Small Craft Advisory 722, NWS Anchorage, AK

816 
FZAK52 PAFC 272313
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281145-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb North Pacific 100 nm southeast of Sitkinak will move into
the western Gulf by Thu morning. High pressure over the southwest
Bering will move to the central Bering Fri.

$$

PKZ150-281145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281145-
Bristol Bay-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-281145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281145-
Unalaska Bay-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281145-
Adak to Kiska-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281145-
Kiska to Attu-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-281145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-281145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low near the Alaska Peninsula is digging
southeastward today. The jet stream is running well south of the
Aleutians and then turns sharply to the northeast around the base
of the upper level low. A large upper level ridge is establishing
itself over the western Bering Sea and will persist the next few
days.
At the surface there is high pressure over the interior of the
state with lows in the Gulf of Alaska. The northernmost low is
close to Middleton Island and will dissipate overnight. It is
enough to keep some breezy gap winds through channeled terrain
near the Gulf coast. A complex low near the southwestern Gulf is
consolidating into a single low overnight. This will set up a
pattern to bring northerly flow over the Bering Sea region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in decent agreement and all show the weak low in the
southwest Gulf getting quickly absorbed into the more southerly
low tonight. GFS was preferred synoptically with the way it
handled the low after tonight. Some NAMnest was used for gap winds
along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The stratus from this morning is not expected to return
tonight as mid-level clouds move into the area and keep the sharp
inversion from developing again. Winds will remain mainly from the
north and stay under 10 kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An area of low pressure currently developing near 50N 150W will
quickly move into the southern Gulf of Alaska tonight. A warm
front preceding the low pressure system will begin to impact the
northern gulf coast Wednesday morning with moderate to heavy
rainfall possible all the way from the pacific side of the Kenai
Peninsula eastward toward Cordova. The most recent shift in model
guidance shows a more eastward track that hints at downsloping
winds increasing on Wednesday. This will make it rather difficult
to see much of the rainfall move into Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley on Wednesday. However, some rain may make it across the
mountains tomorrow night or early Thursday morning as an upper
level vort max moves over the Anchorage and helps maximize upward
vertical motion.

Gap winds will strengthen on Wednesday and come in aggressively
and quickly Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds being
observed across Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley where winds from
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will be possible. Some gusty
winds will be observed out of the Knik River Valley to where
Palmer could see some gusts upwards to 35 mph. Rainfall will
remain likely along the coast and Alaska Range through Thursday as
the front stalls over the coast and weakens while inland locations
should still remain largely on the dry side.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The bulk of the southwest mainland will remain in a dry offshore
flow regime through Thursday as the pressure gradient continues to
tighten ahead of the low poised to move into the western Gulf.
Patchy fog will be possible again tonight across portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta as a persistent low stratus deck has helped to
hold dew points in the low to mid 40s for much of the day, with
eventual clearing this evening then setting the stage for optimal
radiational cooling overnight. Otherwise, the offshore flow will
help to keep fog potential very minimal for most other locations
the next few nights. The chance for rain will return to eastern
Bristol Bay and areas along the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges
Wednesday night into Thursday as the low and an associated front
move into the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering region will continue to settle into a quiet pattern
through Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Increasing northerly flow ahead of the approaching low will
promote gusty winds and a few showers over the eastern half of the
Bering, mostly focused along the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Day 3 (Friday) will start off with a ridge axis over Attu Island and
spanning northward into Russia, and a trough of low pressure over
much of the southern Mainland. Models are showing a pair of upper
level lows, one near Kenai and a second one south over the Gulf Of
Alaska. The low pressure system that is expected to be set up over
the western Gulf will bring continue to bring additional rainfall to
the gulf coast before dissipating Saturday morning. The surface
ridge over the Bering will get shifted eastward as the next front
tracks eastward over the Bering Friday night through Monday.

During the early half of next week, the models hinting at a
secondary shot of reinforcing energy with the next upper level
trough and associated surface low tracking through the Bering and
spreading through much of the southern Mainland by Tuesday. At this
point models are struggling with the timing and track of the systems
following the above mentioned low as they work their way across the
Bering and potentially into the southwest Mainland during the mid-to-
late week time frame. Therefore, confidence remains low in the
forecast from Monday through Wednesday next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood warning zone 121 and 125.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PS/TP