Small Craft Advisory 706, NWS Anchorage, AK

962 
FZAK52 PAFC 221151
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230115-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 310 nm south of Adak moves to 70 nm south of Seward at 
994 mb by Sun morning. The associated front moves across the eastern
Aleutians into the Southern mainland through Sun morning. High 
pressure persists over the Western Bering through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-230115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt except NW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230115-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230115-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230115-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230115-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

224 
FZAK52 PAFC 222238
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231115-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 mb low 220 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor moves to 40 nm east
of Kodiak at 992 mb by Sat afternoon. A 993 mb low will develop 40 
nm southwest of Cape Newenham Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-231115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15
kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231115-
Bristol Bay-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231115-
Unalaska Bay-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231115-
Adak to Kiska-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231115-
Kiska to Attu-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
238 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Steady rainfall has begun pushing into the Cook Inlet region this
afternoon, with Kenai radar showing rain over much of the area
and spreading north up into the Matanuska and Susitna Valley. The
upper level ridge that was over south central Alaska has been pushed
east by the invading upper level low over Norton Sound. The
weakening warm front associated with a slow moving broad low
swirling south of the central Aleutians remains extended across
the eastern half of the Aleutians and into the Bristol Bay area.
This front in conjunction with the upper low slowly tracking
south remains the primary sources of lift for the light rainfall
persisting across parts of the southwest Mainland. The low south
of the Aleutians is keeping light rainfall ongoing across much of
the chain as warm, moist air streams north ahead of the low and
is lifted above the cooler air mass near the surface.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement on the synoptic scale remains very good through
the remainder of the week. The NAM model was preferred for the
first two days with a transition to GFS beyond that. This was due
to the need to continue toward the GFS solution beyond the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Periods of rain with predominantly MVFR ceilings are
expected overnight with improvement during the day Friday. Periods
of VFR ceilings may also occur but it looks predominant Marginal
conditions until winds become southeast Friday afternoon which
will usher in higher ceilings and less rain. Visibility will
mostly remain VFR with just some occasional MVFR conditions
expected through the night. Some low level wind shear will be in
the area through this evening as winds switch form north at the
surface to easterly winds around 1000 to 2000 ft. The easterly
winds should diminish this evening ending the wind shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Southcentral Alaska region and the Gulf is predominantly
influenced by southwesterly upper level flow. While a weak 1000
mb low is tracking across the Aleutian Range into lower Cook
Inlet with an associated weather front to track from Kodiak
north into the north Gulf coast by this evening. This synoptic
feature is producing widespread rain through the aforementioned
regions extending into the Mat-Su Valleys, and the Anchorage Bowl
as the precipitation continues to spread into the central
interior. Look for the Anchorage Bowl to downslope resulting in
drier conditions as the winds begin to shift more southeasterly to
easterly direction resulting in a cross-barrier flow by Friday
morning. While the Eastern Kenai Peninsula is being closely
watched with an issuance of a Flood Warning in effect through 1PM
Monday for a Glacier Damned lake outburst in the Snowy River. This
outburst will affect Kenai Lake, and the Kenai River from Cooper
Landing to Skilak Lake. This abundant rainfall along the
aforementioned area will contribute to higher river levels.
Meanwhile, as we head into Saturday a new low pushes over Kodiak
Island with another barrier jet developing along the northern
Gulf by Saturday afternoon. This will bring another round of
widespread rain accompanied by gusty Turnagain Arm winds, and gale
force easterly winds along the north Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front that has pushed in over southwest Alaska has stalled
over an area that stretches from eastern parts of Bristol Bay to
the Alaska Range. The front will continue to bring rain to this
area into Friday. However, as the front dissipates Friday, a low
will approach the area from the south Friday night into Saturday
bringing more rain to the same areas. For the Kuskokwim Delta
region, a low will drop down over the area from the north on
Saturday bringing some rain to the area, primarily along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the southern Bering Sea has stalled and will bring
continued rain to the eastern Aleutians into Friday and the
Alaska Peninsula through much of Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure
has built in over the western Bering Sea and will remain dominant
through Saturday keeping northerly flow over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians through the same timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Saturday evening, with an
upper level low tracking south over the eastern Bering Sea and
bringing waves of North Pacific moisture north toward the Gulf of
Alaska and southern Mainland through the early part of next week.
This pattern will support wet weather across the region into
Sunday afternoon, as a front will move toward the Gulf coast.
Gusty winds are also expected to increase along the Gulf coast
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, as the front pushes up
along the north Gulf coast.

Showers will begin tapering off over much of the southern
mainland by Monday morning, and remain slightly drier through
Tuesday morning when the next system begins tracking into the Gulf
of Alaska. Precipitation will begin to spread north back into the
southwest mainland and north Gulf coast Tuesday afternoon, as a
north Pacific low tracks north into the western Gulf of Alaska.
There is some disagreement between the models with regards to the
track and timing of this system, which impacts when the
precipitation spreads further inland. Currently the forecast is
trending toward precipitation moving further inland overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning, with the low tracking inland over
the Kenai peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121 and 125.
MARINE...Gale 119, . FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ/TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP