Small Craft Advisory 366, NWS Anchorage, AK

097 
FZAK51 PAFC 071152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080115-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES ACROSS THE 
ALASKA PENINSULA AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW AT 994 MB 195 NM
SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLS 
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE LOW PUSHES 
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES TO 370 NM 
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AT 999 MB.


$$

PKZ119-080115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
NEAR THE COAST, E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. NEAR THE COAST, E WIND 25 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES 
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080115-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080115-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080115-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080115-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Sat May 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Our attention turns to the large, complex, bulbous longwave trough
over the Bering/Aleutians/northern Pacific. The trough is the
weather over The Great Land for the short-term. It stretches from
the western Aleutians to Southcentral, and is a mature marine
occlusion. The original front, mostly washed out, stretches from
Adak to north of the Pribilof Islands and southeastward over
Kodiak Island. It is a complex low with multiple centers and
disturbances rotating around the center. However, it is not where
the action is, meteorologically speaking.

The jet stream is amplified, well south of the Aleutians, where
a shortwave trough/jet streak combo is rounding the trough. Well
away from the parent low the shortwave is riding the front and
looks to develop into another potent surface low.

Sensible weather-wise, high clouds are rolling into Southcentral
Alaska and temperatures remain in the 30's in most places. The
front is currently stalled from the southwest mainland into the
Gulf, but will be re-energized from the incoming system.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Some differences still remain with the track of the developing
frontal wave, however, there has been more consensus of wrapping
it back further to the west toward the Alaska Peninsula. Otherwise
good agreement among guidance remains for the short-term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Once again Turnagain Arm winds will remain the most
uncertain portion of the TAF. A similar scenario as the last low
pressure system exists with a strengthening gradient along the Arm
meaning the wind will be out there. The question is how much will
bend in to south/west Anchorage today. The down-Inlet gradient
will really be strengthening as the new system deepens in the
Gulf, but Susitna Valley heating should draw some of that wind
northward again. The only caveat to that is the mid-high level
clouds could hamper the magnitude of the heating. At this time it
still looks like a good slug of wind will come in before turning
back to the south toward evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
For the second time in the past week a significant storm will
impact the Gulf waters bringing gale to storm force winds and
heavy rain. The worst conditions for this storm will be over the
western Gulf and on up into Cook Inlet as a front lifts northward
across the Gulf and a low tracks westward across Kodiak Island
later today.

Most of Southcentral will remain dry out ahead of the front today,
with hazy sunshine as high clouds overspread the area. Tightening
pressure gradients will also lead to strengthening winds through the
usual gaps (Turnagain Arm/Knik River Valley/Copper River). The front
will lift northward and weaken tonight through Sunday, with rain
spreading to Prince William Sound. Strong low level flow will
produce downslope drying in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, though a few showers could make it inland as the flow
weakens Sunday through Sunday night. In any case, the proximity of
the front will lead to a cloudier and cooler day on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A band of rainfall will push across Southwest Alaska from south
to north this morning as a stacked low pressure system near
Nikolski shifts eastward. By this afternoon, a triple point low is
expected to develop in the North Pacific south of Chignik. This
newly formed and strengthening low pressure system will move
across the Alaska Peninsula late tonight and bring rainfall to a
large portion of Southwest Alaska with the Bristol Bay area
receiving the brunt of the rainfall. Rainfall will largely come to
an end Sunday afternoon as the low pressure system continues to
track westward into the Bering Sea.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of low pressure near Nikolski will slide eastward throughout
the day. A triple point low will develop south of the Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon which will result in gusty winds through
Shelikof Strait and across portions of the Alaska Peninsula.
These two low pressure systems will merge Sunday afternoon and
gradually weaken as the low begins to slowly move toward the Gulf
of Alaska. In the meantime, the next frontal system will enter in
the western Bering Sea Sunday night as a low pressure system
pushes off the coast of Kamchatka.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Next week will be characterized by high pressure that will build
in over the Bering and try to stretch into mainland Alaska. This
ridging will help push the low over the southwestern Gulf of
Alaska further southward into the North Pacific. However, it will
not be strong enough to fully inhibit afternoon convection for
much of the southern mainland. By the middle of next week, another
low will track eastward over the western portion of the Aleutian
chain, shifting the ridging over the Bering eastward into the
Southwestern coast and mainland by the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131
	     Gale Warning 119 120 125 132 138 139 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK