Small Craft Advisory 302, NWS Anchorage, AK

433 
FZAK51 PAFC 102340
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111230-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1013 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUE 
MORNING. A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG 
THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-111230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK 
ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111230-
PORT VALDEZ-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111230-
VALDEZ ARM-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111230-
CHINIAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111230-
MARMOT BAY-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-111230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT MON APR 10 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A blocking high remains over the Beaufort Sea this morning with an
elongated region of troughing stretching from Eastern Siberia to
the coast of Washington. The main branch of the Pacific jet stream
remains south of the mainland of Alaska, enhanced along three
different shortwave troughs. The first, from west to east, is a
rapidly deepening low south of the Kamchatka Peninsula, now moving
into the SW Bering Sea. The next is a digging shortwave trough
moving from the Eastern Aleutians into the North Pacific. The
third is a subtropical-jet aided shortwave trough moving toward
California. Closer to home, a low amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within the larger scale flow is moving northwest toward
the Gulf of Alaska. Both satellite and the Middleton radar are
depicting this incoming system well. Isolated to scattered showers
remain mainly across coastal regions, especially the Southern
Kenai Peninsula and parts of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical weather models are in much better agreement with the
shortwave trough and associated surface low moving toward the
North Gulf this morning. They are also in much better agreement
with the pattern beyond day 4-5 as a strong ridge aloft builds
over most of Alaska. The biggest uncertainty is the precipitation
distribution as the shortwave trough moves inland today given the
near mesoscale size of this feature. Nonetheless, forecast
confidence is high as the sensible weather differences (in terms
of the models) across most of Alaska are not large.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to remain at the airport.
Afternoon rain/snow showers can't be ruled out today, but those
are not expected to impact visibility or CIGS. Winds are expected
to remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A fairly strong short wave is moving along the north Gulf Coast
this morning which is enhancing rain showers and snow showers in
the unstable air mass that is in place over Southcentral Alaska.
This shortwave is projected to move westward along the coast and
to the northern Cook Inlet area by this afternoon before rotating
more southwestward this evening. After that it rapidly falls apart
over the kenai Peninsula tonight.
Another shortwave will try to make it into the Copper River Basin
from the east Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday but it will not
make much headway as the upper level ridge begins to build into
the region at that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak cyclonic flow between the pair of lows over the Bering Strait
and south of the Alaska Peninsula will keep isolated showers over
the southwest mainland through tonight. Drier conditions will
develop by Tuesday as a high amplitude ridge builds over the west
coast of Alaska. This will bring warmer temperatures during the
day, although overnight lows may actually be slightly cooler owing
to less cloud cover. Fog will continue to be an issue for the next
few nights with lingering low level moisture and relatively weak
surface flow, with more widespread fog possible by Tuesday
morning as the ridge builds in and skies clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A deep North Pacific low will push a gale force front across the
Western and Central Aleutians today, accompanied by potentially
heavy rain at times. The front will move towards the Pribilofs
and Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday, but then make little
additional eastward progress as it encounters the stout ridge
encompassing the western mainland. This will keep the most active
weather confined to the western half of the Bering, with windy and
showery conditions in store as the low center tracks over the
Western Aleutians and weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Model guidance had a bit of a tough time dealing with the mid week
ridging that is progged to set up across Western AK. Eventually
all have given way to climatology for this time of year. Monday
evening and into Tuesday, a modestly deep low pressure system
will detach from any upper level support. This low will slide
north into the western Bering and will have an occluded front
draped out from it. Farther to the east will be a strengthening
ridge that will slowly work across the AKPEN and across the
western portion of the state. The frontal occlusion will run into
the ridge and slow down any eastward progress. By Thursday the
front stalls out from St. Paul and southeast through Cold Bay as
the parent low completely fills. Southcentral for this time will
continue to see more of the same. As the high pressure slides
closer, skies are expected to remain fairly mainly cloud free.
Daytime temperatures will continue to slowly inch upward as we
gain more solar heating and overnight lows will still dip just
below freezing on nights that allow heat to radiate out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 170 173-179 185 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...SS