Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

983 
FZAK51 PAFC 042011 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050415-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THU...THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ119-050415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050415-
PORT VALDEZ-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050415-
VALDEZ ARM-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER.  
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050415-
CHINIAK BAY-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050415-
MARMOT BAY-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

-050400-

1101 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN  THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1111 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

961 
FZAK51 PAFC 050032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051330-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THU...BEGINS TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUES
WEAKENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-051330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUST
TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUST TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051330-
PORT VALDEZ-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051330-
VALDEZ ARM-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 45 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051330-
CHINIAK BAY-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051330-
MARMOT BAY-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. N OF ANCHOR POINT...N WIND 15 KT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
332 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

034 
FZAK51 PAFC 050056 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051300-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THU...BEGINS TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUES
WEAKENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-051300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUST
TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUST TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051300-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051300-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 45 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051300-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051300-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. N OF ANCHOR POINT...N WIND 15 KT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large blocking upper ridge which extended north from the Gulf
to over the central mainland has been nudged eastward some. This
has set up southwesterly flow aloft over Southcentral and allowed
upper level moisture (clouds), associated with a frontal band over
western Alaska, to spread east.

The additional upper level cloudiness did little to weaken the
surface inversions and stable conditions across the Anchorage Bowl
and Copper River Basin. Low clouds and fog once again continued
across these areas, especially over the Anchorage Bowl where there
were widespread low visibilities in dense fog. Gusty outflow
winds continued over the eastern Kenai Pen and the North Gulf
Coast.

Further west, a weakening frontal trough continued cloudy
conditions across much of the AK Pen and southwest mainland. A
little light rain was evident from the AK Pen to over the
Kuskokwim Delta and light snow/mix over the Kuskokwim Valley.
Freezing levels dipped some over Southwest Alaska overnight, but
remained above 1000 ft over the Delta and 6000 ft in Bristol bay.
Accompanying surface temperatures remain unseasonably mild. A
north moving low and associated frontal system produced gusty
southerly winds and some rain over the western Bering
Sea/Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in relatively good agreement through the short
term. The models are capturing the synoptic pattern, especially
with the enhancement of the outflow wind event across the eastern
Kenai and North Gulf Coast Wed and Thu. However, mesoscale edits
will be required to adequately capture the magnitude of the winds.
Models still struggle with fog conditions across the Anchorage
Bowl.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR/LIFR conditions will be the general rule through
Wednesday morning. There will however be periods, especially
during the afternoon and early evening, where ceilings and
visibilities will lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The fog will continue to dominate the Anchorage Bowl, and along
the Knik Arm through the overnight hours tonight. The current
upper air sounding for Anchorage has a slightly weaker inversion,
and combined with the weak surface flow the fog remains through
Wednesday morning. As we head into Wednesday afternoon an upper
level trough tracks from west to east through the Southcentral
region. This kicks in colder air filtering into the AOR, and mixes
out the fog. This cold air advection ramps up the gap winds
resulting in gusty westerly winds through the Whittier region by
Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, an upstream 140 knot northwesterly
jet streak moves through the Southcentral region by Thursday
morning. This enhances the cold interior air, and through the
Copper River Basin. These two synoptic features will bring in
strong northerly to northeasterly winds through Thompson Pass, and
in the city of Valdez by Thursday. Therefore, a high wind watch
has been issued for the aforementioned region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A stationary front over the Kuskokwim Delta causing nearly 36
hours of cold rain near Bethel is finally beginning to slide east.
As the front moves over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight, a
quick inch or two of snow is possible.

Behind the front, the largest forecast challenge begins...fog.
Strengthening surface high pressure edging right over the
Kuskokwim Delta, plenty of residual moisture from the ongoing
rain, slow warm advection of milder air over the thin sea ice
along the coast, clear skies and dry air aloft, and a persistence
of this pattern for an extended period of time with very little
wind will make for near ideal conditions for fog development along
the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta from Hooper Bay south through at
least Kipnuk tonight through tomorrow night as well. There is a
lesser fog threat along the coasts of Bristol Bay as well, though
somewhat stronger offshore winds through this area makes it far
less of a concern for inland locales.

Somewhat cooler air expected tomorrow night will drop temperatures
inland over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley closer to their seasonal
averages, but most areas look to stay well above normal
temperature-wise for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure is beginning to strengthen in the southern Bering
and this feature will become sprawling and dominant over the
coming days. 48 hours from now this this will be a huge blocking
upper-level high pressure center bringing extremely tranquil
weather to the eastern 2/3 of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
region for the foreseeable future. The downside of this pattern
will be the likely expansion of dense fog...especially over the
northeast Bering and along the Kuskokwim Delta coastal areas. The
western 1/3 of the Bering and Aleutians will stay on the unsettled
side of the High pressure center, with a series of gale-force
fronts impacting the area over the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Thursday evening, a high amplitude upper level ridge will be
centered over eastern Bering and west coast of Alaska extending
all the way from 45N to the arctic. For southwest Alaska the ridge
will bring an extended period of dry weather with fog and low
stratus being the main forecast challenge. For southcentral Alaska
the position of the upper level ridge axis will put the area under
strong northerly flow aloft enhancing offshore flow, northerly
winds at ridge level and bringing strong outflow gap winds to
channeled terrain. This will include winds increasing through
Broad Pass and northern portions of the Susitna Valley, the
Matanuska Valley, the Seward area and Resurrection Bay, Whittier
and Passage Canal and the Copper River Delta.

The pattern is most favorable for gap winds and a possible
downslope/mountain wave wind storm in the Thompson Pass and Valdez
areas with winds increasing to 50 to 70 mph with gusts in the 80
to 90 mph range from Thursday evening through Friday evening.
Following this time period, the upper level ridge shifts east,
removing the upper level support necessary for the breaking
mountain waves. However, with the very deep cold pool which will
be in place over the Copper River Basin, the offshore pressure
gradient will continue to increase keeping the north to
northeasterly gap winds blowing strong through the weekend.

The large blocking ridge shifts gradually east so that it is
centered over more of mainland Alaska and remain in place through
through at least next Tuesday bringing dry weather to all but the
western and central Aleutians. Starting Wednesday or Thursday the
models have begun to introduce a shortwave or series of shortwaves
digging down from the northwest which could bring additional
surges of cold air and strong offshore flow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131.
 Dense Fog Advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning 121 127 132 177 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW/AD
LONG TERM...JR