Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

603 
FZAK51 PAFC 042358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051300-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure lingers over the northern Gulf Coast and 
Southeastern Alaska through Tuesday. A 985 mb low will track to 
350 NM southeast of Kodiak Monday morning then to 320 NM south of
Kodiak at 988 mb by Tuesday evening.

$$

PKZ119-051300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051300-
Resurrection Bay-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and
seas S of Caines Head.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher winds and seas S of 
Caines Head. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051300-
Prince William Sound-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Highest winds and seas S of Seal Island. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051300-
Port Valdez-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051300-
Valdez Narrows-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051300-
Valdez Arm-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051300-
Passage Canal-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051300-
Barren Islands East-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051300-
Chiniak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051300-
Marmot Bay-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051300-
Shelikof Strait-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051300-
Kachemak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Satellite imagery indicates a wide swath of stratus and fog
across the Bristol Bay area and into the Kuskokwim Valley that has
gradually eroded this morning due to diurnal heating and mixing.
Meanwhile in Southcentral a stubborn stratus and fog layer has
lingered over much of Cook Inlet, however diurnal heating is
beginning to mix out this stable layer as well. The Anchorage
sounding this morning is convectively favorable with steep lapse
rates through much of the troposphere and a fairly moist
atmosphere. Already convection is beginning to fire off across the
western half of the Copper River Basin, indicating that the
atmosphere is favorable for convection in areas of steep terrain. Currently,
radar and satellite imagery show showers developing along the
foothills of the Alaska Range and the Kilbuck Mountains around
Aniak, with a few lightning strikes showing up as well.

Two upper level lows dominate the synoptic map this morning, with
one low in the southeast Gulf, and another just south of the
eastern Bering. A ridge covers the Alaska mainland. With no strong
upper level forcing, the convection across both Southcentral and
Southwest mainland areas will be heavily dependent on diurnal
forcing and form mainly along the mountains. While the steering
flow is from the west and would favor for showers to drift off the
mountains, with no upper level support in place, showers will
likely weaken as they drift away towards the valleys and more
populated areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement in the short term
synoptically as the upper level low south of the Bering gradually
drifts to the east, and the southeast Gulf of Alaska low
gradually weakens and then is pushed towards the north gulf coast.
Models disagree much more strongly on the intensity of shower
development and convective indices such as CAPE, with the NAM
favoring much higher values consistently. As a result, a middle
ground approach was chosen.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Showers will
form along the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An easterly wave currently pushing from the Yukon Territory into
the eastern Copper River Basin will spread rain to that area with
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms further west. The
strongest instability looks to be centered over the Talkeetna
Mountains and north and eastern Copper Basin, however isolated
thunderstorms are also possible along the Kenai Mountains and
Alaska Range. A similarly unstable pattern will develop again
Sunday afternoon and evening as another easterly wave moves
through bringing more showers and thunderstorms before conditions
stabilize early next week.

A gale force frontal system will lift northwest across the Gulf
on Monday reaching the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Another
frontal wave will lift from the eastern Gulf to northern Gulf
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

No major change in the overall pattern as high pressure building
in from the East continues to promote warm summer-like weather
over most of Southwest Alaska for the next couple of days. Strong
surface heating, with interior locations warming up well into the
70's, will lead to instability in the afternoon hours with pop-up
showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible over the higher
terrain. A weak pulse of energy rotating around the base of the
ridge will provide some forcing and moisture to increase chances
and coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon,
which will be focused along the Alaska Range and North through
the middle Kuskokwim Valley. Upper level steering flow from the
East will may push these storms West over the Kuskokwim Valley
Sunday evening.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis moves to the West and moisture wrapping
along the top of a low in the Gulf will lead to increased cloud
cover and continued chances of showers along the mountains and
foothills, though thunderstorm development will be limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The primary concern for the Aleutians will be a low pressure
system tracking South of the island chain, bringing soaking rains
and gale force winds out ahead of the center to places like Dutch
Harbor, Cold Bay, and Sand Point overnight. The low weakens and
shifts off to the Southeast by Sunday evening with a ridge of high
pressure building in behind it. The next system moves East over
the Western Aleutians by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northwest Alaska with a relatively stationary low south of the
Gulf of Alaska. An elongated area of low pressure will be over the
far western Bering and that low will consolidate and track east
staying just south of the Aleutians through the week. The main
high and low will mostly stay in place into late next week
bringing moist, southeast flow to the southern mainland. Most of
the rain will stay along the coast with afternoon showers for
inland locations. On Thursday this pattern will break down making
way for the western low to move near the Alaska Peninsula Friday.
However, there is disagreement with where this low will end up
with some models bringing it north towards Bristol Bay and others
pushing it off into the North Pacific.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 150, 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KWV
LONG TERM...DK