Small Craft Advisory 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

259 
FZAK51 PAFC 021131
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030045-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1003 MB LOW OVER MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES INLAND THROUGH PRINCE 
WILLIAM SOUND AND DISSIPATES SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 981 MB 
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 973
MB BY TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-030045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-030045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-030045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-030045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-030045-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-030045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-030045-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-030045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-030045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-030045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ132-030045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-030045-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-030045-
MARMOT BAY-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-030045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-030045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-030045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-030045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Apr 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level closed low is located just west of Chirikof Island
with an associated trough over Kodiak Island extending eastward
into the Gulf. This is reflected at the surface with a 990 mb low
pressure system positioned just east of Kodiak city. This is
keeping the Southcentral Region with gusty southeasterly onshore
flow. While a secondary low is located over the Ahklun Mountains
in the Bristol Bay interior. Looking at the radar imagery, there
is widespread showers over the Prince William Sound, Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and the Susitna Valley this morning. Meanwhile, the
majority of the Southwest Alaska region has widespread showers
except for downsloping drier conditions along the Alaska Range.
The warm air advection continues to bring warmer temperatures to
the Southcentral region. The surface temperatures are ranging from
the upper 30s to lower 40s along the northern Gulf coastal
communities, and lower 30s for inland areas.

The Scatterometer wind imagery is showing gale force northwesterly
winds along the Eastern Aleutians as the colder air filters into
the Chain. The satellite imagery is showing the majority of the
Bering under the influence of marine layer stratus. The surface
observations along the Chain, and the Saint Paul Island are
reporting northerly to northwesterly flow this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement with the storm track of the
low pressure system near Kodiak Island. The GFS was the preferred
model of choice through the short-term, and the forecast
confidence is above average through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Look for predominantly VFR conditions with drier downslope
conditions for the Anchorage Bowl through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula will push east into
the Gulf today and then north into the mainland early Sunday
morning. The associated surface low that is currently east of
Kodiak will move north today and stall just southeast of the Kenai
peninsula today, and then push inland by early Sunday afternoon.
Moist onshore flow maintains a wet, and cloudy pattern through
the weekend. Most of the precipitation remains confined to the
north Gulf coast and coastal mountains, with strong cross barrier
flow over the coastal mountain ranges limiting inland areas to
just a few showers. The air mass over the area is quite warm, and
the precipitation type at many lower elevations is in the form of
rain. As the upper low moves inland on Sunday, southwesterly cold
air advection will help to drag snow levels back down towards sea
level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough remains stationary over Bristol Bay into
Monday bringing increased chances for precipitation. Gusty north
to west winds can be expected on the backside of the system for
the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Peninsula with easterly wind across
the inland areas becoming southeast on Sunday. Periods of snow
today, changes over to rain or mixes with rain through this
evening for areas east of a line from Aniak to Dillingham. Snow
tapers off on Sunday as the surface low weakens, and moves toward
to Kuskokwim.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected through the weekend as
re-enforcing shortwaves move around the resident upper level
trough in the eastern Bering. A strong short wave currently
rounding the base of this trough forces a tighter pressure
gradient along the eastern Bering, and Alaska Peninsula resulting
in gusty winds through tonight. The wave of energy lifts north on
Sunday pushing the associated low inland with wind speeds tapering
down in response. A ridge across the central and western Bering
brings a quieter weather pattern for the western waters into
Monday with the ridge center moving to the Central Aleutians
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The weather next week looks fairly similar to the current weather
pattern, insofar as unsettled weather is expected to continue
across the Gulf of Alaska and southern Mainland. This will result
in the most persistent periods of precipitation along the
coastlines of the Gulf of Alaska, with interior areas such as
Anchorage seeing more showery or occasional rounds of rain and
snow. Temperatures will be closer to normal than in recent weeks,
with cloud-cover on any given day playing the biggest role in how
much melting can occur. The southwest mainland looks to stay a bit
more on the cool side of this pattern, but even these parts of
the state will see a trend toward more typical temperatures.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea/Aleutians will spend the first half of
the week in continued cool and showery northerly flow, with a
weather front bringing in stormier and a bit warmer weather for
the latter half of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning...132 150 155 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...AD