Gale Warning 707, NWS Anchorage, AK

082 
FZAK52 PAFC 041225
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-050145-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 350 nm north of Kiska moves to 95 nm southwest of St 
Paul Island at 997 mb for Wed morning. The associated front moves 
over the Aleutians and Bering through Wed morning. A 987 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 225 nm southwest of Attu with its associated 
front approaching the Western Aleutians by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-050145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-050145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-050145-
Bristol Bay-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-050145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 40 kt becoming
SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-050145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-050145-
Unalaska Bay-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-050145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-050145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-050145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-050145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-050145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-050145-
Adak to Kiska-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-050145-
Kiska to Attu-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-050145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-050145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-050145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-050145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

735 
FZAK52 PAFC 050001
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051245-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 mb low 310 nm northeast of Adak moves to 230 nm northeast of
Adak by Tue afternoon at 995 mb then to 70 nm northeast of St
Paul Island by Wed afternoon at 994 mb. A 989 mb low 200 nm west
of Shemya Tue night moves to 140 nm west of Adak at 985 mb by Wed
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051245-
Bristol Bay-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051245-
Unalaska Bay-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051245-
Adak to Kiska-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051245-
Kiska to Attu-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. Snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray N of Cape
Newenham.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray from Saint
Matthew Island N.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Two low pressure systems are impacting the forecast area this
morning. One over the western Bering is feeding colder more
unstable air through the central Bering and Aleutians. The second
much more impactful one for mainland Alaska is still centered well
south of the eastern Aleutians, but its moisture field extends
well northeastward out ahead of it into Southcentral. Downsloping
on strong southeast winds continues to keep Anchorage, the western
Kenai, and portions of the Matanuska Valley dry. However, snow
continues up in the Susitna Valley, where several inches of
accumulation occurred through the day. There the wind direction is
more south to southwest, which is promoting upslope flow causing
greater precipitation rates throughout the valley. Snow has been
reported in Talkeetna nearly continuously for about 24 hours now.
A cold rain continues through much of Prince William Sound this
morning as well with temps just a hair above freezing.

Precipitation-wise, most of Southwest Alaska remains much quieter.
Occasional shallow snow showers have occurred in Bethel, and while
fog was a factor through portions of Bristol Bay earlier tonight,
it has since dissipated as the low well south of the Aleutians
approaches and creates a drier more offshore flow in Southwest
Alaska.

A soon-to-be very familiar upper level pattern is the cause of the
active weather in Southcentral with relatively quiet conditions in
Southwest Alaska. A deep trough centered over the western Bering
is where any semblance of cold air exists now and will remain for
the foreseeable future, meanwhile a building ridge over much of
western North America, including eastern Alaska continues to
strengthen. Thus, in between these upper level features, a warm,
wet weather pattern is setting up.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models begin the next few days in decent agreement regarding a
strengthening low centered well south of the Aleutians, tracking
the center near southern Kodiak Island Sunday evening and then
turning northwestward across the Alaska Range into Southwest
Alaska. The next low (or set of lows) is far less well-resolved
resulting in large disagreements between the models for a couple
reasons. The primary one is it's much weaker than the first low
regardless of the model choice, and is thus much more difficult
for the models to resolve. The second reason is that the low is
moving into Alaska from the south. And while this will be a very
common theme for the foreseeable future, south of Alaska is the
Pacific Ocean, which has much fewer observations (both upper air
and surface), than any land mass. Thus, there is much less data
being supplied to the models from that portion of the world that
isn't calculated by the models themselves, so they have much less
to go on to start resolving the weaker systems that track here
from that direction.

Thus with regards to model choice, due to the wide disagreement
there are between them by day 2 and beyond, an ensemble approach
taking the favorable portions of several different solutions was
used. Most significant forecast changes were on the local scale.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Wind shear
concerns will also persist through much of the day as light
northerly winds continue at the surface with stronger southeast
winds moving over them at 2,000 ft above ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With the major low taking a track to near Kodiak and then
northwestward it is putting Southcentral Alaska the Gulf of
Alaska right in the warm advection section of the storm. This is
causing some precipitation-type challenges in the forecast to
determine when and where snow (or the chance of snow) will mix
with or turn to rain. Numerous locations along the Gulf coast are
already rain but inland areas and higher elevations are more
challenging.

Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley will likely not see any
precipitation today due to the strong cross-barrier flow. However,
by late afternoon or this evening the southeast winds should move
into the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley bringing
temperatures approaching or exceeding 40 degrees so any
precipitation by this afternoon should be rain for those areas.
This will be the first chinook in a while with warm, above
freezing temperatures and gusty winds.

The Susitna Valley will also see a lot of downsloping today
(after snow early this morning). The Western side of the valley
where it starts to ascend the Alaska Range will see significant
snowfall through this system though the more heavily populated
sections will mostly downslope out.

The western Kenai peninsula will be mostly downsloped, but the far
western part with most of the population will be close to the
dividing line between the downslope and rain today. Tomorrow will
be a windy day there as Gale force winds from the south will build
in the Inlet. Cold advection will be associated with the southwest
winds but it looks like all precipitation should remain rain
through tomorrow. This will be something to keep watch as any snow
would limit visibilities in the gusty winds.

The eastern Kenai Peninsula will be at increased avalanche risk
due to the precipitation and strong winds in the system.

In addition to the widespread Gale and Storm warnings in the
marine areas, sea heights today into tonight will be between 20
and 30 feet for a good portion of the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Some lingering showers and patchy fog scattered around the
Bristol Bay area early this morning will dissipate quickly, as a
rapidly intensifying North Pacific low pushes its associated front
across the Alaska and Aleutian ranges this morning. This low will
track just west of Kodiak Island by tonight, aided by a strong
southerly jet advecting copious amounts of moisture and warm air
into southwest. The associated warm front out ahead of this low
will move ashore this morning, spreading precipitation first
across the AKPen, Bristol Bay area, and lower Kuskokwim Valley,
and then northwestward into the Kuskokwim Delta by this afternoon.
Over the Bristol Bay area, precipitation will initially fall as
snow and begin to mix and change over to rain as upper level
temperatures warm aloft and mix down to the surface by this
afternoon from south to north. Any rain over the area will
transition back to snow by Monday morning, as colder air from
the Bering wraps around the back end of the system and filters
over the southwest mainland.

Precipitation over the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley
should mostly fall as snow, before tapering off by Monday
afternoon. Gusty winds will accompany the warm front, leading to
areas of blowing snow reducing visibilities to 1/2 mile or less at
times over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon through tonight. By
Monday evening, the system will push north out of the area
bringing a return of colder and drier conditions through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low will move northward into the Aleutian Range today,
bringing some warmer air and a rain/snow mix over the eastern
Bering and Aleutians. By this evening, colder air will begin to
advect down over the eastern Bering and Aleutians and change the
precipitation predominantly back to snow through Monday afternoon.
The colder air mentioned above, along with a tightening gradient
over the area will also bring some gusty north to northwest winds
to the eastern Bering/Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday
morning through Monday. For the western Bering and Aleutians, a
persistent low over the far western Bering will continue to bring
cold air into the area from the west, as it weakens and tracks
through the Bering through Tuesday morning. This will lead to cold
and blustery conditions as well as widespread snow showers and
gusty winds over the western and Central Aleutians/Bering through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Although the overall pattern in the long term forecast has
remained consistent, the models have been highly variable on
moving individual features through the pattern. Confidence is
moderate that next week will be warmer and windier for
the mainland, and cooler with showers for the Bering Sea. There is
some agreement that there will be a few low pressure systems that
move northward into the Gulf of Alaska, but the exact timing and
strength of these remains a mystery. Regardless, with this
pattern, residents in Southcentral and Southwest Alaska should
expect periods of southeasterly winds, with precipitation on the
windward sides of the mountains. Right now, none of these systems
appear to be particularly strong, although with warming
temperatures, precip type will be a forecast challenge for the
Kenai Peninsula, lower Susitna and Matanuska Valley, Anchorage,
and Bristol Bay. Elsewhere the precipitation should remain all
snow.

Confidence in the Bering Sea forecast isn't any higher in the long
term, although the variability in the forecast will have less of
an impact. The features moving through the Bering Sea during this
time are not expected to be strong, and winds are not even
expected to reach gale strength. However, the differing locations
of each individual low could mean significant differences in wind
direction as we move forward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 119 125 131 132 150 351 352.
Gale Warning: 120 129 130 136 138 139 140 155 160 165 176 177 178
180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
940 AM AKST SUN DEC 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     SNOW             14 ESE SKWENTNA         61.94N 150.99W
12/03/2017  M10.5 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

&&

RA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1022 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-040730-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-
Western Prince William Sound-Northeast Prince William Sound-
Southeast Prince William Sound-Copper River Basin-Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, Chickaloon, Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
Cooper Landing, Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, Moose Pass, Valdez,
Thompson Pass, Cordova, Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson,
Slana, Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
1022 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...Windy, Wet and Warm...

A developing storm system and leading weather front will bring
unsettled weather to much of Southcentral Alaska through Monday.
Gale to storm force winds are expected across much of the
northern Gulf of Alaska along with many coastal marine areas
through tonight. Strong pressure and terrain driven winds are
expected from the Copper River Basin, through the Matanuska
Valley, to the Kenai Peninsula. The strongest of the gap winds
will be along Turnagain Arm and through Portage Valley were winds
will gust to around 70 mph this afternoon through tonight before
diminishing on Monday. As the storm system moves inland across
Southcentral on Monday afternoon, strong southerly winds will
develop from Cook Inlet to across the Anchorage Bowl.

This system will also bring above freezing temperatures across
many areas which will hold through tonight. The brunt of the
precipitation with this system will fall along the Gulf Coast and
eastern Kenai Peninsula as rain or a mix at low elevations.
Downslope drying west of the coastal mountains will keep most
inland areas relatively dry through tonight.

For further updates please visit www.weather.gov/afc