Small Craft Advisory 837, NWS Anchorage, AK

705 
FZAK51 PAFC 041156
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050100-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1017 mb North Pacific low moves to 210 nm southeast of Sand
Point this evening then to 240 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 
1012 mb by Sun morning. This low then intensifies and moves to 
300 nm south of Middleton Island at 980 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-050100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming Variable 10 kt. 
Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta in the morning. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt by late morning. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050100-
Resurrection Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt early...becoming 
Variable less than 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050100-
Prince William Sound-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050100-
Port Valdez-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the morning...
becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050100-
Valdez Narrows-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050100-
Valdez Arm-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050100-
Passage Canal-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier early this 
morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050100-
Barren Islands East-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050100-
Chiniak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming Variable wind less than 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050100-
Marmot Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming Variable wind less than 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050100-
Shelikof Strait-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft 
in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050100-
Kachemak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

555 
FZAK51 PAFC 050000
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051245-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1016 mb low 200 nm south of Cold Bay will move to 250 nm south of
Middleton Island at 988 mb Sun evening and then to 325 nm
southwest of Sitka at 980 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-051245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable winds early becoming SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable winds early becoming SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051245-
Resurrection Bay-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051245-
Prince William Sound-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051245-
Port Valdez-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051245-
Valdez Narrows-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt through the evening. Seas 3 
ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051245-
Valdez Arm-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051245-
Passage Canal-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow
and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051245-
Barren Islands East-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051245-
Chiniak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051245-
Marmot Bay-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051245-
Shelikof Strait-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051245-
Kachemak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Fri Nov 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Not much change aloft today as an upper level high sits over the
north Pacific. The next upper level low pressure upstream is even
west of Kamchatka, which puts the jet stream between these two
features, arcing from the northwest Pacific into the Bering Sea,
over the Alaska Range, and into Canada. Several shortwave troughs
are coming through the flow, one over skirting the Alaska Range
currently, and another over the western Bering Sea.

Sensible weather continues to be dominated by, you guessed it,
FOG! Fog and low stratus continues to stay banked up against the
Chugach and around northern Cook Inlet. It is difficult to
impossible to see on any satellite products, as high cirrus
associated with a passing shortwave is obscuring the view. Surface
observations continue to show it hanging around, but signs point
to the fog/stratus deck beginning to erode from the north already
this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in great agreement with the development of a cold
advection outflow pattern today. The next dynamic system, over the
weekend, is also very well agreed upon. Both domains favored the
NAMnest.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog/stratus once again is the forecast challenge. While the
first real chance at mixing it out comes this morning, it isn't as
clear cut as it seems. The fog sits below a steep temperature
inversion, while cold advection and stronger flow from the north
are increasing above the inversion. The big question this morning
is, do these winds mix out the inversion and low level moisture?
The most likely scenario at this point is that the winds do begin
to churn things up, first increasing visibility by mid-morning,
with a stratus deck hanging around until afternoon. Confidence is
increasing that through the day we will completely mix out the
moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A low amplitude short-wave trough moving over top of the upper
level ridge will cross the Copper River Basin today bringing
mainly a bit of mountain snow along the Alaska Range and the
Wrangell Mountains. For the lower elevations, the best bet for
some light snow would be along and near the Tok Cutoff. Cold air
advection accompanying this wave combined with strengthening
winds at all levels (as the ridge amplifies over the northern
Bering Sea) will lead to strong gusty winds along the coast.
The increased low level flow will also help break the dense fog
which has been siting in the Anchorage area for the past few
days. However, do not expect the winds to reach the surface in
Anchorage, so it is possible that some shallow fog could persist
in the area. It wouldn't be as widespread or dense as what is in
place this morning. If fog does survive, conditions will become a
little more favorable for fog late tonight through Saturday as the
ridge moves back overhead.

The upper ridge will move quickly across Southcentral on Saturday.
A high amplitude, neutrally tilted trough will then move in from
the west Saturday night, tapping into moisture over the north-
central Pacific. Confidence continues to increase that most of
Southcentral will see some snow as this trough crosses through
Saturday night through Sunday. It will be a quick shot, so
general looking at a 1-3 inch type event. Areas along the coast
and Kodiak Island will likely be warm enough to start as rain,
though colder air moving in may change it to snow before ending.
Things could still change with such a fast moving dynamic feature,
so will closely monitor the next cycle of model guidance to see
if there are any key differences from what they are currently
depicting.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
High pressure remains over southwest Alaska bringing fog to the
area. Most of the fog should diminish today with only some patchy
areas reforming around Bristol Bay tonight. The ridging itself
will push off to the east tonight while a front will move in over
the Kuskokwim Delta this evening. Then on Saturday a shortwave
will move through southwest Alaska from the north bringing rain
and snow to the area before more high pressure builds in on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A weak front over the central Bering will diminish and push off to
the north as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will
then track east and make it to the west coast on Sunday. Another
front will follow behind the high moving over the Western
Aleutians Saturday night and to the Central Aleutians Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through
Thursday)...

Active weather is on tap for this weekend as a trough over the
west coast of Alaska digs into the Mainland. A weak surface low
over the southern Alaska Peninsula Saturday night will track
northeastward into the southwest Gulf, where it will then phase
with a strong shortwave dropping south. This shortwave along with favorable
jet dynamics aloft will provide the upper-level support for the
weak surface low to rapidly strengthen over the southern Gulf
Sunday. At this time, the shortwave will break off and form a
closed low atop the surface low. Models are struggling coming to a
consensus on the track and strength of the now vertically-stacked
low, however expect a stormy Sunday and Monday in the Gulf with
winds generally subsiding Tuesday and Wednesday.

The upper-level shortwave dropping down from the north and the
surface low moving in from the southwest will make for a tricky
precipitation forecast this weekend. QPF amounts and timing will
be highly dependent on the track of the low and the timing of the
wave. However, the setup for a quick shot of fairly widespread
precipitation over Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf Saturday night
to Sunday morning continues to look increasingly favorable with
subsequent model runs. With cold air quickly pushing southward and
rapid height falls aloft, expect the majority of the
precipitation over inland areas to fall as snow, with some mixed
precipitation and rain possible along parts of the northern Gulf
Coast.

Over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea, it looks like a pattern
change is in store starting late Sunday. The high amplitude upper
level ridge that had been present over the past week will finally
break down as a series of shortwaves begin to erode the longwave
ridge. As this happens, colder air will begin to filter out of
Russia and move back over the Bering Sea which should re-introduce
convective showers to the Bering Sea while a series of
disturbances will push across the Bering Sea. It's safe to say the
docile period highlighted by fog and warmer weather will be
coming to end by early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RD