Small Craft Advisory 642, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
FZAK51 PAFC 310249 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-311515-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 mb low 25 nm southeast of Kodiak City moves into the Kenai 
Peninsula and dissipates by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-311515-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 40 kt
diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.


$$

PKZ120-311515-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-311515-
Resurrection Bay-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-311515-
Prince William Sound-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-311515-
Port Valdez-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the late evening.
Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-311515-
Valdez Narrows-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the late
evening. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-311515-
Valdez Arm-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3  ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-311515-
Passage Canal-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-311515-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE in the late evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-311515-
Barren Islands East-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-311515-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-311515-
Chiniak Bay-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2  ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-311515-
Marmot Bay-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-311515-
Shelikof Strait-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft  building to 5 ft after midnight. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-311515-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-311515-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft  after midnight. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
 subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-311515-
Kachemak Bay-
649 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

804 
FZAK51 PAFC 311152
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010100-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 mb low 65 nm south of Homer will weaken and move inland Thu 
night. High pressure will build over the Eastern Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-010100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010100-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010100-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010100-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010100-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010100-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010100-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming w 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010100-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010100-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010100-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010100-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 t.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010100-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad 980 mb low centered over the northern end of Kodiak Island
remains the primary driver of the weather pattern across southern
Alaska this morning. Deep onshore flow and orographic enhancement
along the coastal mountain ranges is keeping the bulk of the rain
focused over the North Gulf Coast, with downslope flow helping to
keep inland portions of Southcentral AK mostly dry. Rain has also
spread west into portions of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley as what's left of the front continues to push inland. The
Bering Sea remains locked in a fairly benign northerly flow
pattern between the Kodiak Island low and high pressure building
in from the west, although some gusty winds are present from the
Pribilof Islands eastward to the coast as the pressure gradient
tightens between these two features.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement through the end of the work
week as the upper trough over the Gulf lifts slowly northward into
Southcentral AK, with the surface low over Kodiak Island
eventually moving into the Upper Cook Inlet region and dissipating
by Thursday night. This will keep abundant rainfall focused along
the Gulf Coast, with showery conditions prevailing elsewhere
across the southern mainland as shortwave energy from the Arctic
helps to reestablish the longwave trough farther to the west over
the Y-K Delta region by Friday. Mainly utilized a NAM/GFS blend
for the morning forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Strong downslope flow is expected to keep any showers away
from the terminal through the TAF period, although a few showers
may develop elsewhere in the Anchorage Bowl. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through Thursday morning. Gusty southeast
winds may make it into the terminal during the afternoon as the
down inlet pressure gradient slackens a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather around Southcentral Alaska will be slow to change
much over the next few days with the longwave trough over the
area. The surface low over Kodiak Island will stay nearly
stationary through tonight and then move up Cook Inlet tomorrow
and be absorbed into a low in the interior. This basic situation
will be happening at the upper levels as well.

What all this means for the forecast is that the downslope on the
lee side of the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains will
continue today keeping most of the rain showers away with the ones
that make it through only producing light rainfall. The north
Gulf Coast will see a number of inches of rain over the next few
days with the focus shifting from eastern Prince William Sound to
Western Prince William sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

As the low lifts northward on Thursday and Thursday night it will
cut off the downslope and likely bring some rain into the lee
side areas that are currently in the rain shadow so POPs for those
time frames were increased over upper Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su
regions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The very slowly moving upper low over Kodiak Island along with a
separate trough descending down the west coast will be the focal
points for widespread rainfall over much of the Southwest today.
The exception to this will be over the Kuskokwim Delta as a very
abrupt break in the western edge of the rainfall has developed
just to the east of Bethel. As a result there is increasing
confidence that areas from Bethel west will remain dry with even
some sunny breaks and continued gusty northerly winds during the
day today. This agreement begins to break down this evening-
Thursday as the upper trough approaches. Further east over the
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay, cold air associated with the
upper level trough moving into the area will cause for the rain to
redevelop throughout the area by this evening, then persist for
most of the day Thursday. This active pattern will then continue
into Friday as yet another upper trough quickly moves overhead,
bringing clouds and rain to much of the region into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Northerly flow will continue over much of the region today,
however overnight satellite imagery indicated more stratus
development than initially expected, so most areas won't see as
much clearing as first thought today. Showers will then spread
into the Central Bering by this evening as a weak trough moves
through, which will then spread into the Aleutian chain late
tonight. Over the Western Aleutians, a weak frontal system will
bring rain to the area for Thursday ahead of a stronger low
expected to impact the area for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
More cool and wet weather is expected. A highly dynamic pattern
is on tap for this forecast period with broad troughing
influencing the entire state. This weekend expect a low north of
the Western Aleutians concurrent with a pair of lows over the
mainland. As time elapses expecting southwest flow to set up over
the AK Peninsula with moisture being advected into southcentral
AK. This forecast package, the pops where bumped up to reflect the
run to run consistency with the ECMWF with regard to the trio of
lows and the sensible weather highlights.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 131 135
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PJS