Small Craft Advisory 563, NWS Anchorage, AK

201 
FZAK51 PAFC 012330
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-021230-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the northern Gulf will move inland tonight through
Wed afternoon. Another front will enter the southern Gulf Wed
night and move to the central and western Gulf by Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-021230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-021230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-021230-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and S of Caines Head. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-021230-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-021230-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-021230-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-021230-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-021230-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-021230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-021230-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-021230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-021230-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-021230-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-021230-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-021230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-021230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-021230-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

254 
FZAK51 PAFC 021144
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030015-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure builds over the Eastern Gulf to the North Gulf Coast
for Fri morning. A front edges into the Western Gulf becoming 
nearly stationary through Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ119-030015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030015-
Resurrection Bay-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030015-
Prince William Sound-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030015-
Port Valdez-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030015-
Valdez Narrows-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030015-
Valdez Arm-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030015-
Passage Canal-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030015-
Barren Islands East-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030015-
Chiniak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030015-
Marmot Bay-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030015-
Shelikof Strait-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030015-
Kachemak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Today's weather pattern is dominated by a few key features. To
begin, high pressure across Canada and into Alaska is slowly
beginning to retreat. An upper level low and attached surface low
are churning away in the Gulf of Alaska. Water vapor analysis
shows a that this low is tapping into Pacific moisture near the
30th parallel. Farther West are two distinct shortwaves heading
towards the mainland. The first is riding along a ridge across the
southern Bering while the other is diving down from Siberia. Both
of these features will come into play bringing weather across the
AOR.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall synoptic model agreement is strong through about days 2
to 3. It is in that timeframe that there is some disagreement with
models in the upper levels and how they transition a digging
trough across the Bering. Guidance is somewhat similar to the
intensity of the trough, surface low (and attached frontal
features) but the biggest difference is in timing. The Canadian
solution is by far the quickest. The GFS and EC are lock and step
with about a 12 hour lag. The NAM is the slowest yet, but is still
painting a similar picture. Beyond 84 hours - features get pretty
messy to decipher and confidence in finer details begins to
decrease. Short term forecasts were tied close to the NAM for
today's forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the area will move into a cloudier and cooler pattern by
late tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the
Southwest Mainland. Ahead of this trough there remains some weak
instability along the southern edge of the thermal trough which
may produce a few thunderstorms along the higher elevations of the
the Copper River Basin this evening, however development so far
this afternoon has been very weak so significant convection is not
expected. Rain will then begin moving into the Gulf Coast late
tonight as a weak low approaches the southern Gulf. Widespread
wetting rains will then spread into Southcentral for Wednesday as
an upper level shortwave approaches from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
There is a weather front slowly moving from west to east as it
tracks across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening. This is bringing
widespread rain accompanied by southerly flow before spreading
eastward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and the Bristol Bay
region by late evening tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
tracks off the northern Bering into the Kuskokwim Delta by Tuesday
afternoon. This brings another round of wetting rains to the
aforementioned region before pushing into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, and the Bristol Bay area by Tuesday evening time-frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The majority of the Bering Sea/Aleutians is influenced by a ridge
extending from a North Pacific high pressure located near 46N
174W. This is producing a westerly flow with widespread marine
layer stratus accompanied by fog. While the northern/eastern
Bering has a front tracking eastward as it continues to push
inland over the Southwest Alaska region this evening. While
upstream a 1005 mb North Pacific low tracks just southwest of
Shemya by Tuesday morning. The associated front will enter the
Western Aleutians during the same time-frame bringing a large
swath of rain with gusty southerly winds. This system tracks into
the western Bering by late Tuesday night with the winds shifting
more southwesterly through the Central Aleutians, and the Bering
Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term will first be characterized by high pressure over
the Gulf that will extend over Southcentral Alaska and troughing
to the west that will bring rain to the Eastern Aleutians and
Southwest Alaska. This pattern will hold into the weekend but on
Sunday the pattern will shift with a low moving south of the Gulf
and ridging building in over the Bering and Aleutians. This will
leave southern Alaska in unstable conditions for early next week
with afternoon convection possible.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DK