Small Craft Advisory 398, NWS Anchorage, AK

280 
FZAK52 PAFC 191104
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-192330-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW 440 NM SOUTH OF ADAK MOVES 580 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 986 MB SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL 
BERING SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN BERING SAT MORNING. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SAT MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO NORTHERN/EASTERN
BERING BY SAT AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-192330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-192330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-192330-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-192330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-192330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-192330-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-192330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-192330-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-192330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-192330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-192330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-192330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-192330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-192330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-192330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-192330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-192330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND, VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND, E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 AM AKDT Thu May 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The regional pattern across Southern Alaska continues to be
dominated by a North Pacific upper low centered south of the
Alaska Peninsula. Energetic shortwaves ejecting off the parent
upper low move toward the North Gulf Coast, with one of those
waves of energy currently slowly moving north along the Western
Alaska Range. This is bringing light rain to most of western
Southcentral Alaska including the Anchorage Bowl, the Matanuska
and Susitna Valleys, and the Western Kenai Peninsula. There is a
secondary shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of the
parent trough moving north towards Kodiak Island this morning.
This shortwave is working a low level occluded front, so there is
not much baroclinic energy for this system to process. Over the
Bering there is broad cyclonic flow with widespread areas of low
stratus and patchy fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in good agreement with the general pattern for the
next four days, but they are in lesser agreement with the
precipitation patterns across inland areas as well as the track of
a shortwave trough moving north from Kodiak Island Friday night.
For this forecast package, the GFS was favored as it maintains
overall consistency with the broader overall pattern and wind
fields.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist, however, light rain showers
this morning will at times push CIGS below 5000 feet through the
late morning. Gradually CIGS should raise back above 5000 feet as
Turnagain winds increase in the late afternoon. These southeast
winds will be weaker than the last two days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The cloudy and showery flow pattern will continue through late
Friday. One upper level system exits, another enters. Lingering
convective showers are affecting the Cook Inlet region and will
continue to be the case today. There will be a period of shortwave
ridging which should make for a period of dry conditions in the
Anchorage area. However, by the evening hours another north
Pacific disturbance is already moving in on the north Gulf coast,
where steady showers will be the norm in the short term. Other
than that, diurnal showers off of the mountains will be the
predominant forecast for the next couple days. Ridging along the
Gulf coast will promote Turnagain wind, pulsing into the Anchorage
Bowl in the afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A low
south of the Alaska Peninsula will slowly track north towards
southwest Alaska and eventually settle in over the Bristol Bay
area on Saturday. Multiple waves rotating around this low will
swing through southwest Alaska bringing cloud cover and showers to
the area into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
High pressure that is over the western Bering will remain there
through Friday before pushing east over the central Bering on
Saturday. This setup will keep light winds for central and eastern
parts of the Bering and Aleutians into the weekend with
intermittent light rain and areas of fog. Behind the high, a front
will push into the western Bering Friday night and make it to the
central Bering by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through
Wednesday)...

The extended period starts out with a highly amplified pattern in the
upper levels, which is a bit unusual for this time of year. Two dominant
blocking ridges (one just along the west coast of the Continental U.S.
and another in the Russian Arctic) will cause multiple troughs to converge
upon Alaska, resulting in active weather (aka clouds and rain) across
much of the forecast area.

More specifically, the Gulf of Alaska and southern mainland of Alaska
will be heavily influenced by deep southerly flow along the west side
of the ridge, leading to especially wet conditions along the Gulf coastal
region Saturday night through Tuesday, with clouds and showers occasionally
spreading inland to Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. There will certainly
be some breaks of sun inland, but nothing very prolonged. Thus, expect
temperatures to be near normal for this time of year.

Meanwhile, a series of troughs will cross the Bering Sea with a large
upper level low to follow. This will spread rain eastward to the
Southwest coast by late Tuesday. As the low dives southeastward
into the Pacific the front will likely stall over Southwest Alaska
and the western Gulf, so it could be two or three days of rain across
this region. Ridging out ahead of this will lead to improving conditions
over portions of Southecentral the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...SEB