Small Craft Advisory 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

126 
FZAK51 PAFC 242330
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251245-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE 
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI. 

$$

PKZ119-251245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 
FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
MARMOT BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKDT Wed May 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Looking at the latest IR image on GOES-15...the cloud shield from
this mature low is already as far inland as Denali National Park
with a cold front bisecting the AK Peninsula and a low anchoring
the occlusion near St Lawrence Island. The Bering Sea is flush
with cold air stratocumulus. The most recent ASCAT data really
captures the changes in the wind field for a portion of the cold
front south of the Aleutians. This system is tracking eastward as
advertised.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement with the major synoptic features
at 500 mb through Saturday. The highlights include broad troughing
over the Bering and into the Aleutians...a ridge axis into SE AK
and widespread southwest flow into southcentral Alaska. Several
shortwaves on the backside of the trough enter the domain but the
timing and the amplitude varies with these smaller features. Still
waiting for the details to flesh out for this weekend but
generally expecting cool and wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The latest image from the Kenai radar clearly depicts
several bands of precipitation and the latest metar at PANC has
-RA in the observation. Expect reduced cigs and precipitation for
 the ensuing 36 hr period as the frontal boundary passes through
 the region. Additional impacts from this storm include gusty
 winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain will overspread most of Southcentral this morning as a high
amplitude upper level trough and surface cold front approaches
from the west. Strong and moist southerly flow will lead to
heavier precipitation along the south sides of mountain ranges as
well as across the Susitna Valley. A shallow layer of southeasterly
flow along the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains will keep
rainfall a little lighter near the mountains, with marginally
higher rainfall amounts expected near the Inlet. The Copper River
Basin and northern half of Kodiak Island will remain notable drier
with this system due to downslope flow.

A short-wave moving through the larger trough will quickly track
northward into Interior Alaska tonight, helping to drive the
trough and surface front eastward. This will bring a quick end to
rain tonight for all but the upslope areas along the Alaska Range
and eastern Prince William Sound. While wetting rains are still
expected, rainfall totals will not be as high as first thought a
few days ago when it looked like a slower progression of the
upper levels.

Another potent upper level low and short-wave moving through the
long-wave trough will then move to Southcentral on Thursday. With
500mb temperatures dropping to -35 degrees Celsius or colder mid
level lapse rates will rapidly steepen. When combined with
impressive dynamical lift and strong south to southwest winds,
conditions look favorable for heavy showers, particularly along
the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains. Have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas and others nearby.
Meanwhile, low level cold advection will cause snow levels to drop
to 2000 feet or lower by Thursday night. Showers will be tapering
off overnight, but there is potential for snow accumulation on
area mountains before showers end.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system stretched across Southwest Alaska and the
Alaska Peninsula this morning will swing east through the day,
shifting the areas of heavier rain to the west slopes of the
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. An unseasonably cold upper level
trough behind the frontal system will swing onshore this afternoon
and evening, bringing the potential for isolated thunderstorms and
then changing the precipitation type over to snow showers
overnight. A deeper secondary trough will rotate onshore over the
Kuskokwim Delta early Thursday morning and continue across
southwest Alaska through the day Thursday. This trough will both
increase shower coverage again and bring a good potential for
thunderstorms to the Kuskokwim Valley Thursday afternoon and
evening. Showers will taper off to a more scattered coverage
Thursday night through Friday as the parent upper low weakens
somewhat and drifts north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The large vertically stacked low centered over the northern Bering
will open to a trough which will reach the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
tonight. The main upper low center will shift north to become
vertically stacked with a surface low just north of the Bering
Strait Thursday morning. The entire low complex will then
gradually drift further north through Friday. To the south, a
surface low will approach the western Aleutians this evening will
continue east along the chain to reach the eastern Aleutian
Thursday night and the Alaska Peninsula Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The very cold upper level low over the state will continue to be
the major story into the weekend. Snow levels will gradually rise
but the cold temperatures aloft will keep conditions conducive for
periods of showers over the majority of the region. A cutoff low
will develop from the main upper level low on Sunday and remain
over Kodiak Island as the main low finally lifts back into the
Arctic.

After this the uncertainty really increases as model spread
dramatically increases for the operational runs. The model
ensembles are indicating the next surface low will scoot just a
little south of the Aleutians but that solution is far from
certain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...EZ