Gale Warning 746, NWS Anchorage, AK

356 
FZAK51 PAFC 212352
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221300-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 976 mb low 300 nm south of Sand Point moves north into the 
eastern Bering tonight. A front in the western Gulf will move into
the northern Gulf Fri afternoon and stay nearly stationary 
through Sat afternoon. A 977 mb low 480 nm southeast of Cold Bay 
Fri afternoon moves 150 nm southeast of Sand Point at 985 mb Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Along the coast...E wind 25
kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Along the coast...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221300-
Resurrection Bay-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221300-
Prince William Sound-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221300-
Port Valdez-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221300-
Valdez Narrows-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221300-
Valdez Arm-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221300-
Passage Canal-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221300-
Barren Islands East-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 22
ft building to 28 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221300-
Chiniak Bay-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221300-
Marmot Bay-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221300-
Shelikof Strait-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221300-
Kachemak Bay-
252 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

215 
FZAK51 PAFC 221248
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230200-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front enters the Western Gulf Sat afternoon and moves across 
the Gulf through Sun morning. A 990 mb low slides along the 
front to 185 nm Southeast of Chignik by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-230200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230200-
Resurrection Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230200-
Prince William Sound-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230200-
Port Valdez-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230200-
Valdez Narrows-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230200-
Valdez Arm-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230200-
Passage Canal-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230200-
Barren Islands East-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230200-
Chiniak Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230200-
Marmot Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230200-
Shelikof Strait-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230200-
Kachemak Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 PM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The remnants of a once powerful Bering Sea low is moving east as
a low amplitude (and deamplifying still) shortwave trough tracks
across the ALCAN. Weak upper ridging is building over Southwest
Alaska ahead of a digging upper level trough over the western
Bering Sea and into the North Pacific. There is a ridge over the
northeast Pacific and a cutoff low to it's west near 38N. Closer
to home, a storm force front is stalled over the central Bering.
At the surface across Southcentral, the dichotomy in the pattern
is clear as there is a weak but obvious up-inlet flow over Cook
Inlet while a subtle offshore flow remains from Prince William
Sound eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the large
scale general synoptic pattern through the weekend. A duo of
powerful surface lows are expected to reinforce a strong
baroclinic zone over the eastern Bering Sea Thursday night and
Friday night, and while there remains some disagreement still with
the exact track of the second low, the models are now largely in
good agreement with increase forecast confidence of impacts across
Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. The NAM hi-res was
favored over Southcentral for local gap winds while the GFS was
favored for the strong front over the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will develop late this afternoon. Some
patchy fog and/or low stratus is possible over the terminal
beginning around midnight, and clearing by early Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak upper level trough will move across the Copper River Basin
this evening providing enough instability to trigger some snow
showers in the residual moisture left from the previous system
than moved through overnight. This will be followed by rapidly
diminishing cloud cover and the onset of a strong radiational
cooling inversion over the Basin that will likely result in low
stratus and fog throughout much of the low lying areas in the
Basin. Over the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet we should also see
an inversion with areas of fog, however, the down Inlet flow will
help to mix out some of the inversion, thus the fog should be
limited to wind protected areas. There is a chance the fog will
persist well into the day tomorrow under a ridge aloft that will
build over the Copper River Basin.

Another storm will move to south of the Alaska Peninsula Thursday
resulting in a tight gradient and strong wind extending northeast
to the Barren Islands. This will also push rain to Kodiak Island.
We will back off on the onset of the rain along the outer coast of
the Kenai Peninsula to account for a slightly slower progression
of the storm and precipitation field in the latest model run.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Sensible weather-wise, much of the southwest will be dry for the
ensuing 24 hr period which will prove to be a lull before the next
storm. Thursday evening, the precipitation shield will move into
the AKPEN, Eastern Bristol Bay and up the Kuskokwim Delta. The
projected thermal profiles suggest another wintry mix at the onset
of the storm. However, by Friday morning the precip type will
change over to rain along the coast. The models are in sync with
the tight pressure gradient over the AKPEN and Bristol Bay
Thursday afternoon and Friday. Gaps and downslope wind prone
areas along the AK pen will get hammered with winds. Confidence
begins to wane over the weekend due to the placement of a
secondary low but there is potential that this secondary low could
bring a prolonged period of strong/gusty winds to Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta into Saturday. Stay tuned for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Unsettled weather will continue as a series of lows trek across
the region. The forecast period commences with a surface low near
Adak. This low will continue to produce gusty winds across the
Aleutians. As time elapses, a second system will move into the
region from the southwest/North Pacific which will keep the tight
pressure gradient over the Eastern Aleutians. In addition to gusty
winds, the models ping into a deep fetch of moisture associated
with the warm sector. By Friday, a new disturbance will approach
Attu Island and Shemya.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday through Tuesday)...
By Friday, southern Alaska will be in the thick of things
weather-wise, with a low pressure system in the northern Bering
and another one close on its heels south of the AK Pen. This will
bring a strong series of fronts through Southwest Alaska, and
Bristol Bay and the Bering side of the AK Pen can expect some very
windy conditions. Precipitation on the Pacific side of the AK Pen
and Kodiak Island will also be significant, although not as much
as initially shown several days ago. On the western or backside of
these low pressure systems, some strong cold air advection will
move into the Pribilofs and Eastern Aleutians, which will bring
some heavy snow showers and possible blowing snow through Saturday
night.

On Saturday, the ridge holding those lows in place will weaken,
allowing the front over Kodiak to slide eastward and bring
precipitation to the southern Kenai peninsula. A secondary low is
forecast to form just south of the Kenai and move into the Gulf of
Alaska, which should keep down-inlet windflow for Southcentral and
keep the weekend cool. Unfortunately, this northerly flow looks to
remain pretty dry, decreasing any chances of snow for the
northern portions of Southcentral. Tuesday looks like it will
clear out over most of the mainland. By Wednesday, the forecast
models are struggling to agree on a solution. Currently, the GFS,
EC and Canadian agree on bringing a strong low up toward the AK
Pen from the north Pacific. However, previous runs have shown
significantly different solutions, so confidence in the day 7
forecast is low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130>132 150 155 160 165 180 181 185.
 Gale Warning 119 120 136>139 170>179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...LF