Small Craft Advisory 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

879 
FZAK51 PAFC 241203
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250045-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will persist through Wed morning. Lower pressure 
inland will lead to stronger winds in Cook Inlet through Mon.

$$

PKZ119-250045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250045-
Resurrection Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY... S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250045-
Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250045-
Port Valdez-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250045-
Valdez Narrows-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250045-
Valdez Arm-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250045-
Passage Canal-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250045-
Barren Islands East-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250045-
Chiniak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250045-
Marmot Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250045-
Shelikof Strait-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Areas of fog.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250045-
Kachemak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Areas of fog.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Mostly clear skies prevail across Southcentral Alaska this morning
beneath an east-west oriented ridge axis that extends from the
Western Aleutians across the southern mainland and into the Yukon.
Widespread fog and stratus continue to dominate a wide swath of
the Bering Sea beneath the ridge. Fog has also spread into much of
the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions overnight as a result
of persistent onshore flow along the southwest coast. Farther to
the north, the first indications of an eventual pattern change are
beginning to take shape as a shortwave trough begins to push
across the northern half of the state embedded in fast zonal
flow. An associated front trailing southwestward from this
feature into the northern Bering is poised to bring a return of
precipitation to parts of the Bering and southwest mainland later
today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the beginning of the week
as the ridge continues to flatten out and sink southward. This
will allow a more progressive zonal flow pattern to become
established over much of the state, with numerous embedded waves
bringing increased chances for precipitation as the work week
begins. Continued to heavily utilize Hi-Res NAM guidance in the
short term given the consistently strong model agreement in recent
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds
will increase out of the southeast and eventually become gusty through
early afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient.
Winds will likely peak during the late afternoon and evening hours
due to surface heating in the southern Susitna Valley, however
southeast winds are expected to persist through Sunday night into
Monday morning as the gradient remains favorable.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Another pleasant summer day with warm temperatures is expected
across the majority of Southcentral today as an upper level ridge
pushes eastward. While this ridge will keep a low in the Gulf of
Alaska well to the south of the Alaska mainland, an approaching front
will bring rain to the northern Susitna Valley by this evening.
In response to the approaching front, winds will switch to
southerly across the Cook Inlet and become gusty by the evening.
This low level upslope flow will likely help to enhance rain along
the Alaska Range this evening. Unsettled weather conditions will
become more widespread by Monday as a more potent upper level wave
pushes across the region, and cooler air aloft moves into the
region. However, rainfall is expected to be mostly along the
mountains throughout the day Monday, with just a chance at lower
elevations. Temperatures will be cooler across the region Monday
with widespread cloud cover and rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The Southwest Alaska region continues to be dominated by a ridge
of high pressure, but upstream a weather front is tracking from
west to east across the Bering Sea. This frontal boundary looks to
approach the Kuskokwim Delta this morning before entering the
Bristol Bay area by Monday time-frame. Meanwhile, the other
weather phenomena occurring is the marine layer stratus
accompanied by fog. The Nighttime Microphysics Satellite imagery
is showing widespread fog along the Eastern Aleutians extending
into the Bristol Bay area, and along the Alaska Peninsula
coastline this morning. While the surface observations along the
aforementioned areas are reporting areas of fog with visibilities
ranging from 1/2 mile to 1 mile. While the Kuskokwim Delta region
has stratus with dense fog, and visibilities one quarter mile or
less at times as well this morning aided by the continued onshore
flow. Look for the weather front to push into the Kuskokwim Delta
by Sunday afternoon bringing widespread rain to the region before
exiting eastward into Bristol Bay, and the Alaska Peninsula by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
An upper level positive tilted ridge extends from a closed high
pressure near 44N 170E through the Western Aleutians into the
Southwest Alaska region. There is widespread marine layer stratus
with areas of dense fog. The surface observations are reflecting
this with observations at Shemya reporting visibilities at 1/4 nm
or less with overcast ceilings at LIFR conditions this morning.
Meanwhile, just to the west of the Bering Sea there is an upper
level trough. This is reflected at the surface with a weather
front entering the northern to western Bering this early morning
today. This brings a swath of rain which spreads from west to east
across the Bering. The amplified ridge will slow down the front,
and this synoptic feature enters the eastern Bering by Monday
morning. The wind flow remains predominantly westerly for the
Bering Sea/Aleutians as we head into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long term period will be very dynamic and progressive. Several
systems will move into the state from the Arctic and the Bering.
With this active pattern in place, expect the ridging over the
Aleutians to get shunted to the west and eventually south.
Sensible weather-wise, anticipate an uptick in precipitation for
the western and south central portions of the state Tuesday night
through Saturday. All the while, the western Aleutians will
be under the influence of the ridge keeping much of the western Bering
dry, however low clouds and fog will persist under the stable air
mass. The ECMWF...Canadian GEM and GFS models are in relatively
decent agreement with the shift towards a wet dynamic synoptic
pattern through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...PJS