Small Craft Advisory 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

422 
FZAK52 PAFC 071138
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080015-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 NM West of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 987 mb low 160 nm southwest of Shemya moves 60 nm north of Adak
at 992 mb Sat morning before moving 50 nm southeast of Saint Paul
Island at 1001 by Sun morning. An associated front over the Western
Bering/Aleutians extends through the Central Aleutians Fri morning
moves to the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Sat evening.

$$

PKZ150-080015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E in
the evening. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080015-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E in the
evening. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080015-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080015-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080015-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080015-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

611 
FZAK52 PAFC 072309
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081215-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 nm west of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 988 mb low 70 nm south of Kiska will gradually weaken to 1001 
mb as it tracks to 150 nm north of Dutch Harbor by Sun afternoon.
An associated front will persist over the eastern Bering and 
Alaska Peninsula through late Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-081215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081215-
Bristol Bay-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081215-
Unalaska Bay-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 fwt. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.w
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081215-
Adak to Kiska-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 13 ft. 
Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081215-
Kiska to Attu-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Interior upper level ridging stretching from the Alaska Peninsula
to the Yukon is dominating the sensible weather across Southern
Alaska this morning. Over the North Pacific and stretching north
toward the Gulf of Alaska is a broad closed low. Over the Eastern
Bering Sea, there is a stalled warm front associated with two
separate closed upper lows, one over the Central Bering Sea with
the other moving through the Bering Strait. Over the far Western
Aleutians the next upper level low is deepening as it is phasing
with a strong low level diabatic anomaly (associated with the
subtropical moisture stream). In the low levels, the pressure
gradient is rather weak along the coast with only a weak interior
thermal trough. The strongest gradient is along the Southwest
Alaska coast where the stalled front is supporting southeast winds
into the 25 knot range.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
synoptic pattern, and are now locking on to a strong easterly wave
moving into Southcentral late today into Saturday morning from
the Yukon. This pattern will be driven heavily by convective
forcing, and exactly how the convective elements eventually form
into a low is always a bit uncertain. This is where the highest
uncertainty lies, but for now, a general consensus among all the
models was favored. This takes a bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms and moves them across the Copper Basin this
afternoon and evening, then into the Susitna Valley and Matanuska
Valley overnight. The southern edge may clip Anchorage, but there
is quite a bit of uncertainty there. Elsewhere, confidence is
high with a preference toward higher resolution guidance for
details in the wind fields.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Expect VFR conditions today as the marine stratus that
rolled in last night is not expected to move in today given the
drier conditions. SOutheast Turnagain Arm winds are expected to
move into the terminal in the early evening then diminish
overnight. Shower threats will increase during the overnight, but
currently CIGS should remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level high pressure over southern Alaska will drift north
and east through Friday afternoon, while the upper low situated
to the south of the Gulf will slowly drift north. This will
increase the easterly flow over the area. Convection will be
somewhat limited this evening due to the ridge and the limited
heating due to morning clouds. On Thursday there will be more
showers and thunderstorms, as the ridge retreats and the easterly
flow increases. Some of these could drift off the mountains and
into the valleys, especially north of Anchorage. There will still
be some showers around on Friday, but with the proximity of the
upper low now in the Gulf, the atmosphere will be less unstable
and thunderstorms will be limited to the Talkeetnas and Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the area will produce one more day of sunny
skies and warm temperatures before clouds begin to increase ahead
of an easterly wave on Friday. The only chance for showers today
will be from weak convection that will develop along the Alaska
Range, however based on the lack of significant convection on
Wednesday the chance for thunderstorms in this area was removed
through Friday. Increasing clouds, a chance of showers and cooler
temperatures will then move in on Friday as an easterly wave
begins to move in from the Gulf. This wave will bring a chance of
showers throughout the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta, including to
lower elevations. An approaching trough from the Bering will then
keep cooler weather with a chance of rain in the forecast into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Active weather will continue through Friday as a series of low
move through the region. The first low will continue slowly
dissipating over the central Bering today before becoming absorbed
into a slightly stronger low beginning to enter the western
Aleutians. This low help will force much of the low stratus/fog
and has developed over the Bering northward, and instead spread
rain to many areas through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period on Saturday, there will be a low
over the southern Bering Sea with another low over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska. This will be another "easterly wave" pattern with
a stout easterly wave moving in from the Yukon Saturday. It should
move from the Copper Basin east, and currently looks to bring
rather widespread rain across all of Southcentral. With time, the
Bering trough will shift east toward Bristol Bay by Sunday evening
and will begin to interact with the low in the Gulf of Alaska.
Rain and showers will remain likely across much of Southern Alaska
into Tuesday.

Thereafter, a potential significant shift in the upper air pattern
will commence as the Gulf low shifts south and east while ridging
over the Bering Sea builds inland. This will set in motion an
offshore flow pattern across Alaska, and should this happen like
some of the deterministic models, would support 850 hpa
temperatures in excess of 12-15 C by Wednesday. Ensemble guidance
also supports increased ridging as the Gulf low departs, but as
always, some uncertainty exists this far out. For now, the
potential exists for a serious warm-up and drying period mid to
late next week. Stay tuned...

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...Ahsenmacher