Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAFC 071303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080145-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

$$

PKZ119-080145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA DIMINISHING TO 
55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE 
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080145-
PORT VALDEZ-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080145-
VALDEZ ARM-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080145-
CHINIAK BAY-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080145-
MARMOT BAY-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-080145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
403 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

063 
FZAK51 PAFC 080046
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081345-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
REMAINS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-081345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-081345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-081345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-081345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING.\
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-081345-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-081345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-081345-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-081345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-081345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-081345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-081345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-081345-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-081345-
MARMOT BAY-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-081345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-081345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-081345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-081345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST Fri Jan 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An Omega Block pattern is taking shape across much of the Alaska
domain this morning. An impressive ridge continues to build over
the Bering with potent upper level jet support. A 120kt finger is
moving from south to north along its western periphery and then
spilling back down its eastern side at 130 kts. This strong upper
level support is what we are keying on to help trigger some of the
strongest winds this morning. This upper level energy should help
to mix some of the stronger winds downward as it pushes through
the usual gaps, especially in steep terrain. Under the Bering
ridge is an impressive surface high with the pressure reported at
Hooper Bay to be 1054 mb overnight. Cold air is also starting to
move down from the Arctic over the eastern side of the high. 850mb
temperatures have dropped below -20C over the Copper River Basin.
This cold air will only serve to reinforce the offshore gradient
across much of South Central. Under the high itself, there is some
low stratus and fog lingering around the YK-Delta. And it is not
until you reach the Western Aleutians that you will find any
precipitation with some rain impacting Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest difference in the models tonight is a trend slightly
later for the highest winds. Through the week, many of the models
were painting those winds occurring overnight Thu into early Fri
morning. But now some of the most recent runs around showing it
closer to noon-time on Fri. The high resolution models were used
in handling these winds. Otherwise, the NAM was preferred with the
precipitation over the Western Aleutians. Models remain in very
good agreement lending to high forecast confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High winds have not yet developed in the Valdez area, but still
expect them to rapidly strengthen during the morning hours. Model
cross sections show a descending tropopause on the east side of a
strengthening jet streak. Not only will stronger winds from aloft
lower toward the boundary layer, but conditions will become
extremely favorable for mountain wave activity. This will result
in much stronger and erratic wind gusts, whereas winds to this
point have been relatively steady. Lastly, low level flow is also
becoming more favorable as it shifts from northwest to north-
northeast.

For the rest of Southcentral the shift in low level flow to
northerly along with increased vertical mixing as the sun rises
will lead to an increase in winds for most locations. Winds won't
be nearly as strong as along the Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound, but will be gusty in nature. Winds across inland areas
will quickly die down tonight into Saturday. Deep arctic air in
the Copper River Basin and persistent tight pressure gradients
will continue to produce gap winds through the weekend,
particularly for the Valdez area, the Copper River Delta, and
along the Matanuska River.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The blocking ridge is currently over the eastern part of the
Bering Sea which is keeping all precipitation out of southwest
mainland Alaska with some high clouds riding over the ridge and
into the area from the north. The pressure gradient has also
greatly increased over the area, especially the Bristol Bay
region, and that will help keep some gusty northerly winds in the
area with the strongest ones through channeled terrain. The
pressure gradient will decrease late in the afternoon and
overnight which will diminish the gusty winds. Fog does not look
like it will be very widespread at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The blocking ridge over the eastern Bering Sea is keeping the
storm track over the western Bering Sea and western Aleutian
Islands for the next few days. There is also the usual patchy fog
and stratus under this ridge in the central Bering Sea but there
has been a considerable amount of clearing over the eastern bering
and Alaska Peninsula. One of the forecast questions for this area
is how far westward the clearing will move in the Bering Sea over
the next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended forecast period Saturday evening, a rather
impressive 2.5 standard deviation 500 hpa blocking high centered
over Southwest Alaska will be dominating the entire forecast
region. Besides weakening fronts over the Western and Central
Bering Sea, dominant high pressure over the mainland will keep dry
and clear weather in place through the middle of next week.
Temperatures aloft will be warming (in the mountains), but
temperatures in lower elevations will remain at or slightly below
normal as strong inversions will remain in place. Fog development
may become a local threat inland Sunday and beyond, but this ridge
pattern will not be as conducive to fog as recent patterns where
the mainland was along the western periphery of the ridge axis.
Both global deterministic and ensemble models are hinting at a
retrogression of the ridge and more northerly flow over southern
Alaska late midweek, bringing in arctic air into the region along
with more offshore flow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131 135.
MARINE...Storm Warning 127 128.
	Gale Warning 119-126 130-132
				137-140 150 173-178.
	Heavy Frz Spray 126 127 139 140 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EZ
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1047 AM AKST FRI JAN 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE VALDEZ             61.13N 146.23W
01/06/2017  M96 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            SUSTAINED WINDS 77 MPH GUSTS TO 96 MPH

1036 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE VALDEZ            61.13N 146.26W
01/06/2017  M81 MPH                             AK   AWOS

&&

KUTZ