Small Craft Advisory 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

301 
FZAK51 PAFC 311125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010030-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 MB LOW 40 NM WEST OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON SWINGS 
EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET AT 1001 MB BY SUN 
MORNING. A FRONT SWINGS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE TRAILING FRONT SWEEPS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TRAILING INTO 
THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-010030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN 
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010030-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010030-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010030-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010030-
MARMOT BAY-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-010030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level shortwave that brought all the snowfall for the
Anchorage Bowl yesterday has exited northward into the central
Alaska interior. While upstream an amplified ridge extends
through the Gulf across the Aleutian Range into the Bristol Bay
interior. Meanwhile, a large complex low is positioned south of
the Central Aleutians. The associated occluded front is
approaching the Eastern Aleutians stretching just south of the
lower southwestern Gulf region this morning. This coincides with
the satellite imagery reflecting a large plume of moisture
entering the aforementioned region, and spreading along the
Eastern to Central Aleutians. The radar imagery is showing a few
lingering snow showers along the northern Gulf coastal communities.
Looking at the Southwest Alaska region, they remain under
offshore flow with continued dry conditions. While the Bering Sea
has predominantly easterly flow with marine layer stratus.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement with the next low pressure
system located over the North Pacific. The NAM was the preferred
model through the short-term forecast. The jet stream has
transitioned to a southwesterly flow as it enters the Western
Gulf, before transitioning to northwesterly flow along the
Southeast Panhandle. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures
to the Southcentral Region. The forecast confidence is above
average as we head toward the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions will transition to VFR this morning. Look for
the northerly winds to increase this afternoon as the pressure
gradient strengthens with a weather front entering the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong front moving in from the southwest will surge across the
gulf and into south central Alaska today. This front will be
accompanied by fairly heavy precipitation along and near the
coast. Inland locations will remain mostly dry through Friday
night due to strong southeast flow across the coastal mountain
ranges. The front will also bring much warmer air, allowing snow
to change over to rain fairly quickly across coastal locations.
This warmer air will move inland on Friday, with temperatures
climbing into the 40s at many locations on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front currently stretched across the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula pushes north later today spreading snow and gusty
winds across the Southwest mainland. Gusty east to northeasterly
winds are expected to be strong along the boundary which brings
blowing snow impacts to the Alaska Peninsula into Friday morning.
Winds increase across Bristol Bay late morning with snow
developing in the afternoon. An east to west oriented low level
jet associated with the front limits snow through today as strong
winds along the range keeps most of the area downsloped. However,
the flow weakens tonight as the surface low approaches Sand Point
which brings increased chances for snow. By Friday morning, the
front orients along a north to south position from the Alaska
Peninsula to western Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim. The boundary
stalls through Saturday, therefore snow amounts were increased
especially along and west of Dillingham. Snow amounts may need
adjusting with the next package as there is still a bit of
uncertainty with the track of the surface low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Winds increase this morning across the eastern half of the Bering
as a North Pacific low moves a front north toward the southern
mainland. Gale to storm force winds are expected to impact marine
waters through Friday night with the strongest winds along and
south of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Snow develops
along the frontal boundary mixed with rain along the eastern
Aleutians. Cold air advecting in behind the low is expected to
change precipitation to all snow by this afternoon. Across the
western waters...ridging along Kamchatka moves slowly toward the
western Aleutians with a lighter northerly flow and low clouds the
dominant pattern through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

(From yesterdays Forecast Discussion)

Following the chinook on Friday, the possibility of another
chinook on Saturday is growing. Regardless if the chinook happens,
temperatures overnight on Friday will likely remain above
freezing for much of Southcentral Alaska with Saturday high
temperatures in the 40s once again. Southwest Alaska will not see
the extremes that Southcentral will because the storm track
favors the warmer air pushing eastward into the gulf of Alaska. As
the active weather pattern remains entrenched across the region,
a series of low pressure systems will move into the gulf of Alaska
through the upcoming week. This will allow continued pushes of
warm and moist air back toward Southcentral Alaska which could
quite possibly keep high temperatures above freezing for the next
week. The gulf coast should continue to get slammed with rainfall
at lower levels and snowfall toward higher elevations much much of
inland Alaska will remain on the dry side as most locations
should remain downsloped. This pattern really shows no signs of
breaking so until something changes, this warm and spring-like
pattern will continue.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 139 150 155 172.
 Gale Warning 120 125 132 136 137 140 160 165 170 171 173>176 180.
 Heavy Frz Spray 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MC