coast to the Alaska
Peninsula slowly moves east through the afternoon and dissipates
this evening as it reaches the Aleutian and western Alaska Ranges.
A mix of snow and rain is expected as the boundary moves along the
Kuskokwim Delta and western capes of Bristol Bay with rain across
the Alaska Peninsula. Snow will be light as the upper wave quickly
shears apart as it shoves into the ridge over the mainland. Patchy
fog may briefly develop during the morning and overnight hours as
the weak frontal boundaries slowly diminish. Another fast
propagating wave follows a similar path moving to the west coast
later tonight. A better chance for widespread precipitation in the
near term is Wednesday night into Thursday as the subtropical jet
amplifies a new ridge pattern across the Bering which kicks the
mid level low over Kamchatka into motion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A nearly zonal pattern sets up across the Bering through
Wednesday. This pattern advects a slightly cooler pattern across
the northern half of the Bering along westerly flow. A parent low
anchored over Kamchatka sends a few short waves from west to east
across the Bering bringing periods of isolated to scattered
showers through mid week. An active pattern shift begins Wednesday
night as the subtropical jet quickly amplifies over the western
waters. A warmer air mass will begin to modify the temperatures
across the western Bering and Aleutians on Thursday with drier
conditions and lighter winds along the center of the ridge which
nears the central Aleutians on Thursday. Winds are expected to
increase across the outer perimeter of the ridge on Thursday night
with the Kamchatka and next Pacific low actively trying to break
the ridge down.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The numerical models are in excellent agreement for the long term
portion of the forecast, therefore confidence is higher than
normal. The basic pattern is anchored by the long wave ridge along
about 170 degrees west longitude, and a long wave trough over
eastern Alaska into the Yukon territory. Several short wave
troughs top the ridge and drop northwest to southeast across the
state during the forecast period. The WPC guidance uses an equal
blend of the GFS and ECMWF, incorporating considerable amounts of
the deterministic solutions along with the ensemble means.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 185 352 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...BL