Small Craft Advisory 409, NWS Anchorage, AK

817 
FZAK51 PAFC 221139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230045-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON AND DISSIPATE MON 
NIGHT. A 1011 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND NORTH OF HAIDA 
GWAII AT 1009 MB TUE MORNING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 
WESTERN GULF BY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-230045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230045-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230045-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230045-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230045-
MARMOT BAY-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

222 
FZAK51 PAFC 222330
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231200-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1009 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND 
NORTH OF HAIDA GWAII TUE MORNING AT 1009 MB. A FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED.

$$

PKZ119-231200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231200-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231200-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231200-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231200-
MARMOT BAY-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT MON MAY 22 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Sun May 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A highly amplified pattern has developed. Widespread cyclonic
flow will continue to influence the region...sustaining a
disturbance over the Alaska Peninsula and another across the North
Pacific. Ahead of these features is robust southeast flow. The
most notable area of moisture flux is across Southeast Alaska
where an atmospheric river has set up.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All of the deterministic models depict a highly dynamic pattern
almost reminiscent of a winter type pattern. The GFS and the
ECMWF are in good agreement and appear to be in sync with the
prominent features through Thursday. Of note, the RMOP or
Relative Measure Of Predictability for the GFS ensemble mean is in
low confidence territory with the trough at 500 MB and the low
that enters the Bering later in the forecast period. Expect more
fine tuning of the forecast package with each issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally expecting VFR conditions this morning. By 18z
light showers will move into the area. Cigs will drop later in the
day possibly reaching 030 by 3z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A couple days of steadier light rain is in store for most places.
A very winter-like pattern is setting up, despite the lack of cold
air. A low pressure system is backing into the area from the east
as a deformation zone/warm front forces a rain shield from east to
west across the area. Light rain will spread from western Prince
William Sound across the Chugach into the Cook Inlet region today.
While the deformation band will move over the Kenai Peninsula and
park itself late this morning, the Anchorage area should see a
short break in the rain before the next front moves overhead this
afternoon and evening. Though, some light rain should make it over
the mountains, especially for east Anchorage and the Hillside.

Steady rain will envelop the north gulf coast for most of the next
24 hours. Late tonight into Monday, the system pushes inland
leaving a showery regime in place, mostly along the coast.
Turnagain Arm convergence looks to play a role in convection
around the Anchorage Bowl while standard afternoon showers off of
the mountains are in store elsewhere to the north. Tuesday begins
a short dry period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
As an upper level wave pushes through the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
this afternoon there is potential for isolated thunderstorms to
develop in a corridor from the Lower Kuskokwim Valley towards
Bristol Bay. Otherwise, showers are expected across southwest
Alaska this afternoon/evening. Overnight, a dissipating front
will push in from the Bering bringing light, widespread rain. The
rain will then gradually diminish during the day Monday before a
stronger system pushes in late Monday night bringing heavier rain
to southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The front over the central Bering and Aleutians will continue to
track east making it to the Eastern Aleutians late this morning
and over southwest Alaska tonight. Weak ridging will follow behind
the front bringing a brief reprieve to the rain before a stronger
system moves in over the Central Aleutians Monday
afternoon/evening. This system will make it to the eastern Bering
Monday night. It will leave behind weak westerly flow and light
rain showers over the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...An amplifying trough
over the Bering Sea will bring a wet and windy period of weather
to Southwest Alaska starting late Tuesday morning. Models have
been slowly coming into better agreement bringing an unseasonably
moist airmass (based on progged PWAT values) to mainland Alaska.
Very impressive jet dynamics along the west side of the trough
will act as a lifting mechanism which will create some very
favorable rain processes. While rainfall amounts vary from model
to model, it looks quite likely that coastal locations of
Southwest Alaska could see over an inch of rain while inland
locations could see a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an
inch.

One of the biggest struggles in the extended forecast is just how
far east the rainfall makes it. Latest model runs suggest a
further eastward track which would allow Southcentral Alaska to be
impacted by the southwesterly flow aloft. This would allow
rainfall to begin possibly as early as Wednesday morning and
persist through Friday. However, it appears that this wet pattern
will begin to dissipate during the Memorial Day weekend, as models
are now in quite good agreement with bringing a ridge of high
pressure over the Northern gulf from Pacific Northwest coast.
This would potentially bring warmer and drier conditions to
Southcentral Alaska over the weekend and into Monday. The big
question is: will the rain end on Saturday or on Sunday? Stay
tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MC/TP