Gale Warning 622, NWS Anchorage, AK

386 
FZAK51 PAFC 150038
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151315-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb low 40 nm west of Seldovia Wed afternoon moves to 50 nm
west of Middleton Island Thu afternoon at 993mb. A second 1009 mb
low 80 nm southwest of Akhiok Wed afternoon moves to 440 south of
Akhiok at 1007mb.

$$

PKZ119-151315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta
diminishing through the day. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
 Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151315-
Resurrection Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151315-
Prince William Sound-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151315-
Port Valdez-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt diminishing after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151315-
Valdez Narrows-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt diminishing after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151315-
Valdez Arm-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt diminishing after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151315-
Passage Canal-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151315-
Barren Islands East-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151315-
Chiniak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151315-
Marmot Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151315-
Shelikof Strait-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt through bays and passes in
the evening. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151315-
Kachemak Bay-
338 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt towards Cook Inlet in the
evening. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern remains much the same as it has been for the last
week. A slightly negatively upper level ridge is over the eastern
Bering Sea. There is an upper level trough over Northwest Canada,
with a closed low over the southeast Gulf. Strong northerly flow
aloft is over most of southern Alaska, with strong offshore flow
at the lower levels. There is an upper low over northeast Russia.
This low has a couple of associated fronts. There is a warm front
stretching northwest from the Pribilofs. There is an occluded
front over the western and central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast (Wednesday afternoon). There are some
differences in precipitation type as a front moves through
southwest Alaska on Wednesday, which is typical due to the
differences in terrain and physics amongst the models. Forecast
confidence is higher than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Breezy northerly winds are
expected to continue with the fairly strong offshore gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
Offshore winds remain the big story to start off the week. The
ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea continues to allow upper level
energy to filter down through central AK. Meanwhile, cold air
continues to settle in over the Copper River Basin. The jet is
also starting to slide sightly further east towards Prince William
Sound. As expected, these ingredients have come together to
produce some rather impressive winds across much of the Northern
Gulf Coast and favored portions of Southcentral (Mat Valley,
Copper River Basin). The winds have finally come up markedly at
Valdez and Thompson Pass as well. We expect them to continue into
Tue morning as the jet streak moves ever closer tonight. Winds
have made for some dramatic blowing dust (on satellite) over the
Copper River Delta. As winds continue in the Mat Valley, we also
expect some dust to get picked up and blown around there as well.

The ridge over the Bering will make slow eastward progress into
Wed. This will push the jet and associated upper level energy
further to the east. It will also bring a switch for many places
from cold to warm air advection. The net effect will be a gradual
weakening of the winds across the area and a slight warming
trend. The winds will hang on longest over the Cordova/Copper
River Delta.

For those wondering when the next chance of snow will be, please
see the Long Term Discussion for further details.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Thursday)
The main forecast challenge over the next few days will be
precipitation type and amounts. A cold front currently located
across the western Aleutians will continue its eastward trek,
reaching the Kuskokwim Delta south to AKPEN region by Tuesday
evening. This front will clear southwest Alaska by Thursday,
when it will be located over south central portions of the state.
Good surface convergence is seen in the model fields and we
expect widespread precipitation to develop along this feature
as it continues its eastward movement.

While this occurs, cold air near the surface will continue to
spill into the region from the north/northeast. Meanwhile, a
strong disturbance aloft diving southeast across the area will
induce weak surface cyclogenesis near Bristol Bay. This will allow
marine air to make a push inland, while colder air to the east
funnels into the region from central parts of the state. This
causes some precipitation type issues as some guidance shows a
wedge of warmer air aloft moving over the more shallow colder
air, leading to a freezing rain setup for some locations.

Overall forecast changes were minimal, with the first change being
for a slightly slower frontal progression. This in turn allows the
colder air to make more inroads westward, where the frozen
precipitation line was adjusted accordingly. Lastly, with a slower
timing of the front and good upper-level support, precipitation
amounts (both rain and snow) were bumped up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Thursday)
An area of high pressure located across the eastern Bering this
evening, will get pushed towards central portions of the state as
a cold front across the western Aleutians advances east.
Widespread precipitation is likely along the front as it continues
it progression.

Strong northwesterly flow will develop following frontal passage,
with gale force winds a good bet as this occurs, and possibly a
few gusts near storm force for the Bristol Bay region. A ridge of
high pressure will briefly build across the southern Bering
behind the front by mid week, but, the pattern looks to remain
unsettled.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Wednesday afternoon, a
shortwave trough is expected to start its journey across the
southern Mainland from the eastern Bering and moving across the
area through Thursday night. Whereas to the west over the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, an upper level ridge will continue to amplify
over much of the area through Friday. The above mentioned upper
trough will begin to shear out as it moves inland across Southwest
Alaska, but it should have enough moisture to squeeze out some
snow over Southcentral sometime on Thursday. This trough will be
quickly followed by another low amplitude shortwave trough in
northwest flow which should bring back more dry and cold northerly
flow to Southern Alaska Friday into Saturday. This will be a
brief repeat of the offshore flow pattern we have seen the past
week or so.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the global models continue to hint
at a potent shortwave trough crossing over the Bering Sea and
moving over top the semi-permanent high pressure ridge over the
Bering. This potential storm could be a significant weather maker
for Southern Alaska for the weekend, but this is still quite a
ways out to get into specifics, with some question about whether
it will happen at all. Currently the GFS model is keeping the
system further west, tracking through the eastern Bering/Aleutians
and AKPen, then into the north Pacific. On the other hand, the
ECMWF is showing this system tracking through the southern
Mainland and into the Gulf, which would have a much bigger impact
over the area. With the given differences confidence remains low
in either solution, so we will continue to monitor this
potentially impactful system over the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 121 127 128 131 132 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...TP