Small Craft Advisory 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

700 
FZAK52 PAFC 190050
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191400-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MON
AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW 470 SOUTH OF ATTU SUN AFTERNOON DEEPENS TO
954 MB 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MIDDAY MON THEN SHIFTS TO 40 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-191400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191400-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-191400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191400-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF UNALASKA.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191400-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191400-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191400-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO
23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191400-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO
24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191400-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ181-191400-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-191400-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 PM AKST SAT FEB 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Fri Feb 17 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a negatively tilted upper level trough over southern
Alaska moving towards the northeast. Snow is accompanying this
trough over south central Alaska and some showers are lingering
behind the trough over southwest Alaska. This trough is associated
with a nearly stationary upper level low over northwest Alaska.
Weak ridging is over the Bering Sea and much of the Aleutians,
with considerable clouds and some showers in the low level
unstable northerly flow. There is a weak upper low just south of
the eastern Aleutians moving towards the east. A front is moving
into the western Aleutians from the southwest, associated with an
upper low near the Kamchatka peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement. There are the usual
differences in timing and amount of precipitation which lowers the
forecast confidence to near or possibly just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions in snow are expected tonight as an upper
level trough moves through the area. Brief IFR conditions are also
possible. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR during the
early morning hours as the trough moves north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The negatively tilted upper trough now lifting northward across
the Cook Inlet region will bring another round of accumulating
snow to Southcentral AK this evening before a somewhat quieter
pattern takes hold for the rest of the weekend. The trough will
draw on ample moisture and instability as noted on Anchorage's
afternoon sounding to produce a window of moderate snowfall
through late this evening. Several additional inches of snow will
be possible across the upper Cook Inlet region, with the highest
amounts along a corridor from Anchorage northward through Wasilla
and Willow. The Palmer area will likely see lower amounts as
unfavorable southerly flow limits snowfall through the evening
until the trough moves through later tonight. Snow will rapidly
taper off with the passage of the trough, leaving Southcentral
in a more benign showery regime in southwest flow for the
remainder of the weekend. Another weak wave moving up Cook Inlet
late Saturday may provide an opportunity to once again enhance
snow shower activity, but little if any additional accumulation
is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weak low pressure system positioned the Bristol Bay interior
continues to fill before dissipating heading into this weekend.
This synoptic feature will produce scattered snow showers before
diminishing along the Aleutian/Alaska Range through Saturday.
While the Kuskokwim Delta has an upper level closed low dropping
down into Norton Sound region with the associated shortwave
swinging through the Kuskokwim Delta through Saturday. This
brings in cooler air to the aforementioned region, and combined
with the northerly winds will produce wind chill issues.
Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory for Wind Chills is in effect
from late this evening tonight through Saturday morning for the
Kuskokwim Delta. Look for the wind chill temperatures to range
from minus 35 below to 45 below. As this shortwave continues to
move from west to east through the rest of the Southwest Alaska
region by Sunday. This results in a cooling trend through the
weekend before a warming trend by Monday as an upstream ridge of
high pressure moves into the Southwest Alaska coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering Sea/Aleutians remain under the influence of northerly
to northeasterly flow before the next pattern change by Saturday.
While an upper level ridge builds into the Western Aleutians, and
moves eastward through the weekend. Meanwhile. a storm force low
develops just west of the Kamchatka Peninsula with the associated
weather front approaching the Western Aleutians by Saturday
afternoon. This front swings through the western Bering, and
tracks northward into the Eastern Siberian region. Then, a rapidly
intensifying storm force low develops south of the Western
Aleutians by Sunday afternoon. The frontal boundary with this
system brings storm force southeasterly to easterly winds through
the aforementioned region by Sunday evening. This synoptic feature
brings warmer temperatures accompanied by a large swath of
moisture to the Western Aleutians/Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast Sunday evening, a large arctic
trough will be in the process of digging into southern Alaska.
Rather cold 850 hpa temperatures as low as -25 C will push into
southwest Alaska with those colder temperatures infiltrating into
Southcentral slowly through Tuesday. This will push temperatures
below average region wide until temperatures begin to warm
Wednesday. Meanwhile, over the Bering, a powerful storm force low
will move into the Western Bering Sea Sunday night and Monday
followed by a another large low Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Eventually the associated fronts will move east into southern
Alaska by midweek, bringing increased chances for snow...then
eventually rain and snow as temperatures warm dramatically by the
end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 165 179 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1001 PM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
02/17/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            6 INCHES IN THE LAST 8 HOURS. LIGHT SNOW ONGOING. CALM
            WINDS.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1102 PM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     SNOW             1 E EAGLE RIVER         61.32N 149.54W
02/17/2017  M7.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE FLAKES FALLING. 5 INCHES IN 2.5 HOURS. 7 INCHES
            STORM TOTAL.

&&

JPW