Gale Warning 631, NWS Anchorage, AK

774 
FZAK51 PAFC 180045
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-181315-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 mb low 190 nm southeast of Middleton Island will move to
275 nm southwest of Sitka at 1000 mb Sat afternoon and then 
dissipate. A 989 mb low 35 nm north of King Salmon early Sun 
morning will move to 50 nm east of Kodiak City and strengthen to 
972 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-181315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River Delta 
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas building to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-181315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-181315-
Resurrection Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-181315-
Prince William Sound-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-181315-
Port Valdez-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Guts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-181315-
Valdez Narrows-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-181315-
Valdez Arm-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 7 
ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-181315-
Passage Canal-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier in the evening.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-181315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray near Kamishak
Bay.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray near Kamishak
Bay in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-181315-
Barren Islands East-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-181315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt except NW 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-181315-
Chiniak Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in evening. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-181315-
Marmot Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in evening. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-181315-
Shelikof Strait-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-181315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-181315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-181315-
Kachemak Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

694 
FZAK51 PAFC 181244
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190100-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 mb low 250 nm southeast of Middleton Island will move to 
385 nm southeast of Middleton Island at 1001 mb Sat afternoon and
then dissipate. A 987 mb low over Kodiak Island early Sun morning
will move to 215 nm south of Kodiak City and strengthen to 970 mb
by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-190100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190100-
Resurrection Bay-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190100-
Prince William Sound-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190100-
Port Valdez-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190100-
Valdez Narrows-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late this afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190100-
Valdez Arm-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190100-
Passage Canal-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier through this morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late this afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190100-
Barren Islands East-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt, Seas 18 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, W wind 30
kt becoming NW 50 kt in the afternoon, Seas 9 ft building to 18 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190100-
Chiniak Bay-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190100-
Marmot Bay-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190100-
Shelikof Strait-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Snow and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-190100-
Kachemak Bay-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an eastward moving upper level trough over Southcentral
Alaska and another over southwest Alaska. Snow with the
Southcentral trough is generally located east of a line from
Seward to Anchorage to Talkeetna. Some snow/rain showers are
associated with the southwest trough. There is a large ridge over
the Bering Sea, centered just east of 180 degrees longitude.
Strong northwest flow at all levels is developing from the western
Gulf through the eastern/central Bering/Aleutians. There is an
upper level low over northeast Russia, with a trough extending
southward into the northwest Pacific. An associated front is
moving into the western Aleutians and southwest Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in reasonable agreement through the short
term portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). Some timing
differences begin to develop on Saturday with a couple of fronts.
One of these is a warm front along the Alaskan west coast, and
another is a cold/occluded front over the central Bering and
western/central Aleutians. Forecast confidence is thus near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR and IFR conditions are possible through this evening
in the wake of the snow from earlier today, then VFR conditions
and light winds are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread snowfall will continue dissipating from west-east this
evening, providing the highest amounts from Valdez/Cordova
northward into the Copper River basin where a few inches of new
accumulation is possible. There is an outside snow shower
redevelopment throughout the Cook Inlet, and in particular the
southern portions as a strong shortwave quickly descends towards
Kodiak Island. This should be a brief round of snow showers that
isn't expected to last more than a few hours, but it may provide
for a quick shot of light accumulations. A second concern tonight
over Northern Cook Inlet/Susitna Valley will be determining how
long the low stratus that quickly developed behind the snow today
will linger. There is a chance that the incoming shortwave could
help mix this out, however confidence is higher that this will be
a persistent layer that would hold off until Friday to burn off.

The bigger concern from the incoming shortwave will be with
strong northwesterly winds from the Barren Islands southward into
Kodiak Island, the highest of which should occur late this
evening/early Friday as the shortwave moves over Kodiak. This wave
has the potential to produce a gust or two approaching warning
level, but there is reasonable confidence that winds should
remain safely below warning level throughout the event. The
strong winds will then spread to the north Gulf Coast on Friday,
especially to the Seward, Whittier, and Valdez areas where another
round of strong and gusty (but sub-warning level) outflow winds
are expected to develop and continue into early Saturday. These
winds will be the primary forecast concern throughout the area for
Friday, as what has become a common weather pattern of sunny
skies and offshore flow continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday evening)

A fairly decent coverage of rain and snow showers is currently
ongoing across much of the region, and this should continue
through the evening as another disturbance aloft crosses the area.
Brisk northwest winds will continue along the coast through
Friday morning. Further inland, snow will persist longer along
the western upslope regions of the Kuskokwim Mountains and the
Alaska Range, with breezy conditions continuing here as well,
especially for any passes.

Our attention then turns to a much more potent system which will
rapidly deepen as it moves from the northern Bering Sea into
southwest Alaska. The models show a 980mb low in the Hooper Bay
vicinity by late Saturday evening, with a warm front extending to
the southeast as it straddles the coast. The low will dive
southeast towards King Salmon through Sunday morning, with the
warm front pushing inland somewhat. Meanwhile, very strong dry
advection will develop following an attendant cold frontal
passage, with strong winds developing. Similar to yesterday's
storm, another strong tropospheric lowering will help compress the
air below it, helping increase winds via mixing and downward
momentum transfer processes.

As it stands right now, most of the interior (roughly east of a
Bethel to Dillingham line) will see predominately snow, with
several inches possible east of there, and a wintry mix closer to
the coast. Very strong wind gusts will develop Saturday night into
Sunday near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday evening)

Strong wind gusts will persist through tonight along the AKPEN
and to its south, especially for the mariners out of bays and
passes. Gusts over land look to continue up towards 70 mph
overnight, with locally higher gusts possible over the waters to
its south. A brief reduction in winds will commence for Friday,
before the next strong storm moves into the region for later
Saturday into Sunday. As a strong storm drops southeast across
southwest Alaska, an attendant cold front will sweep across the
area, with widespread precipitation developing.

Winds will rapidly increase following frontal passage for reasons
described above. Overall, look for sustain winds to potentially
reach hurricane force over both land and water if the models
don't change their forecast solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Expect near to below normal temperatures across southern Alaska,
with periodic snow across the Southwest. Fronts will dissipate by
the time they reach Southcentral Alaska. Expect continued gap
winds along the north Gulf coast.

The long range forecast begins Saturday evening with a transition
in the upper level pattern taking place. A cold outflow pattern
with gap flow along the north Gulf coast will briefly give way to
a front and low pressure system sliding into the western Gulf
Sunday morning. The front will bring rain to Kodiak, and snow to
the Kenai Peninsula, potentially as far north as a line from
Skwentna through Anchorage/Palmer. The most likely place to see
accumulating snow would be from Kenai through Homer. Going into
the extended forecast, we return to a more familiar outflow
pattern. However there are differences between what we've been
seeing to the upcoming pattern.

The upper jet looks to be more zonal in the upcoming pattern while
the low-levels remain conducive for weaker outflow and gap winds.
The jet stream looks to be very active and progressive with
multiple embedded with a storm track from the northwest Pacific
through the southern mainland/Gulf of Alaska. Expect a few west
to east moving fronts to approach the mainland and weaken through
next week. Each of these systems will bring cold air from the
Arctic on the backside, which will prevent the progressive pattern
from moving into the Interior.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 127 136 137 138 155 160 165 180 181 185.
		 Storm 130 131 132 150.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 130.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MTL