Gale Warning 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

985 
FZAK51 PAFC 290040
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291345-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front in the southwestern Gulf will move to the
northeastern Gulf tonight...then moves inland and dissipates. A 
964 mb low 40 nm south of Cold Bay Wed afternoon moves to 240 nm 
southeast of Sitkinak at 992 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-291345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 14 
ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291345-
Resurrection Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers, heavy
at times.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291345-
Prince William Sound-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain, heavy at times.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers, Heavy at times.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291345-
Port Valdez-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers, heavy at times.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291345-
Valdez Narrows-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers, heavy at times.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291345-
Valdez Arm-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291345-
Passage Canal-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers, heavy at times.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  and snow showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291345-
Barren Islands East-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft except 15 ft N of Dangerous
Cape.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291345-
Chiniak Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291345-
Marmot Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291345-
Shelikof Strait-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-291345-
Kachemak Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low that has been the main feature the past two days is
rapidly dissipating as it moves across the Alaska Peninsula to just
south of Kodiak Island. The new major feature is a low tracking
into the central Aleutians today which is the source of the high
wind warning in that area. This storm is not as strong as the
previous one but will still have some areas of hurricane force
winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are handling the synoptic situation well with the biggest
uncertainty with the rapidly developing low south of the
Aleutians that will merge with the main Bering Sea low Tuesday.
The main issue is how far east and north the secondary low moves
as it wraps into the main and as this will impact the winds and
precipitation around the Alaska Peninsula and possibly into
Bristol Bay. The higher resolution NAM is doing probably the best
job tracking a low in the northwestern Gulf and its movement
toward the Kenai Peninsula. This is not a large feature, but its
appearance on satellite imagery suggests there could be some
higher winds and enhanced precipitation near it.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Overall expect warmer temperatures, decreasing winds with snow
along the coast. The pattern remains active for the area,
however, most of the action is along the north gulf coast. A weak
front has pushed inland, leaving the coast temporarily in a
showery pattern for the late afternoon and evening. A compact
disturbance is approaching the coast and will turn snow more
steady along the coast for a short period tonight before turning
back to showers during the day Tuesday. Another stronger front
affects the area on Tuesday night, with rain at sea level and snow
not far off the surface. These fronts and disturbances will
mainly affect the coast. Interior areas will remain dry. There is
a chance for snow showers on Wednesday, further inland, as upper
level temperatures become more conducive for showers while some
weak disturbances come through the flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A few showers are expected to develop along a weak upper level
trough which propagates north across the region tonight. Broad
east to southeasterly flow in the lower levels will cause
downsloping on the lee side of the ranges; therefore, snow
accumulations will be light across valleys. A few locations near
coastal Bristol Bay warm enough for precipitation to fall as
light rain. Temperatures will moderate slightly warmer through mid
week as low pressure across the Bering brings another warm surge
on Tuesday. There is a slight chance for freezing rain through
Wednesday as the surface freezing line orients east to west along
Bristol Bay. Only trace accumulations are expected since the
system bringing precipitation lacks organization.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A trough along the eastern Bering is shoved eastward tonight as
the next low organizes across the southern Bering. This system
originated as a North Pacific frontal system, and slows its track
as it crosses into the Bering into Tuesday early morning. A
northern wave moves along the back side of this low and anchors
the low just south of the Pribilof Islands on Tuesday. The core
rapidly deepens as cold air advects in from the western Bering on
the backside of the low. The high wind warning was continued for
the Central Aleutians as winds are expected to quickly increase as
the low deepens tonight. There is still a bit of uncertainty with
this storm system as it spans over 700 miles in a data void area
over the North Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning late Wednesday, the weather over most of the South
Mainland will become much quieter as the low over the Eastern
Bering cross the AK pen and dissipates over the North Pacific,
leaving generally cold and clear conditions. Guidance has also
trended much further south with this low on Thursday, meaning that
without a strong pressure or thermal gradient along the North Gulf
Coast, the persistent outflow winds that have blown through the
area recently are not expected to develop again. Over the Western
Bering, a gale force front entering the area late Wednesday will
slowly spread through the area bringing rain/snow and gusty
southerly winds that will be weaker than the high wind events
that moved through the Aleutians since the Thanksgiving holiday.

This front will then enter the Southwest Mainland late Friday,
bringing snow to that area before creating a triple point low in
the Gulf sometime on Saturday. The models continue to struggle
with the timing and intensity of this development, however they
all create a triple point sometime on Saturday which will track
into the North Gulf. The exact details of the impacts of this low
will need to be determined as model agreement improves, but at
this point it appears that there will be increasing chances of
snow along the North Gulf coast and Southcentral this weekend,
along with the potential for gap winds through the usual areas
such as Turnagain Arm the Matanuska Valley. Afterwards model
agreement begins to break down with the track/intensity of what
looks to be a very active pattern for the Gulf late this
weekend/early next week as a blocking ridge sets up over the
Pacific NW, leaving the Gulf exposed to a deep southerly jet. The
general impact of this pattern change will be to shift the most
active weather further east into the Gulf region for early next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 174>177.
 Storm Warning 132 150 155 170 172 173 178.
 Gale Warning 130 131 136>139 160 165 171 179>181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DEK