Small Craft Advisory 423, NWS Anchorage, AK

420 
FZAK52 PAFC 271201
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280100-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS ACTIVE.

A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WEAK 
LOWS WILL DISSIPATE SUN. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC 
LOW WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM 
THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-280100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-280100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-280100-
BRISTOL BAY-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-280100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-280100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-280100-
UNALASKA BAY-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-280100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-280100-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-280100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-280100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY 
FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-280100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY 
FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-280100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-280100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-280100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-280100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-280100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-280100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
401 AM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

446 
FZAK52 PAFC 280001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281315-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS ACTIVE.

A 1006 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTH OF PORT MOLLER SAT AFTERNOON MOVES 
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MOLLER AT 1005 MB SUN MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUN AFTERNOON. A 991 MB 
LOW 200 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON MOVES 100 NM NORTH OF 
KISKA ISLAND AT 991 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MOVES 50 NM 
NORTHEAST OF KISKA ISLAND AT 994 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN MOVES 110 
NM EAST OF KISKA ISLAND AT 996 MB TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-281315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-281315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-281315-
BRISTOL BAY-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-281315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-281315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281315-
UNALASKA BAY-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-281315-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-281315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-281315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-281315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-281315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-281315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-281315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-281315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
401 PM AKDT SAT MAY 27 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
912 AM AKDT Fri May 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough remains over the majority of the AOR,
with some ridging building over the far western Bering, and
another ridge ahead of the trough over the pacific Northwest. The
trough remains evident on IR satellite imagery, with the clearing
line transiting further east over the Yakutat area. A few
lingering showers continue to tapper off over some of the
mountains along the northern Gulf coast, Alaska range, and
Talkeetna mountains. Further west, a surface low just south of
Cold Bay continues to bring some rain and gusty winds to the
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall model guidance seems to be in good synoptic agreement
with each other. Larger differences start to occur as we move
into the weekend, and watch the evolution of a strong wave moving
out of the Bering. American models seems to be charging the way
with regards to this feature, both faster and deeper than the
Canadian and European solutions. By Sunday afternoon, model spread
increases both at the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere,
decreasing overall confidence as we go into the holiday weekend
and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through this afternoon
and evening. Some showers are possible again this afternoon and
evening as well, but VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Clouds and showers will be on the increase yet again today as a
weak short- wave moves up from the Gulf. However, the flow will be
different than yesterday, with southerly flow this morning
backing toward the southeast in the afternoon. The areas most
likely to see showers will be from Western Prince William Sound
across the Kenai Peninsula to the Western Susitna Valley, with
isolated to scattered showers across the remainder of the region.
Also, upper level temperatures will gradually warm so the
atmosphere will not be as unstable as Friday, though still
unstable enough to produce some locally heavy rainfall.

Attention will then shift to a low pressure system south of the
Alaska Peninsula. An upper level short-wave dropping southeastward
across the eastern Bering Sea today will re-invigorate this low
as it continues south of the Alaska Peninsula tonight, amplifying
the flow. This will spread rain northward from Kodiak Island to
the north Gulf coast tonight through Saturday. Flow will shift
solidly to southeast leading to downslope drying in the lee of the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Thus, the bulk of rain will be
confined to the coast along with upslope areas along the west side
of Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. Even if it stays dry inland
cloud cover will be fairly extensive, so temperatures will remain
on the cool side.

Looking to Sunday, the upper trough will evolve into a closed low
and lift northward into Southwest Alaska. Depending on the exact
track (and direction of flow over Southcentral), there is
potential for rain to spread inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southwest Alaska will remain in a generally troughy pattern for
the next several days bringing a continuation of the present cool
showery weather pattern. While the trough that moved through
yesterday is now clear of the area allowing showers to weaken
somewhat and become less frequent, a surface low south of the
Alaska Peninsula and tracking east will spread additional moisture
north into Southwest Alaska. Showers will reintensify and
increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as solar heating
aids instability. A trough associated with the surface low will
rotate across Bristol Bay this evening and extend north into
Southwest Alaska where it will remain stalled tonight through
Saturday. The surface low will begin drifting slowly north
Saturday night to move into Southwest Alaska on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low currently south of the western tip of the Alaska
Peninsula will continue east then stall over the southwestern
Gulf. A flat ridge bringing low stratus and patchy fog will
progress from the western Aleutians/Bering east to the central
Aleutian/Bering tonight and to the eastern Aleutians amplifying
northwest across the Pribilof Islands Saturday and Saturday Night.
The next frontal system will reach the western Aleutians late and
continue east to the central Aleutians Saturday night where it
will stall through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast begins on Monday with the cut off low that
is poised to develop near Kodiak Island this weekend lifting
northward through western Alaska. This will occur as part of an
amplification of the large scale pattern over the course of the
next week, with a sprawling longwave trough encompassing the
Bering Sea and western mainland as a stout ridge builds over
western Canada. Forecast confidence remains lower than normal as
models continue to diverge on the smaller scale details, but this
synoptic pattern will generally result in continued cloudy and
showery conditions across the southern mainland as broad onshore
flow remains focused along the gulf coast between the large scale
features. Benign showery conditions can also be expected over much
of the Bering beneath the upper trough. Temperatures will
gradually climb back to around normal through the week as the cut
off low departs into the arctic at the beginning of the week and
scours out what remains of the colder air aloft.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...CB