Small Craft Advisory 385, NWS Anchorage, AK

777 
FZAK51 PAFC 141118
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150015-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1003 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF CHENEGA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST 
GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MON. A 
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-150015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150015-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150015-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER BY
LATE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150015-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150015-
MARMOT BAY-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT SUN MAY 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Sat May 13 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low that has been moving through the Bering is over the
eastern Bering and is continuing to track east. This low has also
been bringing rain to southwest Alaska. Ahead of the low, over
Southcentral Alaska, afternoon/evening showers have died down as
temperatures dropped overnight. Behind the Bering low another
system is approaching the Western Aleutians from the south and is
bringing more rain to the islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
On the synoptic scale, model agreement is decent. But there are
differences when looking at the mesoscale features. One problem
area is the handling of precip over Southcentral Alaska as the
eastern Bering low tracks across southwest Alaska towards the
Gulf. Guidance is struggling with both timing and intensity of the
precip, especially this afternoon into the night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Some rain will move into the
area Saturday afternoon but VFR conditions are expected through
the day Saturday. Winds should remain light and out of a south to
west direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level low along the southwest coast of Alaska this
morning will move eastward and into the Gulf of Alaska this
evening. This will bring widespread rains to the Kenai Peninsula
by noon, which will then spread northward into most of south
central Alaska during the afternoon and evening hours. Some
thunderstorms are possible over the Susitna River basin and along
the Talkeetna Mountains this afternoon and evening ahead of the
main rains, with decent dynamics and some instability. Conditions
will dry out on Sunday as the low moves into the southeastern
Gulf. Weak high pressure will build over the area Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
A front draped across the Kuskokwim Delta to Bristol Bay moves
north later today spreading rain into the Valley. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the western Alaska Range this
afternoon and evening as an upper level wave propagates northward
from the low center as it crosses Bristol Bay to the gulf.
Clearing behind this system is anticipated on Sunday with
relatively light onshore flow. Southeasterly flow re-develops on
Monday as the next low moves across the Aleutians. The front
associated with this low pushes to the southwest coast Monday
night spreading inland through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
Low pressure will be the predominant pattern through Monday night
keeping low to mid level clouds along with rain over the Bering
and Aleutians. Small craft winds are the main concerns with slightly
higher gusts around the two low pressure systems in the short
range forecast. The first impactful low, currently over the
eastern Bering, moves across Bristol Bay this afternoon into the
Gulf of Alaska tonight. The next low and associated front is
expected to be slow moving with the boundary moving across the
western and central Aleutians today, spreading slowly north and
east into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended range forecast Sunday evening, there will
be an exiting closed low tracking into the Alaska Panhandle with a
slow moving upper trough south of the Central Aleutians. With
offshore flow along the North Gulf Coast and a ridge axis
extending into Southwest Alaska, a brief break in weather will be
developing over Southern Alaska through Monday. Broad warm air
advection ahead of the next trough moving east will eventually
develop into a consolidated warm front as it lifts north toward
the Eastern Aleutians and Kodiak Island Monday night and Tuesday.
This will bring widespread rain before it begins to fall apart and
weaken Tuesday night. However, enough clouds and moisture will
move into Southern Alaska to support increasing chances for rain
and showers, but it does not look like a washout given the
weakening nature of the front, lack of deep Pacific moisture
tapping, and the displaced upper level support which will remain
over the Eastern Bering Sea and North Pacific.

By Thursday and Friday, confidence decreases regarding the details
of trough placement, but it does look like the pattern will become
typical of spring with weak upper features and stronger diurnal
convective forcing. In other words, rather typical spring pattern
with periods of sun and clouds and near if not slightly above
normal temps headed towards the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA