Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2017
Small Craft Advisory 733, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Sep 29, 2017, 3:40 PM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 29, 2017, 3:40 PM AKDT (23:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 30, 2017, 3:50 AM AKDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
829 FZAK51 PAFC 292340 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-301300- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... An elongated 1008 mb low 70 nm Southeast of Kodiak City dissipates 235 nm South of Middleton Island for Sat afternoon. A weak trough persists across the North Gulf Coast and Southeastern Alaska through Sun afternoon. A front moves into the Southern Gulf by Sun afternoon. $$ PKZ119-301300- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt except N 20 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-301300- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt out of Resurrection Bay after midnight. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt out of Resurrection Bay. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ121-301300- Resurrection Bay- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. .SAT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-301300- Prince William Sound- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-301300- Port Valdez- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-301300- Valdez Narrows- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-301300- Valdez Arm- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-301300- Passage Canal- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Near Whittier...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Near Whittier...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-301300- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt...becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. .MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ131-301300- Barren Islands East- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ132-301300- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ136-301300- Chiniak Bay- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-301300- Marmot Bay- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-301300- Shelikof Strait- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt except N wind 20 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt except NW wind 15 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-301300- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ140-301300- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ141-301300- Kachemak Bay- 340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
1 follow-up statement
204 FZAK51 PAFC 301150 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-010045- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 1008 mb low 70 nm southeast of Chignik dissipates near Cordova Sat night. A gale force front moves into the Southern Gulf Sun night. $$ PKZ119-010045- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ120-010045- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ121-010045- Resurrection Bay- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-010045- Prince William Sound- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-010045- Port Valdez- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-010045- Valdez Narrows- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-010045- Valdez Arm- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-010045- Passage Canal- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt developing near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-010045- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ131-010045- Barren Islands East- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ132-010045- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY... .TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ136-010045- Chiniak Bay- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-010045- Marmot Bay- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-010045- Shelikof Strait- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY... .TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-010045- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ140-010045- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Patchy fog. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-010045- Kachemak Bay- 350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 29, 4:58 AM AKDT, 10 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 4:58 AM AKDT, 10 hours 42 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 458 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A broad baroclinic zone is stretched out along the Alaska Range through the Aleutian Range this morning. Some weak showers are associated with it from King Salmon up through the Susitna Valley. The upper level low that was responsible for pushing much of the moisture associated with the boundary continues to spin and weaken just south of Seward. It continues to pull moisture from the Gulf and make for rainy conditions along the North Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low over the Arctic is swinging a cold trough through the western half of the state. This feature has about 105 kts of jet support aloft and will help to keep the pattern progressive. Over the Bering and much of SW AK, a modest ridge is nudging into the area. The subtropical jet is moving up and over the ridge at about 125 kts. This is reinforcing the northerly flow which is keeping gusty winds going along the Western Capes and the Alaska Peninsula. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models remain in fairly good agreement, lending to moderate to high forecast confidence. Overall, the NAM Nest (higher resolution) was preferred in handling the short term. The most notable model trend was towards a much stronger and faster new low pressure center moving from the North Pacific towards Kodiak late Sun into Mon. The GFS was used to make some fairly significant changes to the forecast for this time period. && .AVIATION... PANC...The northerly gradient was enough overnight to overwhelm the southeast winds. There could still be some very light shear over the Turnagain Arm and higher elevations this morning. VFR conditions will persist, even with some passing showers. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The upper level low over southern Alaska will slowly slide east today. Showers will continue today, especially in the areas surrounding Prince William Sound. One last vort-max will push down from the northwest this evening, and the low will exit the area tonight. Showers will end, and skies will begin to clear. Dry conditions are then expected through Sunday morning as an upper level high settles in over southwest Alaska, with northwest flow aloft over Southcentral. At the surface, offshore flow will develop today and continue through Saturday with cooler air pushing into the area. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Rain and snow along the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges will end by this evening as upper ridging and increasing northerly flow aloft builds over the region. This pattern will bring in a cooler modified Arctic air mass, with temperatures dropping below freezing across much of the inner mainland locations tonight and again Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... A gale force front will move into the western Bering Sea tonight and move northeast through Saturday night. This front will then stall out over the central Bering Sea while high pressure ridging moves over the eastern Bering Sea. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Sunday through Thursday)... The forecast period commences with a high amplitude ridge spanning from the Gulf Of Alaska to the North Slope and a closed low south of Sand Point. Upstream, there will be another vortex churning just east of Kamchatka. Sensible weather-wise, expect another sunny day on Sunday over the Anchorage Metro area and the Prince William Sound. As time elapses, anticipate a progressive pattern as the pair of lows careen eastward. By midweek, another cyclone moves into the Bering. Overall, past Sunday the models continue to struggle with this transition period which impact the timing and the placement of the precipitation shields. High confidence that next week will be dominated by unsettled and moist conditions. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning 177 178 185. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA LONG TERM...PS
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 10:16 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 6 hr | |
| Sep 29, 3:53 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Sep 29, 3:59 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Sep 29, 3:59 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Sep 29, 3:12 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Sep 29, 3:16 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 3 days |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2017Every small craft advisory in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.