Small Craft Advisory 720, NWS Anchorage, AK

892 
FZAK52 PAFC 271138
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-280045-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb North Pacific low will move to 100 nm southeast of
Sitkinak at 988 mb this afternoon, then weaken as it moves into 
the western Gulf by Thu afternoon. High pressure over the 
southwest Bering will strengthen as it moves to the central Bering
by Thu night. 

$$

PKZ150-280045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ155-280045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ160-280045-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-280045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-280045-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-280045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-280045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-280045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-280045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-280045-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-280045-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-280045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-280045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-280045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-280045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

816 
FZAK52 PAFC 272313
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281145-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb North Pacific 100 nm southeast of Sitkinak will move into
the western Gulf by Thu morning. High pressure over the southwest
Bering will move to the central Bering Fri.

$$

PKZ150-281145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281145-
Bristol Bay-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-281145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281145-
Unalaska Bay-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281145-
Adak to Kiska-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281145-
Kiska to Attu-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-281145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-281145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked upper level low is currently located over
Cold Bay and moving southwest while slowly dissipating. A
northward moving portion of the sub-tropical jet stream is
advecting a large plume of moisture and warm air north into the
Gulf of Alaska. A surface front associated with the leading edge
of this warm moist air is spreading into Southcentral, with rain
and gusty winds beginning to develop in Kodiak and the Northern
Gulf Coast. Out in the Bering, an area of high pressure is nudging
east over the Western Aleutians leading to large scale northerly
flow across most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the overall
synoptic pattern over the state including the surface low and
warm front moving north into the Gulf of Alaska today. Models
begin to diverge on Wednesday as some solutions form an embedded
shortwave trough within the main low and swing it up into the
Northern Gulf Coast. The NAM is more aggressive and forms a
separate low center along the coast leading to a storm force
barrier jet. The GFS and EC are less bullish with this feature and
have shown more consistency over the past couple of days, so the
forecast package leaned more towards those solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the day
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weakening gale force low moving into the Southern Gulf will be
the focus for most of the weather in the area over the next few
days. The models have trended further east with the position of
this low, and as a result winds/seas in the Shelikof Strait- Cook
Inlet areas were dropped with the morning forecast package as a
much weaker pressure gradient will develop than initially
expected. Another impact of this shift in the low track was to
delay the heaviest of the rainfall along the Gulf Coast until late
this evening. There is some uncertainty in the exact timing in
how quickly rainfall will spread westward back into the region,
but model consensus would indicate that rain should spread
throughout the Gulf Coast by late tonight, and then into
Southcentral for Wednesday. This could occur slightly
faster/slower depending on which model solution you look at, but
there is good agreement that rain will spread into most areas at
some point by Wednesday. Afterwards, conditions should begin to
improve over Southcentral from east-west late Wednesday. However,
with a slowly approaching Gulf low showers will likely continue
with increasing winds into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Northerly offshore flow is increasing this morning across the
coastal regions. However, winds have been weak enough for some fog
development across parts of the Kuskokwim Delta this morning.
This should burn off quickly by late morning with dry conditions
then persisting until a front moving toward Kodiak Island spreads
light rain over the Alaska Range Wednesday into Thursday. Dry
conditions will remain over the Delta as cooler northerly winds
continue through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A period of unusual quiescent weather looks to continue through
Thursday as broad northerly flow encompasses the entire Bering
Sea. Besides sporadic showers, winds will remain below 30 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Day 3 (Thursday) will start off with a surface ridge centered
over Shemya that extends across the vast majority of the Bering
Sea and an area of low pressure over Kodiak Island. This low
pressure system will bring decent rainfall to the gulf coast and
Kodiak Island before it weakens on Friday and begins to drift
eastward. The sfc ridge over the Bering will quickly retreat into
the North Pacific over the weekend as a pattern shift begins to
take hold across Alaska and Alaskan waters. The pattern change
comes in the form of the upper level pattern shifting from a more
subtropical (meridional) influence to a more arctic (zonal)
influence. This will keep the subtropical jet well south of Alaska
while the arctic jet begins to strengthen as cold air begins to
build up over Russia. It's that time of the year where the cold
air over Russia helps low pressure systems develop/strengthen over
Kamchatka and Siberia and the models are hinting at the potential
for several robust system to push off the Russian coast and into
the Bering Sea next weekend and through the first half of next
week. It's way too soon to give any details on any potential
system next week but the pattern change is on the way.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121 125.
MARINE...Gale Warning 132.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...TP