Small Craft Advisory 606, NWS Anchorage, AK

544 
FZAK52 PAFC 172330
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181230-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A 1006 mb low 435 nm east of Saint Paul will dissipate Friday 
afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure remains across the Bering 
Sea through the period.


$$

PKZ150-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181230-
Bristol Bay-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181230-
Unalaska Bay-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming Variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt late evening. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft by midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181230-
Adak to Kiska-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181230-
Kiska to Attu-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt by midnight. Seas 
4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt late evening. Seas 
7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt late evening. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

020 
FZAK52 PAFC 181131
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A 1000 mb low 200 NM south of Adak will weaken to 1003 mb 190 NM
south of Nikolski Sat evening before dissipating. Broad low 
pressure over the Bering Sea will be replaced by high pressure by
Sun.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level PV anomaly digging
southward from the northern Bering Sea to the Alaska Peninsula.
This upper level forcing caused widespread rainfall across much
of the forecast area today from the Alaska Peninsula to the north
Gulf of Alaska coast. To the west of this, high pressure is
dominating the western and central Bering and supporting a broad
stratus deck with occasional glimpses of blue skies. In between
these two features, a low level jet is bringing gusty gale force
winds across much of the Central Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

In the short term, models are in fairly good agreement with the
GFS favored for the majority of the forecast. There are some
minor mesoscale differences between the models on the intensity of
the low level jet along Cook Inlet and through Turnagain Arm this
evening, but generally these differences are relatively small.
There are also the usual minor differences among the models in the
intensity and location of precipitation, but with fairly strong
forcing and consistency in models, these differences are fairly
small.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...CLoudy and rainy conditions across the Anchorage airport
will persist for much of the afternoon. There is a chance that a
weak Turnagain Arm wind will develop this evening, which should
help to lift ceilings and switch flow to a more southerly or
southeasterly direction. However, the timing of this switch is
still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A typical cool and rainy August pattern will continue over
much of Southcentral through the weekend with a few breaks in
between. A cold upper level low dropping south out of the Bering
Sea is leading to broad moist southwesterly flow over the region
and widespread precipitation. Rain will continue overnight as the
upper low continues to dig south maintaining the overall
southwesterly flow into southcentral. Precipitation looks to taper
off some by tomorrow morning as the first shortwave moves off to
the northeast. Cold air aloft underneath the low will promote
instability leading to showery conditions, especially over the
mountains and the Prince William Sound. With enough daytime
heating, isolated thunderstorms may form over the Talkeetna
Mountains and the Copper River Basin tomorrow afternoon. The
pattern turns messy by Thursday night as several shortwaves
spinning around the base of the upper trough pass through the area
leading to continued chances of rain and showers over most of the
region throughout the day on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough slowly passing over the region will bring
continued cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions to the area east of
Bethel through Thursday. There is an area of clearing that is
developing along the southwest coast which, along with onshore
flow, will aid in the development of patchy fog/low stratus
overnight tonight. One limiting factor in this development is the
lack of extensive low clouds over the Eastern Bering which will
prevent any fog from becoming too dense or widespread. On Friday
a weak shortwave moving over the area will bring continued
cloudcover, however any rainfall from this should be light and
spotty in coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain and gale force northwesterly winds will continue streaming
from the Central Bering into the Eastern Aleutians/AK Pen as a
deformation band passes through. Most of the rainfall from this
system will be focused along a narrow area with the deformation
band, which the models are all in good agreement will setup from
just east of the Pribilof Islands southward into the AK Pen. As a
result small changes in the location of this band will have big
implications in how much rain will fall, but at this point there
is reasonable confidence that the heaviest rainfall will occur
along the Bering coast of the AK Pen. Starting on Friday, the
extra tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Banyan will have
weakened substantially as it moves into the Central/Eastern
Aleutians. There is very good confidence that this system will
have weakened to small craft or less by the time it approaches the
chain, with no significant impacts expected to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active wet pattern continues in the long range forecast
Saturday through late next Tuesday. A merger of two low pressure
systems is anticipated for this upcoming weekend. A broad trough
deepens over the western coast and shifts east through Saturday.
At the same time a fast paced North Pacific low races along the
Aleutian Chain, taking a northward turn Saturday night. The merger
of these two systems will likely bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along the Gulf coastal areas and Southcentral. Models differ in
timing and track of this merger, therefore a broad brushed
solution of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS were used to update
the inherited forecast. For the Bering and Southwest mainland, a
short break with drier conditions settles in Sunday as a ridge
builds behind the eastward moving trough over the mainland. On
Monday rain moves back into the southwest coast from a fast diving
low off of Kamchatka, and another North Pacific front moves into
the western Bering/Aleutians along an eastward progressive
subtropical jet streak.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 155 170 171 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ELN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
959 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

AKZ101-171200-
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian,
and Eklutna
959 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Moderate to heavy rainfall is causing streams and creeks to
rise in Anchorage...

Continued moderate to heavy rainfall through the evening hours
over Anchorage has caused water levels on area streams and creeks
to rise. Additional rainfall is expected over the next several
hours, especially over west Anchorage, which will allow water
levels to continue to rise. Some minor flooding, especially near
Chester Creek, is likely until rainfall begins to taper off after
midnight. Impacts from flooding will be relatively minor with
ponding of water in roadways and portions of the Chester Creek
bike path becoming inundated.

For the latest weather forecasts, please visit www.weather.gov/afc.