Small Craft Advisory 604, NWS Anchorage, AK

251 
FZAK52 PAFC 162332
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171230-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure over the western Aleutians will slowly shift south
into the North Pacific through Fri morning. A 994 mb low 120 NM
west of Gambell will move to 90 NM west of Cape Newenham and 
weaken to 996 mb Thu morning, then move inland and dissipate Thu 
afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure will remain across the 
northern and eastern Bering through Friday evening.

$$

PKZ150-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt...except increasing to 35 kt W of the 
Shumagin Islands after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt...except 35 kt W of the Shumagin Islands in the
morning. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171230-
Bristol Bay-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Patchy morning fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 14 
ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171230-
Unalaska Bay-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171230-
Adak to Kiska-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171230-
Kiska to Attu-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 15 
ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW by midnight. Seas 6 ft. Patchy 
fog after midnight.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW by midnight. Seas 6 ft. Patchy 
fog after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 PM AKDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

775 
FZAK52 PAFC 171121
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180045-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A 997 mb low will move to 40 NM west of Mekoryuk this morning and
dissipate over Bristol Bay late tonight. A 1000 mb low will move 
to 150 NM south of Adak Fri morning and strengthen to 998 mb as 
it moves to 130 NM south of Atka late Fri. A broad trough of low 
pressure will remain across the Bering Sea through the period.

$$

PKZ150-180045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180045-
Bristol Bay-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180045-
Unalaska Bay-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180045-
Adak to Kiska-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180045-
Kiska to Attu-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
321 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

544 
FZAK52 PAFC 172330
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181230-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A 1006 mb low 435 nm east of Saint Paul will dissipate Friday 
afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure remains across the Bering 
Sea through the period.


$$

PKZ150-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181230-
Bristol Bay-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181230-
Unalaska Bay-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming Variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt late evening. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft by midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181230-
Adak to Kiska-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181230-
Kiska to Attu-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt by midnight. Seas 
4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt late evening. Seas 
7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt late evening. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

020 
FZAK52 PAFC 181131
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A 1000 mb low 200 NM south of Adak will weaken to 1003 mb 190 NM
south of Nikolski Sat evening before dissipating. Broad low 
pressure over the Bering Sea will be replaced by high pressure by
Sun.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 AM AKDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Yesterday's upper level lows in the eastern portion of the
forecast area have weakened slightly as they've moved off to the
east, while in the west the upper level low has moved southward
over the eastern Aleutians. The end result is an upper level
pattern that has shifted slightly to the west, with the main axis
of the upper level trough lying over Western Alaska. Consequently,
the flow across the southern mainland has become more zonal over
the past few days. Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure
system scooting across the southern Gulf, with mostly cloudy
conditions prevailing across most of the mainland and into the
eastern Aleutians. Daytime heating is starting to break up the
clouds over Southcentral, but in the Southwest, onshore flow is
causing them to linger this morning. Clouds extend further south
and west into the Eastern Aleutians, associated with a weak trough
approaching the mainland from the southwest. Meanwhile, in the
Central Aleutians through the Western Bering, it looks to be
quite a nice day as skies have cleared aloft, although northerly
winds remain a bit fresh through the Central Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Good agreement between model solutions remains through Thursday
evening. NAM was the model choice of the day for the short term
forecast, with high confidence in the near term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Turnagain Arm winds are expected to increase again late this
afternoon at the terminal, although they won't be as gusty as
yesterday. VFR conditions will remain through overnight, with cigs
falling below 5000 feet as the rain moves in Wednesday morning.
Around noon tomorrow, persistent rain is expected to drop the
cigs to MVFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak upper level ridging will continue to support decent weather
this evening, especially across the Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60's for
most locations. A few showers will pop up over the Northern Kenai
and Western Chugach mountains this evening due to elevated
surface heating. Conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight as
a cold upper level low moves SE from the Bering Sea across the
Aleutian chain and into the Gulf of Alaska by tomorrow. The
orientation of the low will lead to broad southwesterly flow
across the region, a favored flow for moisture advection into
southcentral. Widespread rain looks to develop by at least
tomorrow morning, with precipitation spreading southwest to
northeast across the area. Rain will begin to taper off in the
Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su areas by early Thursday morning while
persisting across the Gulf Coast through at least Thursday night.
Friday looks to be relatively dry before the next system moves in
by Saturday bringing yet another round of precipitation to the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

While some light showers are already occurring this afternoon
across the southwest mainland, conditions are expected to become
much wetter in the short term. An upper level PV anomaly currently
over the northern Bering will intensify and stretch southward
across Bristol Bay this evening and into tomorrow morning. This
upper level forcing in combination with ample moisture supply will
help to support the development of widespread rainfall across
especially the Bristol Bay region Wednesday. While the main PV
anomaly will drift eastward by Wednesday evening, an upper level
trough will remain in place over Bristol Bay and the eastern
Bering Coast, which in combination with southwesterly low level
flow will continue to support showers into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure in the west Bering is helping to support relatively
clear skies in the region and broad northwesterly flow across much
of the Bering. The low level jet between this high pressure system
and the trough over the Kuskokwim Delta coast will gradually
increase through Wednesday afternoon and bring gales to the Central
Bering and Eastern Bering. Fairly dry conditions are expected
across the Bering with the exception of the eastern Bering as a PV
anomaly dives southward.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active wet pattern continues in the long range forecast
Saturday through late next Monday. A merger of two low pressure
systems is anticipated for this upcoming weekend. A broad trough
deepens over the western coast and shifts east through Saturday.
At the same time a fast paced North Pacific low races along the
Aleutian Chain, taking a northward turn Saturday night. The merger
of these two systems will likely bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along the Gulf coastal areas and Southcentral. Models differ in
timing and track of this merger, therefore a broad brushed
solution of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS were used to update
the inherited forecast. For the Bering and Southwest mainland,
a short break with drier conditions settles in Sunday as a ridge
builds behind the eastward moving trough over the mainland. On
Monday, rain moves back into the southwest coast from a fast
diving low off of Kamchatka. Another North Pacific front will then
move into the western Bering/Aleutians along an eastward progressive
subtropical jet streak.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 155 170 171 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ELN
LONG TERM...KH