Small Craft Advisory 664, NWS Anchorage, AK

087 
FZAK52 PAFC 081131
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090045-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
Bogoslof Volcano, located 53 nm NW of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active.

High pressure will build over the western Bering Sea through
tonight. A 1004 mb low 80 nm southeast of Gambell Sat morning 
will move to 50 nm west of Cape Newenham at 1005 mb Sat evening 
before dissipating Sat night. A front will approach the western 
Aleutians Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
Bristol Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
Unalaska Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
Adak to Kiska-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
Kiska to Attu-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad longwave trough extends south from the Arctic through
western Alaska and across the Alaska Peninsula. The main low that
is moving through the trough that will impact southern Alaska is
south of the Alaska Peninsula and tracking east towards the Gulf.
West of the trough, high pressure is building in over the Western
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the main synoptic features
through the mid term until Saturday night when they struggle with
the placement of a low approaching the Western Aleutians from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Winds will continue to taper off this morning becoming
light and southeasterly. VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak southerly flow aloft today will allow some showers to make
their way inland. Along the north Gulf coast, more numerous
showers will continue, especially western Prince William Sound.
Interior areas will dry out late tonight into Friday morning as
upper level high pressure builds in. A fairly weak weather front
associated with a low working eastward across the coast will
bring rain to coastal areas tonight into Friday morning. The rain
will change to showers Friday afternoon as the front breaks apart
and the low moves into the eastern Gulf. A few showers could sneak
inland Friday afternoon and evening. The low will then stall in
the eastern Gulf Friday night into Saturday morning, and showers
will diminish across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southwest
Alaska through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
entrenched across the region. A weak shortwave trapped between an
upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula (remnants of Sanvu) and
northwestern Alaska will help enhance some showers along the
Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains this afternoon. It looks like the
potential for thunderstorms, which had been observed the past two
days, looks rather marginal for Thursday as temperatures aloft
begin to warm and limit any mid-level or upper-level instability.
Some gusty winds will develop along the Alaska Peninsula this
evening behind the remnants of Sanvu as some cold air wraps around
the system. These gusts will be in the 25 to 30 kt range as the
gradient around the low continues to weaken as the low weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The remnants of Sanvu will enter the Gulf of Alaska this evening
leaving a ridge of high pressure building in its wake. The Bering
Sea will be rather stable with just a few showers developing
along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge as a few
disturbances ride down from the arctic. Decent fog and low stratus
will likely develop underneath the ridge axis and is now
reflected in the current forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Sat through Wed)...
The mid to long range will feature relatively quiet weather. There
will be a long-wave trough over the Gulf of AK with a transient
ridge over the Bering. Within the trough, a surface low will drift
slowly east through the weekend. It will serve to focus the
heaviest precipitation mainly along the northern Gulf coast. As
the low slides east into Sunday, it should allow for slowly drying
conditions across the Cook Inlet area with weak offshore flow. On
the western-most side of the trough, the door will open for some
energy to drop through Southwest AK from the Bering Strait area.
This will produce on and off bouts of rain. These pieces of
energy will work in succession to try to bring some colder air
into Southern AK. It is starting to be that time of year
(climatologically) for colder air to creep south. However, all of
these attempts seem to be stymied by the AK Range (for now).

As we get into the week of Sept 11-15th, the pattern will remain
progressive and it looks like there could be some tropical
remnants working into the pattern (TD 19W). The end result of
these two factors is that the models start to really struggle. The
GFS is a bit more bullish with some phasing over the Bering,
while the EC is stronger with a system in the Eastern Gulf. That
said, there does not appear to be any super strong storms on the
horizon at this time. Forecast confidence is low in the exact
timing of rain and wind with any given system.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...MO