Small Craft Advisory 558, NWS Anchorage, AK

225 
FZAK52 PAFC 291152
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300100-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 nm west of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A trough of low pressure along the Alaska Peninsula will move
south into the North Pacific through tonight with weak high
pressure building over the eastern Bering Sea. A front will enter
the western Bering Sea this afternoon then move toward the Bering
Strait through Sun night.

$$

PKZ150-300100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300100-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300100-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300100-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300100-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-300100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A split flow pattern has developed with an upper level ridge
centered across eastern Alaska and a trough to the south over the
gulf. To the west, zonal flow is streaming abundant moisture
between a low centered near the Bering Strait and a ridge just
south of the central Aleutians. At the surface, the pattern is a
relatively weak reflection of the pattern aloft. The most active
weather pattern is across the southwest mainland with a front
moving rain eastward into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through the weekend with handling low
pressure moving across the southeastern gulf and another across
the northern Bering. Only minor changes were needed for morning
updates as model consistency is above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR stratus is expected to continue across the terminal
through the afternoon with improvement this evening. A weak
disturbance aloft moves across this morning which will initiate a
few showers across the region, however kept this mention out of
the morning TAF as radar activity is fairly quiet and models are
showing downslope trends with light southeasterly flow just off
the surface. There is still some uncertainty in ceiling improvement
this evening as the air mass is expected to remain nearly
saturated, so this will be monitored closely for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will remain centered just north of south central
Alaska through Saturday night. Some moisture is pushing westward
underneath the ridge and will produce some showers across the area
today. Conditions will then be drier for much of the area on
Saturday as upper level heights start to build. The exception
will be inland areas from the Copper River basin and the Susitna
river valley, where increased heating will lead to diurnal showers
and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front pushing slowly eastward through Southwest AK will
continue to produce widespread rain through tonight, especially
from Greater Bristol Bay into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Rain
will taper off to showers by Saturday morning and diminish in
coverage through the day on Saturday as weak cyclonic flow is
eventually replaced by weak ridging nosing into the region from
the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through the
weekend, with generally westerly flow over the Bering on the
northern periphery of the Pacific ridge. This will mean a
continuation of the persistent fog and stratus regime over much of
the region, with multiple waves embedded in the westerly flow
bringing occasional chances for precipitation. A pair of
disturbances will move through the Bering today, spreading rain
over the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians through
tonight while a weak east-west oriented frontal boundary brings a
chance of rain to the rest of the chain. Another disturbance will
enter the northern Bering late Saturday into Sunday, bringing
another chance of rain to areas mainly north of the Pribilofs.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Saturday night through
Thursday)...
The large scale pattern remains fairly persistent through the
extended forecast period. The strong blocking ridge centered
just south of the Western Aleutians looks like it will weaken
with persistent waves riding over top of it, tracking eastward
across the Bering Sea then dropping southward into a trough over
the Gulf of Alaska/Northeast Pacific. Model guidance differs in
some of the details of individual waves, but shows the same
general idea. Thus, generally speaking expect wet conditions
across the Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska along with
continued areas of fog and stratus across the region.

Meanwhile, weak ridging will persist in the vicinity of
Southcentral. A steady stream of upper waves will pass in the
vicinity of Southcentral, but forcing looks weak. The lack of
strong forcing or strong flow creates quite a challenging
forecast. At this time scale it's nearly impossible to forecast
the details of what any given day will be like in Southcentral.
Overall, we can say there will be a lot of "fair" days; not wet
or dry, not hot or cold, not cloudy or sunny - but somewhere in
between these dichotomies. There are indications the ridge will
break down late next week, with potential for storms to approach
Southcentral from both the west and south.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...SEB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
854 AM AKDT Fri Jul 28 2017

AKZ141-301700-
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson,
and Slana
854 AM AKDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...High water on Tazlina Lake and Tazlina River...

A pilot report indicated that a glacier dammed lake on Nelchina Glacier had
emptied as of Wednesday night 7/26. Water levels on the Nelchina River are high
but should be dropping over the next few days. Water levels on Tazlina Lake and
Tazlina River are rising and are expected to remain high through next Tuesday.
Typically levels will rise 2 to 3 feet when this release occurs and crest in
1 to 3 days.

Water levels on the Tazlina River are rising as the water moves through Tazlina
Lake. At the Richardson Highway gage, the Tazlina River is
expected to crest sunday below 30.0 ft. Minor flood stage is at
31.0 ft.

Rises in water levels are possible on the Tazlina Lake and Tazlina River
including the area around the Richardson Highway bridge.
All persons with interests near the rivers or lake should monitor the water
levels over the next several days.