Small Craft Advisory 526, NWS Anchorage, AK

667 
FZAK52 PAFC 121248 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130315-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 nm west of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 995 mb low 200 nm South of Attu becomes a trough over the Western 
Bering by Fri morning. The associated front moves over the Alaska 
Peninsula through Fri morning. A North Pacific low moves to 200 nm 
Southwest of Kiska at 1009 mb for Fri morning. A 1013 mb low forms 40
nm North of St Matthew Island Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-130315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130315-
Bristol Bay-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130315-
Unalaska Bay-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130315-
Adak to Kiska-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130315-
Kiska to Attu-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-130315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
448 AM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

691 
FZAK52 PAFC 122324
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131215-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 nm west of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 1000 mb low 100 nm southwest of Shemya dissipates into a trough
over the northern Bering by Fri morning before dissipating. A low
drops down off the Kamchatka Peninsula 310 nm northwest of Shemya
at 998 mb Fri morning moves 310 nm northwest of Shemya at 999 mb 
Sat morning with an associated front entering the Western 
Aleutians. 

$$

PKZ150-131215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131215-
Bristol Bay-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131215-
Unalaska Bay-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Areas of
fog.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131215-
Adak to Kiska-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131215-
Kiska to Attu-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt except S 15 KT SW of Nunivak Island. Seas 3 
ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 15 kt except S 15 KT SW of Nunivak Island. Seas 3 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
909 PM AKDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Updated for extended discussion...

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
In the upper levels, a low over the Yukon Territory and a low over
the Gulf of Alaska are slowly moving eastward while a high builds
over the mainland from the North Slope. This is bringing broad
easterly flow in the upper levels, with a couple of shortwaves
that caused some weather over the mainland this morning. First
would be the the shortwave moving through Southcentral and the
Copper River Basin, which is evident on satellite with the thick
layer of clouds moving into the area. This shortwave is not
particularly dynamic, so although a few showers have been spotted
around the area overnight and this morning, they have not lasted
long or produced copious amounts of precipitation. This morning,
weak offshore winds were still continuing around Southcentral,
with the highest winds around Seward as the trough approaches. A
second shortwave moving over the western mainland brought some
low clouds to the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, but quickly
cleared off into a nice day.

Meanwhile further out west, a ridge is building aloft over the
Central Aleutians. This is bringing the usual summertime marine
stratus problems to the eastern Bering, while a front moving into
the western Aleutians is bringing some unusual thunderstorms to
the far western marine zones.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have been demonstrating good consistency, both between
models and run-to-run. Challenges will lie with temperatures In
the east NAM/NAM Nest was used for greater detail, in particular
with outflow winds. GFS was preferred for the western side.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

While clouds have dominated much of Southcentral today and
temperatures have remained cooler than expected, broad clearing
this afternoon is indicating a pattern change. Warm temperatures
and dry conditions will dominate over the next several days as an
upper ridge builds in from the west, and temperatures will soar
into the upper 70s and into the lower 80s across the Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin. Models indicate the ridge will
prevent any widespread convection on Wednesday, and any showers
are expected to be isolated and along the mountains. By Thursday
afternoon, a weak upper level wave will move from east to west,
and increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Models are
now indicating more available moisture than in previous runs,
which increases the chance for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. It is currently uncertain whether thunderstorms
will reach Anchorage Thursday, but models are trending towards a
greater chance of storms developing along the Chugach.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure is moving into the area and will produce sunshine
and likely the hottest temperatures of the summer so far,
especially for the inland areas, over the next few days. Offshore
flow on Wednesday should prevent sea breezes from forming strongly
around the Bristol Bay region, so even coastal locations should
see some very mild temperatures. The flow will be a bit more
northwesterly over the Kuskokwim Delta, however, which means low
clouds from the Bering Sea do have a small chance of sneaking into
the area around Bethel and busting the warm and sunny day on
Wednesday, but at this point that seems unlikely. By Thursday, a
weak disturbance moving down from the north will clip the far
eastern portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, bringing the
chance for some afternoon and evening thunderstorms in that area.
For Friday and Saturday a front approaches from the Bering and
brings a return to cooler and cloudier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Widespread low-clouds and fog continue across the western 2/3 of
the area. A low with associated weather front is tracking into the
far western Aleutians this afternoon, but will be weakening
quickly over the next 24-36 hours. Despite some mixing of the
atmosphere associated with this front, it is having a hard time
mixing out the fog at Shemya, so this weather feature does not
look particularly impressive. The remnants of this front will
slowly move across the Bering Sea over the next few days, bringing
a chance for showers but overall a continuation of fairly benign
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...
The long term continues to feature a fair amount of ridging across
much of the mainland. But the big trend is towards weaker ridging
with better potential for some showers, clouds, and cooler
temperatures. Friday will start with a decaying front approaching
the West Coast and leftover convection rolling through
Southcentral. This will bring increased chances of rain to both
these locations, especially early in the day. Clouds could
definitely linger around much of the Cook Inlet on Fri making it a
very warm and muggy day. Into the weekend, the trend has been to
allow more energy coming around the low in the Northern Gulf of
AK to push further west over the Kenai Peninsula. This could allow
for another round of convection to develop during the afternoon
and evening from the AK Range back through the Copper River Basin.
Out west, another trough follows in the track of the first front,
yet it has a better chance of pushing inland. Thus, expect
widespread light rain and cooler temperatures for SW AK into Sun.
The ridge tries to rebound on Sun, but it is once again only a
shortwave feature. So it could make for a dry day for most
locations from the Cook Inlet east, it will not be long lived.

Then further out, models continue to struggle mightily with
energy over the Bering and how it interacts with the remnants of
the ridge of AK. The GFS and EC keep waffling in how strong the
energy is and how far east it pushes. For now, it appears the
ridge may hang on through at least early Tue. But for this
package, have made few changes to the broad brushed forecast
approach of a chance for rain and temperatures generally near
normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...MSO