Small Craft Advisory 220, NWS Anchorage, AK

684 
FZAK51 PAFC 141159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150030-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD 989 MB LOW CENTER 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AT AROUND THE SAME INTENSITY THROUGH 
THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-150030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150030-
PORT VALDEZ-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150030-
VALDEZ ARM-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE 
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 45 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150030-
CHINIAK BAY-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150030-
MARMOT BAY-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 30 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-150030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
359 AM AKDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The axis of the positively tilted longwave trough extending from
the Yukon into the north Pacific has begun to gradually shift
westward towards Southcentral Alaska this morning. This is
contributing to the latest increase in outflow winds across the
area as the surface pressure gradient tightens along the north
gulf coast. Otherwise, conditions remain much the same as during
the past week as high pressure continues to dominate the Bering
Sea and facilitate dry offshore flow over the mainland, with
mostly clear skies prevailing across much of the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show strong synoptic agreement through the
middle of the week as a series of arctic shortwaves will help to
dig the mainland trough and the stout blocking high finally begins
to show some signs of weakening. Short term forecast concerns are
still largely focused around localized wind effects, therefore
the morning forecast package continues to heavily utilize higher
resolution NAM guidance to better capture these features.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds will persist
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Yet another wind event is in store for Southcentral over the next
couple days. Winds are already blowing in many areas, but wind
will become more widespread and stronger once the sun rises and
mixes out very weak surface inversions, allowing stronger winds
from aloft to mix down to the surface. Even more noteworthy are a
series of short-waves which will drop southward across the state
today through Tuesday, ushering in a resupply of arctic air. This
in turn will lead to a deepening surface low over the Gulf and
tightening pressure gradients. Once winds get going it appears
they will be strong enough to maintain a well mixed boundary layer
and persist through the overnight hours both tonight and Tuesday
night.

Meanwhile, the remnants of a storm system moving inland across
Southeast Alaska this morning will curve back westward toward the
Eastern Copper River Basin and eastern Prince William Sound this
afternoon through tonight. The persistent strong offshore flow
will maintain very dry air in the low levels, so any snow that
does reach the ground will be very light and should not result
in any accumulation or blowing snow issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Much of the same for the mainland, except for a colder air mass
moving back over the area. Continued dry, cold, and windy
conditions will remain for the next couple of days.  Arctic air
funnels back in from the north late this afternoon through this
evening which will bring an increase in gusty winds as a
shortwave trough passes, mainly for the Greater Bristol Bay area.
The increased winds will stop temperatures from falling too
drastically. Conditions will hold through late Tuesday night.
Expect below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure remains in control of the western Bering Sea, while
cold northerly flow sits over the east. Little in the way of
precipitation chances exist in the short term. Gusty gap winds
will set up over the Alaska Peninsula as cold advection kicks in
this afternoon into the evening hours and will continue through
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Over the Bering and eastern Aleutians Tue night into Wed a weak
trough will move south with possible snow showers. A front will
also spread some snow and rain over the extreme western Aleutians.

A front associated with low pressure in the Gulf of AK will bring
some snow to the north Gulf coast and mountains of western Prince
William Sound on Wed.

For days 4 through 7, high pressure will move from the eastern
Bering to mainland AK during the weekend. This transition will
allow a new front from a north Pacific low to approach and cross
the western and central Aleutians, with rain and small craft to
gale force winds. The rest of the Bering and eastern Aleutians
will be dry beneath the influence of high pressure.

Low pressure over the Gulf of AK will slowly spin, with periods
of snow affecting coastal areas through the weekend. With high
pressure over the interior, wind at times is also expected
through channeled terrain along the coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 128 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 138 139

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DS