Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Anchorage, AK

764 
FZAK51 PAFC 011301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020145-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-020145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020145-
PORT VALDEZ-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020145-
VALDEZ ARM-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020145-
CHINIAK BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020145-
MARMOT BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-020145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

681 
FZAK51 PAFC 020027
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021345-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH
FRI.

$$

PKZ119-021345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.  SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021345-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021345-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021345-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021345-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-021345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern continues to amplify this morning. The polar front jet
is coming up and over a building ridge in the Central Bering at
125 kts. It then dives down through the Alaska Peninsula before
coming back up into the Cook Inlet region at 85 kts. This finger
of the jet is helping to support a frontal boundary that is more
or less stalled over the Cook Inlet. On the east side of the
front, strong south to southeast winds are keeping things mostly
dry on the leeward side of the mountains. These winds have also
brought in some much warmer air with much of the Anchorage Bowl
reaching into the upper 30s overnight. The front itself remains
mostly out over the inlet with just some light precipitation
reaching the Western Kenai coast. But even most of that
precipitation is falling as a mix of rain and snow or just rain.
Further to the east where there is less wind, Valdez remains all
snow and has picked up a couple of inches overnight.

Over the Bering and Southwest AK, most of the activity has come
to an end as precipitation has moved east of the area. Conditions
will continue to quiet down over the mainland as a ridge builds
into the Eastern Bering. Over the Western Bering, a storm force
front will bring another round of precipitation and building seas
today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically, models are in good shape. But none of them are
handling the front that is parked over the Cook Inlet well. Just
about all models depict heavy snow to be falling over the Western
Kenai at this time, when in fact it is light rain falling instead.
Thus, have made adjustments to the winter weather advisories. All
models depict the surface low riding up and along this front
through today. This should bring an end to the downsloping winds
of the Western Kenai and allow the front to slide a hair further
east. But with temperatures already at or above freezing, forecast
confidence in snow amounts is relatively low for the entire
Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty southeast winds will slowly diminish through the
day as the front weakens. There is high confidence in this trend,
however still some uncertainty in the exact timing and speeds.
Showers will remain primarily confined to the mountains with
visibility and ceilings remaining VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With the main frontal band of precip remaining over Cook Inlet all
night, the biggest change to the forecast was to cancel the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Western Kenai Peninsula. Expect a mix of
rain and snow today for this area. It still looks like the band
will shift eastward by this evening as a short-wave trough
approaches from the west and a surface low moves up from the
south. An increase in intensity will help change precip back to
all snow with several inches accumulation still possible,
especially for the Kenai area. Meanwhile, have extended the Winter
Storm Warning for portions of the Susitna Valley through tonight.
With persistent strong southerly upslope flow have extended the
area under the warning to include the northern valley (Parks
Highway corridor north of Talkeetna).

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for the remainder of
the area as the trough and surface front weaken in place through
Wednesday. A strong ridge will then build in from the north
Wednesday night leading to development of a weak outflow wind
event along the coast. Cooler and drier weather will settle in
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over
the eastern Bering this morning before being positioned through
the Southwest Alaska region by Wednesday. This results in light
winds with onshore flow over the Kuskokwim Delta, and combined
with inversion setting up will enhance the formation of fog this
morning. Therefore, look for areas of patchy fog over the
Kuskokwim/Bristol Bay coastlines before spreading inland this
morning. Look for reduced visibilities of one half of a mile or
less at times along the Bristol Bay coastline. While the Kuskokwim
Delta coastline had some low marine layer stratus spreading into
the region. Meanwhile, as this ridge of high pressure moves
farther eastward look for more widespread dense fog issues
heading into the early Wednesday morning hours before dissipating
by Wednesday midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Central to Eastern Aleutians/Bering region will have high
pressure building into the region through Wednesday. Look for
the Eastern Aleutians to have dense fog developing by early
Wednesday morning before dissipating by Wednesday midday as the
high pressure moves farther eastward. While along the Western
Aleutians an occluded front swings through this morning
accompanied by storm force southeasterly winds. This synoptic
feature brings a large swath of moisture with rain, and warmer
temperatures spilling over into the western Bering. The
aforementioned frontal boundary will move eastward before
stalling over the central Bering/Aleutians by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There is very good agreement that an omega block setting up over
the Mainland late this week will bring a period of benign weather
to much of the area into the upcoming weekend. This omega block
will be much warmer than is typical for this time of year as it
forms in deep southerly flow over the Bering. As a result, much
of the Mainland should see near to above normal temperatures
(especially over the Southwest Mainland), sunny skies, with no
precipitation expected. In this pattern the primary concern will
be for the development of fog/stratus under the ridge, however
with broad offshore flow this likely will not be too widespread.

Over the Aleutians and Bering to the west of the Pribilofs
Islands, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will setup on the
western edge of the omega block. This will bring persistent gale
force winds and rain to much of the Central-Western Aleutians from
the middle of this week into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177 178 185.
 		 Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PLD
LONG TERM...DEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     VOLCANIC ASHFALL UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
01/31/2017                                      AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNALASKA PUBLIC SAFETY REPORTS TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASHFALL
            FROM BOGOSLOF VOLCANO.

&&

DKOCHEVA