Small Craft Advisory 327, NWS Anchorage, AK

246 
FZAK52 PAFC 261100
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-262345-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 80 NM NORTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNIMAK PASS AT
1008 MB THU NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB LOW 
OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-262345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-262345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-262345-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-262345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-262345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-262345-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-262345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-262345-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-262345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-262345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-262345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-262345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-262345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-262345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-262345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-262345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-262345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 AM AKDT WED APR 26 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 15
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked low centered over the central Aleutians is
providing the steering flow for much of the weather occurring over
Southern Alaska this morning. Another wave of moisture
circulating around the low is over the Gulf and moving towards the
north Gulf coast. Downsloping has largely kept the usual
downslope shadowed locations dry, but above mountain top level,
overcast skies are preventing much nighttime cooling. Most
locations in the Southcentral are holding in the 40s. Temperatures
across Southwest Alaska are slightly cooler, but a similar
scenario is playing out, with widespread cloud cover limiting
cooling. Scattered shower activity is present across Bristol Bay.
Over the Bering, once again it's the low over the central
Aleutians causing a slow swirl of the abundant cloud cover, with
off-and-on showers for the entire area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
With a stagnant weather pattern in place,
the models are all in good agreement with the movement (or lack
thereof) of the large- scale weather systems. The NAM was the
preferred model for its higher resolution. However, because any
shower activity over the area, especially southwest Alaska and the
Bering is being driven by even smaller scale processes, timing
where and when each shower will produce rain at the surface is
nearly impossible. The NAM however, gives the best approximation.
Besides precipitation chances, other forecast challenges in this
pattern include determining the strength and location of the
Turnagain Arm jet, which typically sets up with cross-barrier flow
through the mountains. Broad-scale forecast confidence is high
with local scale confidence somewhat lower.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue to prevail although brief
periods of MVFR clouds are possible at times this morning. Turnagain
Arm winds may bend north towards PANC this afternoon for bringing
an increase in southeasterly winds.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southeasterly flow aloft over south central Alaska will continue
today and then weaken this evening. Another "surge" of moisture
will push into the area today, with isolated to scattered showers,
more numerous along the Kenai Peninsula. This moisture will weaken
and move south tonight as weak high pressure builds into the
mainland from the east. On Wednesday and Wednesday night the high
pressure will retreat northward. With limited moisture, most of
the showers will be in the higher elevations, with just isolated
showers for the inland valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain showers will be a little more prevalent today across the
mainland. A shortwave propagating through the flow from the Gulf
will keep showers going this morning, mostly across the Bristol
Bay area. During the afternoon and evening hours, activity will
spread to the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. Both the colder air
aloft associated with the shortwave, and the warmer springtime
diurnal temperatures will enhance the shower activity today making
for some of the first convective activity of the season. Rain
showers will be much less widespread on Wednesday, but still
scattered in nature. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy conditions
with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s and generally light
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad low pressure system spinning over the central Bering
will make little movement over the next couple days. Scattered
rain showers and light winds will remain the norm. Areas of fog
can be expected from the Pribilof Islands and north/eastward over
the water.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Southwest flow will persist through the weekend and will keep
moderately unsettled weather across the region. Thursday and
Friday, a low pressure system will slide north and into SE Alaska.
In its wake will be an abundance of moisture and cloud cover
across Southcentral AK. Friday and Saturday a closed Bering low
becomes an open wave over the southwest with a trough axis
swinging over Southcentral which will bring increased chances for
rain across the southern mainland.

Weak ridging will build in across the southern mainland into the
weekend.  Come Sunday, SE Alaska is expected to see a similar
scenario pan out as what will be happening Weds/Thurs. Numerical
guidance begins to struggle in day 5 and later frame with run
consistency issues and large ensemble spread across the Bering.
There are similarities in timing of an elongated frontal/trough
passage across the chain this weekend, but wildly different
solutions on how strong and where the attached low will be.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...SS